Equinties - relatively worried

Gm Equinauts

Our home ground, Newbury, hosts the much anticipated Super Sprint this Saturday and all eyes are firmly fixed on two things - that local favourite and of course, the weather forecast.

The weather over Berkshire is changeable. At the start of the morning the dark and ominous clouds rapidly dispersing to reveal the bright blue skies allowing those ante-post slip holders a bit of respite from worrying their bets might be drowned out.

But not for long. The rain is absolutely biblical over Newbury now…

All change!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

RELATIVELY WORRIED

Remember Royal Ascot? It feels like Flat racing’s biggest meeting of the year was just a couple of weeks ago, and yet, it’s exactly a month since GSTAAD landed the Coventry Stakes.

Just to remind you of how the Coventry Stakes played out, we’ll give you a quick summary.

ALBERT EINSTEIN was Ballydoyle’s number one, but he was then ruled out, so GSTAAD was the super sub for Aidan O’Brien, and he duly obliged at 7/2 in stylish fashion (boom, we backed him).

In the 90 seconds after GSTAAD won the Coventry, there was plenty of excitement about what this horse could do going forward, and rightly so. After all, he had just won the Coventry Stakes by three winding lengths, and this race can give clues towards the Guineas next season.

However, as soon as O’Brien caught up with horse racing’s media, that all changed.

The main reason behind this change was his words about ALBERT EINSTEIN, even though he never raced at Royal Ascot! At the end of the day’s play, he was the one who shortened considerably for the 2000 Guineas next year, while GSTAAD, a horse who was in good health and had just won the Coventry Stakes, remained a bigger price!

To further add fuel to the fire, he made the case that ALBERT EINSTEIN was his best juvenile over both GSTAAD and CHARLES DARWIN. The Ballydoyle eggs were definitely in one basket.

Fast-forward one month, and there is a bit of trouble for all you ALBERT EINSTEIN fans, as he is still on the sidelines and “he’s not near to running yet”.
O’Brien continued: “He’s not back cantering yet. He’s just been on a break. We’re still hoping he’ll be back for something in the autumn, but it will depend on how he is really.

“Gstaad is a big horse who travels well and with lots of speed. We always thought this was a top-tier horse alongside Albert, but your man was just so fast it was different.”

This is pretty bad news. The quotes surrounding ALBERT EINSTEIN and the fact that “he’s not near to running yet” don’t make him seem like a future 2000 Guineas winner.

He could bounce back, of course, and O’Brien is good at giving horses time. Just look at KYPRIOS and his injury setback in both 2021 and 2023.

But still, for this to be happening to a twice-raced juvenile is not promising. Let’s say he comes back, what’s stopping him from being a fragile horse for the rest of his career, who could have further setbacks? Not much.

We’d be quite cautious about him going forward.

THE O’BRIENS

Speaking of Aidan O’Brien, his family really does have a good handle on things in the Flat racing game, right?

He is obviously the king, both Joseph and Donnacha are up-and-coming in the trainer ranks, and even his daughter, Ana O’Brien, has got her life as an owner off to a good start thanks to A BOY NAMED SUSIE.

The STARSPANGLEDBANNER colt is out of SOHO SUSIE, a half-sister to MEHMAS, so he certainly has a nice page, and he bolted up at Killarney yesterday on his racecourse debut.

Of course, there are things to consider before labelling this colt as a potential future world beater. Firstly, he started his career in a pretty week Killarney maiden that saw an AWTAAD colt, DIAL ME IN, go off as the odds-on favourite after a narrow success at Leopardstown last month.

Second of all, although MEHMAS is on his dam’s side, SOHO SUSIE has only produced three winners from six runners, and one of those runners even went on to lose five times over obstacles.

But still, looking away from these facts, there is a lot to be pleased about visually. For a debutante, the way he was able to travel so smoothly and then kick away under Gavin Ryan is rather notable, and the Group 1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes entry that he happens to have can’t be a coincidence.

Donnacha O’Brien, a trainer who has had his fair share of Group 1 successes with PORTA FORTUNA, PROUD AND REGAL, and SHALE, clearly likes him, so when he talks about this horse being a potential Group 1 horse, it is notable.

