Equinties - Royal Ascot day 1

Gm Equinauts

Okay, a couple of singles haven’t gone in when people expect them too, but ever since Cheltenham we’ve been on an absolute roll. April, May and (so far in) June being massive months for landing good bets for this newsletter and yesterdays good single setting us up nicely for a big week ahead.

If you’ve caged the betting chimp and been strict in not giving much back to the bookies, your banks will be growing. If when you land bet’s your mindset is ‘that was a good win, I can afford a speccy play on this now’, you’ll never win long term. Protect the bank at all costs.

This week is a big test for practicing good habits. It’s Royal Ascot week and there are is overwhelming amount of top quality racing.

Tempting though it may be, you do NOT need to bet them all.

Moreover, rain has made the going good today. Good ground is the worst. Anything can pop up on good ground, which is why we like to bet horses in the extremities (concrete or slop) as often half the field typically can’t win.

Play sensible, play the TOTE Fantasy and enjoy the racing.

Now, let’s dive in.

BGP FANTASY LEAGUE COMP

The TOTE’s Fantasy game features BRIGHTON today!

Only joking, its day 1 of Royal Ascot - test your skills by playing and lock the chimp up so you don’t do your b*llocks every race. It’s a long 5 days and you don’t need risk on in every race.

Use code QHZ36G to add your stable to the BGP league.

ROYAL ASCOT DAY 1

14.30 GROUP 1 QUEEN ANNE STAKES

Named after the founder of Ascot, the Queen Anne is the first race of Royal Ascot. Obviously a Group 1, it's for the older horses over a stiff mile.

The last three running's of this race have been won by the short faves but this year's renewal see's two vying for market favouritism.

The DUBAWI globe trotting superstar MODERN GAMES is just heading the market at 7/4. Bar a sloppy trip to Deauville, this lad has not been out the top 3 in 9x Gr 1's, winning four of them. That's mental.

INSPIRAL is close behind at 15/8. Last seen bombing out in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes, this is her seasonal debut...you're gonna have to trust she's fit and ready to go!

NATIVE TRAIL is 6/1 and hasn't shown up for a while, the last race he won was a weak af Irish Guineas so he'd have to be on some magic juice to win this today you'd think.

CHINDIT has been good to us but he's not quite Gr1 level. He's already been pumped by the fave so can't have him now.

Verdict: Most of the horses below CHINDIT in the market have form with each other making this race really a two horse race between the lesser seen INSPIRAL and MODERN GAMES and we'll side with the latter.

15.05 GROUP 2 COVENTRY STAKES

It's a fast 6 furlongs for some of the UK's sharpest rockets and we have found the winner of this race the last two years in BERKSHIRE SHADOW and BRADSELL. We thought we knew the winner of this year's renewal a long way out but he's not been targeted for Royal Ascot so we will have to wait for him.

ASADNA is the drifting fave now having been smashed in after his demolition job at Ripon and is subject to the lamest argument on Racing Twitter, ever. He beat absolutely fuck all and this might be the worst form line for a fave coming into Royal Ascot. Literally the only thing this lad has going for him is the ground (at time of writing, it's firm but some showers pre-off are expected).

RIVER TIBER is two for two, remains unbeaten and is responsible for the sell off on ASADNA. There are some useful horses out of his second dam and he's by 40m euro panic buy WOOTTON BASSETT. He's done nothing wrong despite winning his races in a workman like fashion. It’s telling AOB only sends this lad and if he wins, he ties with Stoutey for most winning Royal Ascot trainer.

As a US raider, FANDOM is the unknown in this race (and drifting too, 10's out to 16's at time of writing). He is by SHOWCASING out of a PIVOTAL mare... PIVOTAL is a top, top dam sire. Ward has to be feared but in recent years you'd have done well to cancel the noise out and take him on.

Another unbeaten horse, GIVEMETHEBEATBOYS, is next in the market at 4's but is by BUNGLE INTHEJUNGLE who's not a sexy 'Royal Ascot' sire and his only good progeny really is WINTER POWER. On a blood basis only (thinking sire more than dam side, dam side is beautiful) and despite the fast ground suiting, we think he's one to take on. If a BUNGLE INTHEJUNGLE wins this today, I’ll eat a shoe.

