Equinties - rising sea

Gm Equinauts

No time for small talk today, we have three Young Blood bumpers to preview!

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HEADLINE ROUND UP

RISING SEA 

Around this time of year, every year, stud fees of the big breeding operations are announced and yesterday saw the Aga Khan announce that both SEA THE STARS and SIYOUNI have had their stud fee increased to €200,000. 

SIYOUNI has experienced a brilliant year on the track thanks to the multiple successes of PADDINGTON, TAHIYRA, and MQSE DE SEVIGNE, all of which helped him to become the second leading sire in Europe in prize money, behind the GOAT FRANKEL of course.

HUKUM has been a standout son for STS, his victories in the Brigadier Stakes and King George VI Stakes oh so good. STS’s daughter EMILY UPJOHN up there too, with her win in the Coronation Cup at Epsom a recent highlight of the power of the SEA!

As for the Aga Khan’s new sires for 2024, VADENI, the 2022 Coral-Eclipse winner will stand for €18,000 and EVEVANN, the 119-rated four-year-old, will stand for €8,000. 

SUBJECT TO MARES

The future plans of SUBJECTIVIST were revealed yesterday as it was announced that he will stand at Alne Park Stud for £4,000 in 2024. 

The six-year-old by TEOFILO has a nice pedigree around him with SIR RON PRIESTLEY and ALBA ROAD as half-siblings as well as INDIVIDUALISM, a progressive two-year-old, making his way through the ranks.

On hearing the news, Mark Johnston said: “I always say that, when placing horses, the opposition trumps all other factors. But, very rarely, you come across a horse where the opposition isn’t a factor at all. Subjectivist was such a horse. “In 2021, I truly believed that there wasn’t a horse in the world that could beat him at two miles or more, in any ground.”

Grace Skelton, Alne Park Stud director, believes that keeping an exceptional stallion in the UK is a boost to the UK breeders and they are hoping for good support in his debut season.

GRADE 1 PLANS

COLONEL HARRY, second to NEMEAN LION in the Grade 2 Premier Novices’ Hurdle in March, will be aimed for the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase on December 9th at Sandown after his Chepstow success yesterday. 

Sporting the same colours as stablemate DATSALRIGHTGINO, he won nicely on his debut over fences with the favourite, TAHMURAS, a disappointing third leaving Nicholls fairly baffled with his underperformance. 

However, the big talking point after the race was the ride from Adam Wedge on the second, OUT OF OFFICE, as it created the usual divide on Racing X… 

Half the room are calling Adam Wedge a cheat, the other half in support of Wedge’s horsemanship.

Okay, the ride looks soft as sh*t but, as we like to do in this newsletter, lets get some perspective.

OUT OF OFFICE had a crashing fall at the first fence of his first start over fences last month (go back and watch it, actually, don’t, it’s nasty viewing), so anyone with an empathetic and rational mind would understand yesterdays race was all about getting the young horses confidence back. 

The second fact is Chepstow is an unbelievably long way. Only if you’ve ever been to the course will you truly understand the scale of the home straight. As such, when horses who are having their first run after a near fatal fall are finishing off a race after 2 miles of slog - it’s probably best to not ride them like a maniac.

Don’t get us wrong, we love highlighting Wedge’s rides sometimes - they’re either incredible or disastrous, but that’s Wedge. If you don’t like him - simply don’t back him. We continue to back him because, on his day, he’s class… and yes, his howlers still haunt us, but that’s racing.

YOUNG BLOOD

We’d tried to be a little alternative with the bumpers yesterday when, had we just backed Sam Thomas blind and gone with the best pedigree at Warwick (Skelton’s gamble), we’d have been laughing.

Regarding Sam Thomas, the way he has his ready for bumpers is very impressive but one might wonder how much improvement they’ve got to go when meeting obstacles, if at all.

Three bumpers today, so will keep it short:

15.35 NEWBURY

This one is ridiculously tough to read and they’re all good NH peds without a standout.

Hendo’s GENTLEMANS RELISH (interesting name) is getting backed to fave, he didn’t do anything lto but that race completely feel apart - the field behind Honeyball’s are either all sh*t or the winner was flattered. We’re inclined to think its the former!

PURE CARBON got an over night squeeze but has since sold off. Nice enough pedigree for jumps later down the line but there will be better bumper horses in this line up today.

Skelton’s is interesting. By a horse called PILLAR CORAL who was unraced but is related to sires COASTAL PATH and MARTALINE - they’re great sires for bumpers. Nice dam side.