He said: "We thought he was good as he did a really, really good piece of work up the Curragh a few weeks ago.

“We thought that if we had a good colt, it could be him. We gave him a National Stakes entry the other day – he has a bit to go to live up to that – but it’s nice to see that he has started well.

“This auction race looked a tough ask as he was giving away weight to winners, and it is a tough track first-time-out but he is obviously just smart."

"For an auction race at Killarney, it has thrown up Iridessa, Luxembourg, Lambourn and a few Group 2 winners as well so it's a nice start for him.

"They hacked and then sprinted but I think he could be a proper one. He has plenty of gears for a big horse.”

At a very basic level, he looks smart. There’s plenty of chat already about what silks he could be rocking on his next start, and that would be a fair comment to make. The Lads could swoop in, but so could Amo Racing and Wathnan Racing.

A mildly exciting juvenile like this is all they want, so Ana O’Brien could be getting a nice payday soon.

BIG STEP UP

It almost feels like all these articles are connected in some way.

The first was about the O’Brien’s, which then led into the second. The second was about Group 1 ambitions, with Wathnan Racing getting a small plug, both of which lead into this third section of the newsletter.

That’s because the blue, gold, and red silks of Wathnan are set to deploy a fierce team at Glorious Goodwood, and one of their main hopes looks to be FRENCH MASTER in the Group 1 Goodwood Cup.

Whichever way you dress this up, this is a big step up in class for the FRANKEL colt, but he certainly has a nice chance of going well.

He’s four, so it’s not exactly like he’s this inexperienced three-year-old against his elders, and he ran to an RPR of 112 when winning the Copper Horse Stakes at Royal Ascot by two-and-a-half lengths.

He won that Copper Horse with a notable run down the outside, and he wasn’t stopping at the line. It was a proper performance, and he won at Goodwood in May, so he clearly likes the track.

The Group 1 Goodwood Cup will be a tough task, but he’s actually the second favourite for the race, and it isn’t a vintage contest.

Wathnan racing adviser Richard Brown said: "French Master was pretty impressive last time. To come from where he did – he had to challenge very wide – was very impressive and he was strong at the line after a very good turn of foot. We're going into top-level company and although it’s a big jump, we’ll find out if he’s good enough and ready for it.

"James [Doyle] sat on him the other day – he had a small breeze on him – and felt he was in good shape. He had quite a hard race at Ascot and John and Thady have said it’s taken him a bit of time to come back bouncing, so we gave him more time than he needed."

At this stage, we would have to say that ILLINOIS at the top of the market looks like a fairly tough opponent. He gave TRAWLERMAN a small bit of a race in the Gold Cup before he got tired, so coming back in trip should be beneficial.

However, FRENCH MASTER is a fine alternative, even if his price is slightly gone. There’s not much else of appeal at a big price, in fairness.
Elsewhere, both CRIMSON ADVOCATE and FALLEN ANGEL could go to the Group 1 Nassau Stakes, and UNDERWRITER could go to the Group 2 Richmond Stakes.

It looks like Goodwood could be a fairly big week Wathnan.

STATS OF THE DAY

An easy winner for this stats section yesterday:

Unfortunately there are no standout stats today.

RISK ON

One bet, one winner yesterday, awarded in the stewards room no less. What luck!

Today we think ROGUE SUPREMACY in the 13.50 is leverage for a bet of your choice and the two singles we like are:

16.05 MAGICAL IDEA

The last exposed of the field and he pedigree is absolutely dynamite. We’re banking on the hope that Shaggas has been taking his time with this girl and the extra distance will finally see her at her best. 2/1 a speccy bet on pedigree.

16.20 HIBERNATE

We can’t believe we’re doing this as Dunlop is strictly on the ‘useless, do not bet’ trainers list but he seems to be in incredible form at the moment with his horses running all above their marks. They might be all accidentally well handicapped (certainly not by design). Take Dunlop out of the picture, we like the horse. He’s nicely bred and on pedigree, should have more to offer as all of his siblings are rated a lot higher, including his full brother who was rated 97 at his peak and over this same trip. The last time out form put him clear on ratings and we think the drift is worth taking, as punters back Oisin Murphys mount into fave. 11/4 a bet.