BUCANERO FUERTE is the second WOOTTON BASSETT in the line up at 16's and out of mare who's produced rockets in Prix de l'Abbaye winner WOODED and top class handicapper BEAT LE BON, they are full brothers. He won easily lto at the Curragh with this ears pricked, beating STURLASSON who went on to split NOCHE MAGICA and ALABAMA lto, we think that's good form. He should be versatile on ground with WOODED enjoying slop but BEAT LE BON needing quick and he could spring a surprise for Amo at a double figure price.

EMPEROR’S SUN secretly brings good form to this race having beaten Burkes KYLIAN. He’ll need it rattling, might get away with good and, like most Fahey horses, we expect him to come on for the run and be in contention.

16/1 the field.

Verdict: RIVERY TIBER is bred like a beauty and could well bring AOB level with Stoute in Roya Ascot’s most winning trainer tally. If you don’t like shorties, BUCANERO FUERTE and EMPERORS SUN are the 16/1 ew plays to take on the two shorties heading the market, with preference for the former.

15.40 GROUP 1 KINGS STAND STAKES

The first sprint of the meeting, blink and you’ll miss them over the 5f. There’s no room for error, jockeys will have a grasp of some mane as well as the reins when they leave the stalls. Knuckles will be white. The game plans will be well planned out beforehand because similar to what Mike Tyson said “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.”

HIGHFIELD PRINCESS has been very solid at the head of the market leading up to today and for good reason. She was champion sprinter last year and returned with a good second on seasonal debut getting beat by a race fit opponent whose improving and HF was conceding 5lbs to her.

COOLNAGATTA from a betting standpoint is her biggest rival, she brings Gr1 Australian sprinting form to the table having won the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes at Flemington. The second from that race has since won a Gr1 so it’s solid enough form. A filly at this time of year coming from Australia isn’t easy however and she may travel like a Ferrari in the race but come home like a Morris Minor when she comes off the bridle and meets the rising ground.

For some reason MANACCAN is in as third favourite, probably because of his rider more than anything. He was third on his seasonal debut and looks to be improving but will need to improve a lot to trouble the judge today.

MITBAAHY looks like a really solid ew shout. Drawn next to HIGHFIELD PRINCESS, David Egan will be hoping to get on her dress train and then it’s just a case of hanging on. He gives her 3lbs which isn’t ideal but he ran well lto considering he was on the wrong part of the track and the race unfolded away from him, he also got too far back which shouldn’t be an issue today, in fact the Ascot straight course can really suit a horse who can close like him.

DRAMATISED won MITBAAHY’s last race coming up the stands rail under Buick. She looked very good as a 2yo winning at the meeting last year and has clearly trained on. This is a significant step up in grade and although she gets a fillies and age allowance, 3yos don’t have a good record in the race.

Of the others; CANNONBALL from Oz needs to improve, was 3rd in a Gr1 on his last start, form doesn’t look great. TWILIGHT CALLS needs a career best at the age of 5, probably unlikely. TWILIGHT GLEAMING looks a social runner for connections who enjoy the week, wouldn’t be without a chance, she’s capable of paying for the flight fare. MOONIESTA was 4th in the race last year, she’ll be like a church mouse looking to pick up the crumbs.

Verdict: HIGHFIELD PRINCESS looked very good back end of last year but ran in the wrong race at this meeting in 2022. She’s a horse who ticks all the boxes and the one they all have to beat., today’s NAP.

16.20 ST JAMES’S PALACE STAKES

So who’s the best 3yo miler? The English 2000 Guineas winner, Irish 2000 Guineas winner and French 2000 Guineas runner up go to war. This is going to be a belter.

CHALDEAN was the best 2yo of this field. He won the Dewhurst and came back as a 3yo and won the 2000 Guineas. By Frankel, he’s won on Good ground and soft ground, will he handle faster conditions? Generally FRANKEL’S do, he doesn’t have a knee action so presumably he’ll be fine. The one to beat, this is the horse they all have to raise there game to.

ROYAL SCOTSMAN will have his followers. A second in the Dewhurst and an eye-catching 3rd in the 2000 Guineas on ground he probably didn’t like and he pulled for about 6 furlongs. Around a bend today and a good pace, he is the fly in the ointment. Excuses in the Irish 2000 Guineas - a bad draw, a bad ride and apparently he had sore feet. Don’t underestimate him!

