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Equinties - Rhodes to recovery
BGP Capital
February 10, 2026
Gm, Equinauts
The weather is looking very bearish this week as rain forecasts have signalled flooding warnings across the country, inevitably putting NH meetings in doubt.
We’re not going to be forcing bets on horses should the (betting) conditions not be right, we like to tick as many boxes as possible so we ask for your patience this week as there might just well be long waits between meetings we have risk on.
Let’s dive in.
HEADLINE ROUNDUP
FIGHTING TALK
Ah, the jumps season. When horses are treated like rock stars, trainers like chess grandmasters, and owners like overly optimistic lottery winners. Enter KOPEK DES BORDES, the six-year-old monster who's got the Mullins fan boys (aren’t we all?) buzzing louder than a beehive at a honey convention. As we all know, he’s fresh off a minor winter setback (a chip removal from his knee back in December 2025, followed by an annoying infection that side-lined him for the Dublin Racing Festival), KDB is back in the headlines... for a racecourse gallop!
And yes, he’s still trained by Mullins and not Nicky Henderson lmao.
Paul Townend set KDB alight around Punchestown after racing last Wednesday and turned a schooling session into a good old fashioned piece of hard graft. Teamed up against Danny Mullins on IMPAIRE ET PASSE, KDB didn't just lay upsides—he left his stablemate chewing the mud he slung out behind him.
Danny reportedly couldn't catch him, which is saying something considering his mount is a Grade 1 winner. It's like challenging Usain Bolt to a sprint and watching him get lapped by a cheetah on roller skates.
Owner Charlie McCarthy hasn’t done anything to hide his excitement. "They tell me he's absolutely squealing and couldn't be in better form," he said in a recent interview.
"Danny said he couldn't keep up with Kopek on Impaire Et Passe, and you'd have to be excited when you hear stuff like that."
Squealing? In horse terms, that's KDB feeling himself. He’s clearly bouncing and spitting fire.
Of course, the big prize on the horizon is the Arkle Novice Chase at Cheltenham versus LULAMBA who did nothing but impress at Newbury. Mullins’ lad will be heading there with just one chase start under his belt—a rarity that has some punters worried but as we’ve said before, Mullins is a wizard.
So who do you like at the moment? LULAMBA or KDB? Because McCarthy's camp seem all in stating they don’t think LULAMBA will be able to live with their pride and joy.
Ante-post markets have sold KDB off since his setbacks, but after this Punchestown work, expect the smart money to be taking advantage, especially on the completion of his last bit of work back at Punchestown later this month.
STOTT TO RETURN
When Mike Tyson once famously said ‘I broke my back…spinal’, the boxing world laughed because, well, there was absolutely no way it was broken and every one knows Iron Mike is a little bit coo-coo.
But when a jockey says it, people listen.
Kevin Stott has proven once again why jockeys are built differently (mentally). In December last year, he took a heavy fall at Wolverhampton but still rode a double that day. The next morning, despite not knowing the full extent of what the fall had done, he headed to Newcastle and steered the 33/1 outsider RETURN TO DUBAI to victory.
It turns out he actually did have a broken back. Scans later confirmed a break in his T4 but medical staff initially hesitated to image him because he wasn’t in “enough pain” - classic jockey grit!
Now, after a couple of months of rehabilitation supported by the Injured Jockeys Fund, Stott is now on the cusp of a return and is targeting racing again “the week after next,” likely starting with a restricted-riders’ races before stepping back up to full competition. The Group 1 winner who once conquered Ascot on KING OF STEEL is ready to resume where he left off—hopefully with fewer trips to A&E and plenty more winners.
THE RHODES TO RECOVERY
Andrew Rhodes is leaving the Gambling Commission!
During Andrew Rhodes' tenure as CEO (2021-2026), major regulatory changes, including the phased introduction of financial risk checks starting in 2023 (affordability) and fully implemented by 2025, have been widely cited by…well, nearly every one as being the major reason horse racing is in serious decline.
His measures have led to reduced betting turnover on the sport, with online betting GGY (gross gambling yield) on horse racing falling from £10.01 billion in 2021-22 to £7.88 billion in 2024-25—a real-terms "£3 billion black hole" over two years, according to the BHA.
Average turnover per race declined by 19% from 2021-22 to 2024-25, with an 8% drop in the latest year alone, exacerbating funding pressures through lower levy contributions (despite a record £108.9 million levy yield in 2024-25, driven by bookmaker gross profits rather than volume). The BHA and Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) attribute these declines directly to affordability checks, which have deterred recreational and high-stakes punters, pushing up to 30% of punters towards the black-market.
Now, ya’ll know how we feel about the bookmaker giants - we’d happily see their demise but only on the basis business moved to the more racing-centric model like the Aussies have. Given we haven’t got that right now, the shift away from legal to black market bookies risks long-term damage to horse racing’s finances, with forecasts of £250 million in losses over five years, reduced prize money, and threats to employment in an industry supporting around 80,000 jobs.
With Rhodes gone, hopefully we see someone more commercial come in to make gambling great again. We can’t shy away from the fact that horse racing is not just about the love of the horses, it’s also about betting.
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