Equinties - revved up at the sales

Author

BGP Capital
May 31, 2023

Equinties

Sponsored by UK Meds.

Gm Equinauts 

Brighton, Leicester, Lingfield, Nottingham and Redcar all had flat meetings yesterday and today there is only two bad flat cards at Beverley and Hamilton...AND THREE JUMPS MEETINGS.

We know better than most the importance of the 'going' for horses with specific genetics - there are many summer ground horses who would not be able to get their knees out the mud in the depths of winter, fine. But the ground is rock solid today and does racing really need 3 jumps meetings in May?

The jumps needs a break, a month off minimum. Not least to get the racing public buzzing for the return of it again but I'm sure the jockeys and yard staff wouldn't mine a bit of an extended holiday. 

MAKE IT MAKE SENSE.

Remember to use the TOTE Fantasy to cage the chimp. Build your stable and add it to our League using code QHZ36G.

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Now, let’s dive in. 

Headline roundup

 From Newmarket to Australia (a pinhook success)

To buy a commodity, with the expectation of selling it later for a profit, that's a pinhook. The term goes back hundreds of years to the Tabaco trade during the British Empire days.

In the thoroughbred industry, the most well known pinhooking strategy is foal to yearling but you can also operate in different markets; foal to Breeze up (2yo), yearling to Breeze up, yearling to horse in training or race filly to broodmare - the list goes on.

Essentially it is ‘flipping’ the horse for (preferably) a profit. Taking one product and putting it into a different market is not a new concept and horses are transported all around the world every day, so why not take advantage of an investment opportunity? 

The latter strategy was put in focus recently when Hannah Wall and David Redvers brought PROMISE OF SUCCESS for 27,000gns at Tattersalls and sold her for $1.35 million in Australia. PROMISE OF SUCCESS was a 4yo when sold to Hannah Wall and she hadn’t even won a maiden. Owned previously by Godolphin she was cast off to a syndicate (very miuch like a horse you'll all recognize - OCEAN WIND). The syndicate lost patience so she was sent to the sales. Interestingly her whole family got better with age, she was brought with some value in mind. She is by DANSILI who is by DANEHILL - DANEHILL is a top broodmare sire and DANSILI has begun to follow suit, for example EEXPERT EYE, SNOW SKY and MAGIC WAND amongst many others. DANEHILL is a powerhouse in Australia so it makes sense to look at moving her into those markets.

PROMISE OF SUCCESS’ own broodmare sire is STREET CRY, who was responsible for the Queen Of Australian turf, WINX. Her family background went back to French Derby winner ANABAA BLUE, as well as other Gr1 winners. The pedigree had substance. PROMISE OF SUCCESS flew to Australia and duly won her maiden. She then went on to win the Group 2 Emancipation and the $2million The Invitation at Randwick. She improved with age like her family had done previously. Sold at the Magic Millions National Broodmare Sale in May for $1.35 million to Yulong. She has been entered in the Gr1 Tattersalls Tiara at Eagle Farm on June 24th by her new owners. Now 7 years old it just shows what can be done when thinking outside the box.

BGP Capital's business model is orientated around this business model and we will be talking more about it on twitter - watch the Intern's account closer to Royal Ascot for more pinhooking success stories.

Shad(may as)well supplement 

After the demolition job last week (painful memories), Shadwell have their eyes set on Royal Ascot for Derby King slayer, HUKUM, as they might supplement him for the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes. 

ANMAAT, their Group 1 winner in France on the weekend, was their Royal meeting hope for the 1m2f contest, however, connections are looking at the Coral-Eclipse for their five-year-old AWTAAD colt, leaving HUKUM in line to be supplemented for the race. 

Racing manager to Shadwell, Angus Gold, said: “If it poured with rain and the ground went easy before Ascot we would probably discuss supplementing for the Prince of Wales's, but my guess is we'd still be looking at the Hardwicke at this stage. Touch wood, he seems to have come out of Sandown fine." 

