Equinties - a road to take

Gm Equinauts

Horse racing is unrivalled. It makes grown men cry. Levels the biggest ego’s. Makes heroes from absolutely nowhere. Creates memories for life.

There aren’t many sports where women play on the same terms at elite level.

There definitely isn’t another sport where complete amateurs can mix it with the professionals on the big days if they have enough coin.

Enter DAVID MAXWELL.

Good lord we love this man. How could you not? He’s just nicest man, with a wicked sense of humour, buying the best horses and just living his best life.

Without fail, on any day he rides, there will ALWAYS be hilarious comments to read on X from people who are just so angry he’s riding.

If David Maxwell riding upsets you, you have no chance in life. Just be happy and embrace the legend. He’s a rare breed.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

A LOOK AHEAD

We tried to introduce a new year feature last week but annoyingly Sandown was off so replaced it with last Sunday’s lesser Plumpton handicap however this weekend looks a go though, so something we are going to try and do a bit more with the newsletter is take an earlier look at the weekend races. This isn’t necessarily from an ante-post betting perspective but more to give you a little more time to mull over the race, so as not to rush your risk on decisions.

This week, Saturday’s Warwick Classic Chase at 15.00 is under the microscope. The track is currently heavy (remember, Stratford was underwater last week) but no more rain is set to hit the course from now so soft ground is expected. That said, it is a one-day meeting meaning they’ll be racing on fresh ground. 

The early money is for MALINA GIRL having raced at Cheltenham twice this season, most recently in the handicap chase won by BROADWAY BOY in December. She was travelling well before falling at the third-last, and because of that, she hasn’t been touched in the handicap for the run. She should handle soft ground, in fact goes on anything, and will stay but the one thing she must do is buck the trend of geldings winning this race.

MONBEG GENIUS is the favourite, he was our pick for the old Hennessy. His form looks nice from the Ultima when behind CORACH RAMBLER and FASTORSLOW, but he was well-beaten in third in the Coral Gold Cup and remains on a mark of 147, so there’s not too much to say he’ll be in a better position to win. Plus, he needs to jump a bit better than he did at Newbury.

What does go in his favour is a lower quality of field as both DASTALRIGHTGINO and MAHLER MISSION are proper horses, with Warwick’s field most likely seeing Saturday as their ‘Cheltenham’.

With ANY SECOND NOW (rated 159) set to miss the contest, top weight will fall upon the shoulders of MONBEG GENIUS, so that will be a small negative to his chances. MALINA GIRL will be just 1lb below him.

A look towards the middle of the weights see’s MAJOR DUNDEE. A proven stayer having won the Midlands National on soft ground over 4m2f, he also has a fair level of course form from his third in November (when he wouldn’t have been race-fit) and his second in a novice hurdle. 

It’s hard to say whether he is too high in the handicap for this (racing on near all time high), but he was the third horse home in the Scottish National won by WIN MY WINGS (albeit on quick) off just 3b lower. A positive for him? The trainer definitely knows how to win it, Alan King has won this race three times – most recently in 2021 with NOTACHANCE.

Horse typically get further the more they slow down with age which is perhaps why this race has been won several times in recent years by 10 and 11’s yo’s. Let’s look at the old boys in the race.

The oldest horses in here are two 12yo’s in RAMSES DE TEILLE and ANY SECOND NOW, the latter being a household name for his brilliant efforts in the Grand National. He was 2nd in it in ‘22 and 3rd in ‘21. He’s tumbling down the weights and his age may prove him vulnerable to the young guns on the up, but there is absolutely no doubt he is the class horse in the race.

We don’t like betting in these big handicaps but it doesn’t mean we can’t hang our hats on one and whoever we side with on the day, boy will we be cheering on ANY SECOND NOW. Legend of a horse.

CHELTENHAM NEWS

Yeh we’re dropping the C bomb. No, not THAT C word. CHELTENHAM. The worlds most beautiful punting ground is back in three months and news regarding the four-day bonanza will come thick and fast over the next few months.

The first of which came yesterday as Fergal O’Brien confirmed to the Racing Post that CRAMBO, his Long Walk Hurdle hero, will probably go straight to Cheltenham in order to go to the Stayers’ Hurdle as a “nice and fresh” horse. 

As for the chasers, EDWARDSTONE’s connections aren’t willing to take on JONBON or EL FABIOLO in the Champion Chase as their star is set to be aimed at the open-looking Ryanair Chase via the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase this weekend.

King said: “We’ve been wanting to try two and a half miles with him for some time and this looks the right race to try it in. We’ve taken on Jonbon twice and I can’t see we’re going to beat him. “I think he’ll be fine at this trip and if he runs well then we’d look to go to Ascot next month [for the Ascot Chase] and then on to the Ryanair. I've given him an entry in the Queen Mother [Champion Chase] just in case he doesn’t stay, but I’m hopeful that’s an entry we won’t be taking up.” 

