Equinties - the rain is coming

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Gm Equinauts

The rain is coming.

Nothing will have a bigger influence over the Festival results than the weather, this simply cannot be overstated and Racing Twitter is in trouble.

Year on year, during the run up to Cheltenham, Racing Twitter is a zoo of wannabe punters and optimistic guessers posting idea's on ante-posts, predicting where horses will go and trying to land the vAluE / lottery acca.

The over-buzz in run up to the main stage is exciting, I more than anyone understand this but it's getting out of control and I feel it envelopes people into a betting frenzy where most will get hurt.

I get the idea of the lucky dip, early big-priced acca's trying to turn a measly fiver into the euro millions jackpot but all I'm worried all I'm seeing is chimp's out of control dumping paychecks after paychecks into slips without any moments hesitation...because it's Cheltenham AND EVERY ONE IS DOING IT.

I'm not the only one who feels this way about the craze.

Rant over, let's dive tf in.

Headline roundup

Cheltenham updates

The biggest show on turf is five days away and the rollercoaster of who is running where is continuing.

Yesterday saw the six-day scratchings for the first day of the Cheltenham Festival - no real surprises, but Willie Mullins has kept both GAELIC WARRIOR and IMPAIRE ET PASSÉ in the Supreme. I know what comments Willie has made about the Ballymore for the former, but it wouldn’t be a million to one to see THE WARRIOR turn up in the curtain raiser of the Festival.

However, one horse who won’t be on show at Cheltenham is NIGHT AND DAY for Willie Mullins as owner Simon Munir confirmed that she had been ruled out of the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle through a small setback.

The six-year-old was a general 7/1 shot for the penultimate race on the Thursday of the Festival having bolted up lto, but she will now be absent, decreasing Mullins’ hand in the race.

Weather watch

Good ground, what is that?

Don’t be counting your chickens if you were thinking that next week will be 100% good ground as Gloucestershire was treated to a shower of rain or snow for the majority of the day yesterday and it looks like today's menu is much of the same.

Our on-the-ground reporter tells us that there was no real substance to the rain, but it was constant and could potentially take the sting out of the ground at Prestbury Park but if it gets heavier...they'll be swimming.

It’s now Good to Soft on the old course and Good to Soft, Good in places on the New Course at Cheltenham.

More rain is set to fall over the next few day.

McCain is McFuming

The new whip rules continue to circulate around horse racing, catching out some of the best jockeys in our sport.

Brian Hughes received a four-day ban for raising his arm above head height for his ride on MINELLA PLUS, a ride he only used the whip once on.

As expected his boss, Donald McCain, was fuming about it.

This isn’t a good look. Hughes has been in breach of these rules, but if a ride that only issues the ship once is being banned for four days, then you have to be seriously worried about our sport?

it's good to see big Don pipe up but where tf is everyone else. Motormouth Matt Chapman is a big voice against the BHA but people aren't rallying behind him and the silence is deafening. WHAT IS EVERYONE DOING!?

Worrying times ahead it seems and I don't get it.

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Wincanton bumper

Tricky and not very inspiring. Keen to take on the shortie fave for Nicholls which is brave given he targets these course bumpers.

I initially liked Pauling's PIC ROC for this as his bumper lto has produced loads of winners and I liked the way he finished...but he's drifted to an ew price which is bearish and I've heard nothing major is expected from him today as he is still a bit green. Hmm.

Chris Gordon's has been slammed in the market, he's 2 from 6 in bumpers here so I can see why it's been backed.

Can see something else popping up but theyre all generally weak in the market.

I normally back my bumper selections but might leave it today, I'll decide later but the pick is Pauling's PIC ROC at 4's.

Todays best stats

No qualifiers today.

Risk on

17.45 NIGWA

Small play here on a well-bred filly who is capable of winning this class 4. 5th lto in a higher grade and should still be unexposed with improvement to come back to 10f. Took 5's ew but a delayed newsletter will only offer a small play in the nose at 10/3.

If anything else comes through, it will be posted on twitter.