HELL HOUND’s page is littered with point winners and he might be done by classier pedigree’s today but certainly one for handicaps later down the line.

Gordon’s DAVID WELL wasn’t the most expensive but certainly has a nie enough pedigree to get involved today. Point form reads well.

HARBOUR BRIDGE doesn’t have a chance.

TOMMIE GUN ran in that same race Hendo’s did - a write off really. Lovely pedigree and possibly the best for this race today but he needs to leave that first race well behind!

ANOTHER FINE MESS can’t win.

HONEY JACK is a big price. By new sire JACK HOBBS who can produce bumper winners. The dam progressed to be a nice horse and was a half to a very nice two time bumper winner including a Listed bumper. Short list.

The others can’t win.

Verdict: Out of the debutants, we quite like HONEY JACK 14/1 and he’s reportedly working well for the same connections who won a bumper last week (beating our 16/1 selection into 2nd!). Of the one’s with experience, TOMMIE GUN 14/1 has the best pedigree - but a proper leap of faith is required!

16.10 NEWBURY

This is the second division of the Newbury bumper and equally as hard to read.

HISTRIONIC has been pumped in the market, 5/2 into 5/4 now. Unless punters have seen him work, they’re backing the sales price - half a milli! Nice enough pedigree and worth fave but now too short for this race.

I’M A LUMBERJACK is another runner from the infamous bumper aforementioned for having confusing form. He ran on well but was no match for the Honeyball horse, makes him a player today and pedigree fine.

RYAN’S ROCKET hasn’t got the dam side to win this race but Fergal is a good trainer and can bring out the best in horses.

KING OF THE ROAD has been well backed. Money telling for this yard who have had a new lease of life since Ben built his new operation from the ground up. Place chances on pedigree.

Hobbs doesn’t target bumpers but he has won this race before with TIDAL FLOW. Definitely has the blood to be a contender here if wound up… too much of a risk though.

GROOVY BLUE is too big at 22/1. Expensive and well bred. Claimer onboard could help his cause, Joe rides him everyday at home.

GUARD THE MOON is by PETHERS MOON who we aren’t a fan of yet. A half to POTTERMAN who was very good for Hendo. Money says no.

MARTALITE is by MARTALINE - love this sire but dam side a little weak for this race. This horse was the bet at Lingfield last week but it was called off. This race is 10x harder today.

The other’s can’t win.

Verdict: Probably too tough to have a bet in tbh but we’ll side with GROOVY BLUE for Emma at 22/1 who could place… no doubt behind big Paul’s HISTRIONIC who is too short for us today.

16.20 LUDLOW

Don’t like the Milton fave at 2/1 but it might be too weak a race to lay him.

GORE POINT is interesting. Quite sure this is ORDER OF ST GEORGE’s first runner. We’ve heard nothing about his progeny which is quite bearish but GORE POINT is a half to two nice stayers in SCAMPI and PLAIN BLEAU. He could be anything.

Fergal’s is well bred dam side, the dam a half to loads of nice NH winners. A filly against the boys but she does get the allowance.

Nigel TD’s is interesting being out of a half to very good horse MR MOLE, but that really is the only nice one on the page of note.

The rest don’t look much cop.

Verdict: Honeyball often has them ready for bumpers but backing his without info would be gambling on an unproven sire. If Fergal’s filly is ready, then MARIA’S FLAME could prove the ew play.

TODAY’S BEST STATS

One stat, one easy winner yesterday in UNION FLAG… no typo’s there. Apologies for yesterday!

One standout stat today in:

JJ’s FRONT VIEW in the 12.15. Young AJ O’Neill is 2 from 3 for yard at this track. Are they lining up a gamble for old JP?

RISK ON

Lovely drift on the Risk On horse yesterday, albeit it did give us anxiety before the off! When looking at the race we couldn’t see it beat but luckily we knew more than the market.

The bumpers are too tough to have a play in, we’ll be watching those (but booming the selections if they win).

We quite liked HUNTER LEGEND to win but we’re falling out of love with Deutsch so sticking with two singles today, one over hurdles and one over fences:

13.25 TIGHTENOURBELTS

Jumps for fun at home (needed for a track like Ludlow) and should be the best horse in the race today. Yard bullish and telling Bellamy has gone to Ludlow instead of Newbury. 2/1.

14.00 FLORENCETHEMACHINE

Hopefully appropriately named. She’ll have benefitted for the run. Bowen might not be too hard on Hendo’s horse. 2/1.

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