Equinties - rocket re-match

Gm Equinauts

Well, after all the chat yesterday about ROSALLION’s next target, sadly it turn’s out we won’t see him at all!

More on him to come… but what a shame.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

ROUND THREE, DING DING

Fine margins certainly don’t define horses as much as they effect results. We should know, we’ve been on the end of a few bad close finishes… ‘IT’S A PHOTO’ (in Thommo voice).

From GALOPIN DES CHAMPS over-jumping the last fence in the Turners (who we backed!) to KING OF STEEL just getting touched off in the 2023 Derby, you can look back through racing’s history and find unfortunate fine margins cropping up constantly.

We had another case of this on Friday at Glorious Goodwood as BIG EVS beat the well-fancied ASFOORA in the King George Stakes, though a bit of mid-race interference did hamper the runner-up (we were too busy booming on the day to mention that).

Ultimately, with a handier ride from Oisin Murphy and an easier route through the race, the Australian sprinter would have won. So, even though she was the loser, she shouldn’t lose any respect to her name.

That’s the mentality ASFOORA’s connections have ahead of her next assignment, the Nunthorpe Stakes at York, a race that will see her receive a a big 6lbs swing in the weights.

Trainer Henry Dwyer said: “She’s pretty much at her peak and a flat track should suit her better at York as she should travel better.

“She really struggled to get down the hill in the first two furlongs – it was noticeable at that point she was off the bit and scrubbed along – which is unlike her as regardless of tempo she tends to be right up there.

“Once she became balanced she let rip and just copped a couple of bumps on the way through. It wasn’t a great watch but I loved the way she hit the line even though she had a bit of adversity.”

ASFOORA is the 3/1 favourite for the Nunthorpe while BIG EVS is 9/2.

We’ve completely championed BIG EVS throughout his whole career to date, but this time, this rocket re-match might take a little more thinking.

More: https://www.racingpost.com/news/britain/the-six-pounds-is-a-fair-bit-to-turn-around-weight-swing-with-big-evs-gives-asfoora-camp-confidence-of-nunthorpe-reversal-ajxmI5e2yRPG/

FRENCH RETURN

We spoke yesterday about ROSALLION and SHAREHOLDER looking to explore French land to command and conquer, and now there is another to line up in the British invasion.

One of the big ‘will he, won’t he’ stories of the Flat season has surrounded William Haggas’ ECONOMICS and there is a loose plan set…

He went from winning the Dante oh so impressively, to heading to the Derby market, to missing the Derby entirely and then missing the obvious next target, the Eclipse.

His absence has been a shame for fans who are justt wanting to see a show, but Haggas has been quite transparent about keeping his campaign low-level. Patience is a brave tactic when other trainers would have perhaps been too over-excited enough for ust get the potential star back out on the race course asap.

But he’s set to return on Thursday in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d'Ornano!

One does have to wonder why it’s taken the yard almost three months to run him again. Has he had a setback? Growing pains? The trainer too over-cautious? Was his Dante win too good to be true?

On ECONOMICS, Haggas said: "At the moment, it’s the way we’re looking. It’s a Group 2 with no penalty and it’s a start-back race. The Juddmonte is a huge race and he’s run three times in his life. 

Asides from his Dante form being questionable, the ‘start-back’ quote doesn’t sound too bullish!?

"If we’re lucky enough to win then the Irish Champion comes into play. Going to France gives us another week until the Irish Champion, and the owner's [Isa Salman Al Khalifa] family sponsor the race.

"I don’t know what sort of horse he is – I just think he’s useful. We’ll let him do the talking, not me. He’s done nothing wrong in his career so far."

Let’s all hope he backs up that Dante performance next Thursday as it would be a bit of a shock if he fails to kick-on.

In the mean time, we’ll try and find out what he’s been doing since.

RACING X BEEF

We do love a bit of beef on X (formerly Twitter), and no we’re not talking about Elon Musk and ‘Two Tier Kier’.

Yesterday we got a whole cow’s worth of Racing Post (you know the other minor publication) versus the one and only Matt Chapman.