Of the 17 that were confirmed at yesterday’s forfeit stage, ADAYAR, DESERT CROWN, BAY BRIDGE, LUXEMBOURG, and EMILY UPJOHN are still in that race – what a cracker it could be! 

RIP Rite Of Passage 

Yesterday was a day for remembering the legends of the game.  On the same day of the one-year anniversary of Lester Pigott’s death, the game lost another legend as RITE OF PASSAGE, the 2010 Ascot Gold Cup winner, sadly passed away. 

It’s rare in the current climate of racing to see a dual-purpose horse compete at the top level across both the jumps and Flat code, however, Dermot Weld’s GIANT’S CAUSEWAY gelding was able to place at the Cheltenham Festival twice before winning the Gold Cup and Long Distance Cup at Ascot on the Flat. An unbelievable achievement and one people would no doubt like more horses to try emulate - imagine CONSTITUTION HILL going on the flat!

He was a proper horse and it’s sad to see him pass away at the age of 19. RIP, Rite Of Passage. 

French Group 1 action 

We all have our eyes set on Epsom, but there is still Group 1 action to pay attention to over in France on Sunday as 12 horses were confirmed for the Prix du Jockey Club. 

French 2000 Guineas winner MARHABA YA SANAFI is one of those 12 runners leading the line to continue the rich vein of form for owner Jaber Abdullah. 

The supplemented horse in the race is FEED THE FLAME, a horse who only made his debut six weeks ago and trainer Pascal Bary hopes his KINGMAN colt can continue to progress for Sunday’s Classic. 

“I thought he would win but I didn't think he would win that easily. We then ran him again quickly because I felt if he had any chance of running in this, he would need time between a second run and a Classic. When he won easily again we then made the decision the supplement him.” 

NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

Nothing of note today.

Today's best stats

Highlighting trainer targets, trends and horses for courses. 

14.40 LASTINGHAM for O'Meara is one to watch the market for. He ran on soft lto but needs quick and gets it today. O'Meara is 3 from 4 in these types of claiming races at track. He has another runner but the drift says no. 10's - watch the market.

14.50 INVINCIBLE TIGER - Tate is 4 from 4 at this track and maintains a 71% sr when travelling this far with a runner. A filly pp against a well fancied colt for Scott, who is travelling just as a far, she might be playing for places. 9/2.

16.20 ARRANMORE goes for Sayer who is not only runs a 20% sr at track but is very much in the money here so clearly targets the track when she has them ready. 9/4.

20.10 JUNIOR MASSINI runs for Sheila Lewis. Trainer loves Warwick, maintaining a 60% sr in handicap chases here. This lad is out of the handicap (he's a slow horse) but its a shocking race and he'll LOVE the ground. Cobden booked to do the business. Even money.

These stats should be used as an aid to help make better betting decisions and do not constitute financial advice. Use to help build you chimp acca's. 

Risk on

It was nice to see previous big gamble PROPHETS DREAM follow up again yesterday both for our returning stats section and Risk On. He's a nice honest horse and should go in again on quick ground over further.

We're suggesting following the stats horse for Sayer, ARRANMORE 16.20. Another one we'll play is at a much bigger price:

18.20 FOXWOOD

You might recognize his name - he was the bumper pick on debut when he bagged the only place behind a 1/2 shot. He was given a quiet ride last time in tough conditions and is definitely a good ground horse which he gets today. Trainer, Bewley, targets Cartmel and it would be no surprise to see this lad pop up if he is off today as, bar the fave, the race is full of moderate horses who couldn't cut it on the flat. Half bet ew at 20/1.

Staking and banking

You need to manage risk by limiting bet size to a fixed % of your bank. The reality is, if you have an edge that'll prove profitable over say, 100 trades, but there will be times when you have a string of losses - that could be 10 losing bets in a row, it happens. 

To avoid blowing the account, managing risk to a fixed, low percentage is the only way to stay in the game.

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever. 

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

Create your stable and use code QHZ36G to join the BGP league here: 

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