More: https://www.racingpost.com/news/britain/edwardstone-to-step-up-in-trip-at-kempton-on-saturday-as-alan-king-plots-route-to-ryanair-ajIPN9G7dIjZ/

A ROAD TO TAKE

This weekend, we will probably find out whether Harry Cobden will ride BURDETT ROAD in the Triumph Hurdle. 

Although the 25-year-old has built up a good relationship with the Royal Ascot winner, the stable jockey at Ditcheat will likely be required to ride any Paul Nicholls-trained horses in the Triumph if they are running. Although he doesn’t have a Triumph horse yet, Nicholls is set to unveil KABRAL DU MATHAN, a French-winning hurdler, in the opening race at Kempton on Saturday. 

If this ends up turning into a potential Triumph Horse, then Owen might have to look elsewhere for a pilot for BURDETT ROAD. However, he is ahead of the game, as he told The Sun: “We want Harry to ride Burdett Road as he has built up a good relationship with the horse. I know Harry is keen to be on him but if Paul comes calling then he may have to ride for him. We’ll cross that bridge if we need to but we have a Plan B. 

“James Bowen has been in to school and he has ridden for the Gredleys lots, too. He’s top-class and riding very well at the moment.”

BURDETT ROAD is still the market leader for the Triumph and looks likely to take in the Triumph Trial at Cheltenham on Trials Day, though the DRF is an option. 

TODAY’S BEST STATS

No stats today.

YOUNG BLOOD

15.35 DONCASTER 

It cannot be overstated how good and how deep this bumper is. If we pick the winner in this…

There are loads of runners so we’ll just highlight the best blood.

Heading the market is DIAMOND DICE for JJ. We’re pretty sure this lad was a Young Blood selection before (when gambled at Hereford). Nice make up and ran well in a Cheltenham bumper lto but, honestly, todays little bumper is arguably as strong as that race!

We’ve mentioned Alan King quite a lot in this mornings newsletter and we’re going to talk a lot about him right now for he runs £170k Maxwell purchase OFF THE JURY. Expensive point winner, related to a good bumper winner and by a sire who is proving well versed at producing bumper winners.

The brilliantly named THE HAPPY CHAPATI reps bumper king Nicky Henderson. This horse is perfectly bred for this race - out of a TURGEON mare (hard as nails) and by CHAMPS ELYSEES who produce brilliant 2milers. A lot of boxes ticked with this one, would perhaps want the ground a tiiiiiny bit quicker. Hendo in good form though.

STAVVY for flat trainer Chapple-Hyam is being backed probably because she is a flat trainer (happens to Boughey all the time). This lad lacks the stamina dam side and will look to be going well then stop in the final straight. You watch.

The others have nice enough to ped’s but won’t win today.

Verdict: Obviously we’re supporting Maxwell (and we have put a lot of emphasis on Kings horses this week so we need him to be in good form), we’ll blow the roof off if OFF THE JURY comes in. But, as we always say, this section is about blood and blood only and the pedigree pick THE HAPPY CHAPATI. 

18.30 KEMPTON

We’ve only previewed this all weather race because one big price caught the eye against the multi million £ horses at the top of the market… and he’s trained by Alan King who simply cannot get out the newsletter today.

EL CORDOBES was bought for 2million as a yearling, looks a big scopey sort who made an ok debut. Loads of improvement expected.

GHOSTLORE is another by the Champion sire Frankel, cost 260k as a yearling which is cheap for one by him. Wears hood on debut. Half brother to Gr2W Duke of Hazzard.

CONDOR PASA is one of two debutants for the Varian stable, like the other WEST HOLLYWOOD check the market but best watched today.

BURSINEL is by Fastnet Rock o/o an old mare, he’s a full brother to Rivet who was a good 2yo.

CALCULATE runs for The King, yards runners normally improve and being by Cracksman he’s not sure to suit the going.

ADVERT RULES ran rubbish on debut but showed improvement on his next start where he was 4th. 1st and 2nd look good from that race and 3rd has won since on his next start. Not out of it.

Verdict: El Cordobes looks hard to beat here but he’s skinny odds and didn’t set the world alight on debut. ADVERT RULES is a tasty price to upset the fav and beat a few of these unraced horses. Is this week for Alan King? We’re going to play a TINY (lunch money) 130/1 ew double on OFF THE JURY and ADVERT RULES.

RISK ON

We have a Leicester play if it passes an inspection. we will also play THE HAPPY CHAPATI ew.

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