In summary, Tom Park of the Racing Post was a bit negative about Kieren Shoemark’s recent performances on John & Thady Gosden-trained horses…and Chappers didn’t agree.

This then sent Racing X into a spiral, with almost every one taking side’s on the matter. Two examples:

We say almost everyone, but we haven’t posted our view yet.

So let’s talk about the man who Shoey replaced…Frankie.

Boy, do we miss him. When the pocket talkers were calling for him to retire last season, we were urging people to cherish him because, quite simply, there is no one else like him.

When TRAWLERMAN beat KYPRIOS (his last defeat), that was Frankie. When MOSTAHDAF ended PADDINGTON’s hot streak, that was Frankie. The list of great rides goes on and on and on.

We’ve said for a long time in this newsletter we so wish he wasn’t retiring. He just made every thing look so, so easy. So easy in fact, that that’s what people were accustomed to.

How could Shoemark ever fill those boots!?

Shoey is a good rider, but he’s not Frankie.

It’s hard to argue that the Gosden horses have been out of form all season. Fine, INSPIRAL’s run in the Lockinge and EMILY UPJOHN’s performances all season, have been questionable (two of her last three runs have produced RPRs of 103 and 99, that’s not bad jockey-ship, that’s poor form) but it’s the Gosden’s ffs.

In pure numbers, the yard has a 20% SR for 2024 whereas the previous three years have produced 22%, 22% and 20%. It’s not a dramatic drop in form, but it’s on the lower-end of where they should be. One point Chappers.

However, the defence of Matt Chapman looks as if we in racing can’t have an opinion. Ever heard of free speech!?

“But how many winners have you ridden?” is the common retort to anyone criticising a rider. None, but we’ve watched a few… and backed them (plus, the people behind this newsletter, believe or not, can actually ride).

It’s a lame comeback.

If a plumber came to change your pipes and they left with your sink still leaking, you have the right to complain. If you complained and the plumber responded with ‘how many sinks have you repaired?’, you would want to punch that plumber.

Being a jockey is tough. There’s no one out there that denies it. You’re not only managing your own decision making, you’re managing the horses too.

But, as we see in football, rugby, cricket, tennis and pretty much other sport, there is scope to criticise if someone is performing below average at the highest level. This isn’t to try and make someone’s mental health worse (Mark Enright), this is simply to pass comment on what is happening in front of their eyes.

Because journalists and the media operate with jockeys and trainers on such a frequent basis due to the close-knit nature of the business, it’s almost as they feel they can’t say something negative (which is based on evidence) about them in the worry that they may not speak in a future interview. Some might argue it’s a similar vein to all the carnage on the UK’s city streets at the moment, but that’s another matter!

There’s a responsibility on the reporter to do their job and call out what they are seeing, though there is also a responsibility on the athlete to either ignore it or at least not to take it to heart and prove them wrong. (Thank god this newsletter exists because we say it how it is).

That was long-winded, but needed. Anyway, point to Tom Park.

Ultimately, Shoemark has scope to improve and needs to. Would the Gosden’s be with in their right to mix jockeys up a bit? YES! Racing is a multi-million £ business and everyone needs to be THE best to succeed.

Pass comment, don’t pass comment, who f*cking cares, but at the end of the day Shoey isn’t Frankie, there’s only one Frankie and that’s where the bar is set.

No one knew what they had until he left.

RISK ON

MASTER MILLINER Friday, the 18/1 SEA THE STARS brother double Saturday and the lev’d up double yesterday… it’s safe to say we’re doing okay on the betting front, let’s keep it going.

16.40 FORMIDABLE FORCE

Although his last time out form has been knocked a bit, it’s not terrible and this lad will love todays conditions versus other’s who won’t as much. He’s a 3yo so has potential to improve too. 3/1 a bet.

MISSED OUT ON THE WINNERS THIS WEEKEND? SUBSCRIBE BELOW TO ACCESS OUR WEEKENDER EDITION FOR ONLY £1 A SATURDAY!

Become a paying subscriber of Premium to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

A subscription gets you:

• • The weekender edition (Mon-Fri still free)
• • The weekends best bets
• • That warm fuzzy feeling inside knowing the intern gets fed
• • Only £1 a week!