PADDINGTON is by SIYOUNI, who is by PIVOTAL. Generally this sire line prefer softer conditions, this lad is a fine example. He has ran 5 times, 3 times he has won on soft or heavy, and he has won on good ground. Aiden will be on the phone to the clerk of the course asking him to put more water on the round course! Form ties with CHALDEAN suggest this will be a good contest.

CICERO’S GIFT and MOSTABSHIR have both ran 3 times, the former unbeaten. Charlie Hills’ runner was a 32,000gns yearling and he looks well brought. After his win at Goodwood there was talk of him going to The French Derby, the Prix du Jockey Club. He looks like he is screaming out for 1m2f, will this tight Mile be on the short side?

The Gosden’s love this race, MOSTABSHIR is their only runner. He comes from the same stall 6 as Palace Pier did when he won this in 2020. Quite an unconventional route, lost on his seasonal debut and then bolted up at York. This is deeper waters for both of them.

ISAAC SHELBY was a smart 2yo, he won the Superlative Stakes on good to firm. He then bombed out in the Dewhurst and was next seen ‘beating’ CHALDEAN in the Greenham this year. CHALDEAN looked like he was toying with him at Newbury though. Brian Meehans challenger came up marginally short in the French 2000 Guineas, normally a race a little behind in quality than the English and Irish equivalent. Nice profile though, and a juicy price if you do like him.

Let’s cover all bases. GALERON looks like he’ll run his race but possibly wants a step up in trip. INDESTRUCTIBLE is probably not good enough, a good 2yo but there is a feeling his classmates have caught up with him. CHARYN wants 6f, his petrol gauge will be running out quickly and it would be a surprise if he finished in the mix.

Verdict: We’ve backed him for all his wins, why the hell would we desert CHALDEAN today?

17.35 LISTED CLASS 1 WOLFERTON STAKES

We have a full field of runners for the Wolferton Stakes this year and it’s SAGA for HM The King who tops the market.

This four-year-old for the Gosden’s came very close to landing the Britannia Stakes last year and is winless in seven attempts, though connections have swerved the Royal Hunt Cup for this – he might be up against it class-wise.

Different to the top of the market, BUCKAROO has good Group 1 form having finished fourth lto in the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan and fourth in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud in October.

This is the easiest field he has faced since his win over Wexford Native at the Curragh last year and should go close.

The unsettled horse in the market is FRANCESCO CLEMENTE who was the 5/1 favourite, drifted to 13/1, and is now 11/2.

He won his first three races and was second to KING OF CONQUEST, who reappears at 9/1, on his last start – his willingness to win lto would be a worry and it’s puzzling about the difference in prices.

At 15/1, once sent off 11/8 for ADAYAR’S Derby, BOLSHOI BALLET represents Aidan O’Brien having finished third at Newbury over two furlongs further behind HASKOY. This is an easier field and he has recorded two wins at the distance – he is interesting if back on song.

CADILLAC and POKER FACE both get their ground (we think), CADILLAC especially wants it quick. CADILLAC was second this race last year and it was only Epsom lto that he got his ground and won really well. POKER FACE and Jamie Spencer will be riding cold and will be found out the back. OTTOMAN FLEET too good for him at the start of the season, he’d be the highest rated horse if he were to line up here. OF has since won a Grade 2 in the States so the form looks good.

Verdict: We’ll tentatively select BUCKAROO who should be the class horse in the race.

TODAYS RACING

DAY 1 SELECTIONS

We’ve had a brilliant run since Cheltenham, now is NOT the time to give it all back. Use our picks to play small or choose your Fantasy team. Horses with an asterisks are the stronger selections.

14.30 MODERN GAMES

15.05 RIVER TIBER and BUCANERO FUERTE EW

15.40 HIGHFIELD PRINCESS NAP*

16.20 CHALDEAN

17.00 LAW OF THE SEA EW and TRITONIC EW

17.35 BUCKAROO EW

18.10 RULING DYNASTY EW NB*

HIGHFIELD PRINCESS is today’s NAP and good single. We think Appleby will bookend the card with MODERN GAMES and RULING DYNASTY, the last deserving a good EW single.