Equinties - racing to parliament

Gm Equinauts

Representatives of the racing industry are fighting against the threat of a betting tax in racing and as such, todays racing has been cancelled.

This tax really cannot happen. The industry has been harmed enough by the influence of betting regulations, and this tax might be the final nail in the coffin.

UK racing is on life support right now, which is wild given it is absolutely blowing up in other countries.

The BHA need to come up with the problem solving and fast.

As for us, we’re really trying to think of ideas which will solve the problem of punters ‘getting on’. Stay tuned.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

PAUL NICHOLLS SHAKEDOWN

So, to begin yesterday’s newsletter, we started talking about Paul Nicholls and the impending jumps season. We are still in full flat mode right now, but when the news is there, it’s worth talking about, especially when we think that the 14-time trainer could quietly have a good season on the back of a pretty bad 2024-25 campaign.

Why? Well, because last season was so bad, he’ll have a whole host of 110-125-rated hurdles/novice chasers who should be 10-15lbs+ better off. He thinks the yard had a bit of ringworm last year that never went away, but whatever caused the below-par season, there will be plenty of winners from Ditcheat this season in novice handicap hurdles, handicap hurdles, and novice handicap chases.

But what about his superstars? Last year, he had three Grade 1 winners and a Cheltenham Festival success. By his standards, that is still a bit below average, but it was looking awful before February, so he did pull it out of the fire in the end.
So, with PIC D’ORHY, CALDWELL POTTER, KALIF DU BERLAIS, REGENT’S STROLL, and a few novice hurdlers to plot this season, here’s what we make of his team.
Let’s start with KALIF DU BERLAIS, as he has never hidden his love for this horse.

He once thought he could be a Gold Cup horse, which is a bit wild, but PFN certainly thinks the Champion Chase is within his reach this year, and his chance in something like the Queen Mother all depends on what opposition could turn up.

MARINE NATIONALE will be there (barring injury), JONBON could be there (if Nicky Henderson keeps him at two miles, which is no given), L’EAU DU SUD could improve to be a contender, and MAJBOROUGH might be a player, assuming he learns to mature over his fences and Willie Mullins doesn’t plan him towards something like the Ryanair. L’EAU DU SUD doesn’t worry us too much, but the other three could be CC horses.

That being said, so is KALIF DU BERLAIS, so he has to be a potential Champion Chaser.
With the way he galloped and made all at Aintree, he wouldn’t be a million to one to head down the Ryanair route this season, but if he did this season, one would assume that connections think he’s not good enough for the Champion Chase.

CALDWELL POTTER is next under the microscope, and Paul Nicholls thinks he could be a Gold Cup horse in time. Woof.

He’s not thinking of this season necessarily, but the 2027 Cheltenham Gold Cup is in the very, very, very long-term future. Remember IMPERIAL COMMANDER? We could be about to see another one of him. As an eight-year-old, he won the Ryanair Chase, and one year later, he came back to win the Gold Cup, beating some ageing (but very classy) horses in KAUTO STAR and DENMAN.

By 2027, GALOPIN DES CHAMPS would be 11, INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN would be nine (which is still fine), MONTY’S STAR would be nine, and FACE TO FILE would be 10. CALDWELL POTTER could well come along steadily over the next two years and be a Gold Cup horse. After all, Gordon Elliott thought that MIGHTY POTTER, his full brother, was a Gold Cup horse in the making before his sad demise.

There’s a super long way to go, obviously, but he is one from one over 3m1f, and they have sorted his feet out. If he went down the Ryanair route, one would imagine CALDWELL POTTER will stay at two miles.

As for PIC D’ORHY, he is already established in the yard, so we all know what his season will look like. It will be the 1965 Chase before the Grade 1 Ascot Chase in February. However, he could have a little pit stop at Kempton along the way for the King George. He is now 10, so age isn’t on his side, however, we said he’d be a King George horse last season, and it seems like we were not a million miles away. He loves going right-handed on a flat track, and that is what the King George is. His three RPRs of 168, one of which was at Kempton in January 2023, show his ability in the right conditions.

If GAELIC WARRIOR or FACT TO FILE showed up at Kempton, they would be tough to beat, but he’d clearly have his chance.

Finally, REGENT’S STROLL will be the big novice chasing hope of this season. We imagine he will go along the route of beginners chase, John Francome Novices’ Chase, and then the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase. Nicholls is still super bullish on him, and Olly Murphy thinks quite a lot of FINGLE BRIDGE, who beat him at Exeter last season. All is not lost with him, and he very nearly finished last season with a Grade 1 success.

So, look, last year wasn’t Nicholls’ finest season. If we’re honest, it was probably one of his worst. But, a bit like Manchester United, it can only improve, right? Let’s just hope no Andre Onana is lurking around Ditcheat this season.

WINDY WHIRLY

When talking about Aidan O’Brien’s potential Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, we speculated whether LOS ANGELES, MINNIE HAUK, and WHIRL would all run in the Arc. Prior to last week, it did look like all three could run, but both LOS ANGELES and WHIRL lost in France on the weekend, and now one of them looks likely to swerve the Arc.

Who could it be? The answer is WHIRL, as O’Brien has floated the idea of running her in the Prix de l’Opera instead.

He said: "We think Whirl will leave that run in France well behind her. It was a non-event for her on the day and she's far better than that. She's come out of the race very well and that's the main thing.

"The Arc is still possible for her and she is being trained for Arc weekend. They all could run in the Arc together still, but she could run in the Prix de l'Opera instead. That's a possible for her, as well. We'll have to see how she is closer to the time before deciding which one of those two races she goes for."

We thought this might be the case (we said this in our September 2nd edition), but we thought something like Hong Kong or the Breeders’ Cup could be for her.

Nevertheless, it’s a pretty smart move from O’Brien, but it does detract from the Arc.
From Coolmore’s POV, WHIRL and MINNUE HAUK are good fillies, and they could barely be separated in the Oaks. Why not run them in separate races and potentially win both?

From our POV, in a year that is probably lacking a standout Arc contender/hot favourite, the presence of both fillies would have added a great deal of intrigue to proceedings and the betting market. Oh well.

Before we move on, O’Brien shared his views on LOS ANGELES, and, as he has been all year, he is still uber-bullish on him for the Arc.

He said: “We were very, very happy with Los Angeles. That was only a stepping stone for the Arc and we knew he'd come forward again from it, so we were very happy with the way he ran."

Honestly, you have to look at that 40/1 for LOS ANGELES and be a little bit intrigued. He was third in the race last year, and his BLUESTOCKING, ECONOMICS, ANMAAT, WHITE BIRCH, and AUGUSTE RODIN form is still very relevant in this context.

JOCKEY PLACINGS

What do you think is the reason behind ROSALLION being beaten so many times this season? Luck? Yes. Not improving from his three-year-old season? Maybe. Lack of a confident ride? Most probably.

We don’t want to be too harsh to Sean Levey here, but he has just lacked that bit of magic when riding ROSALLION this season. In the Sussex, he should have been asked to move earlier. In the City Of York, he was given so much to do. And in the Moulin, the same occurred.

Ironically, the pilot is on course for his best-ever year in the saddle (he needs five more wins this year to do this), but when he has been handed the reins in Group 1s, he has slightly missed the mark. Is this relevant? Well, ahead of the St Leger Festival, it is, as he is set to have first pick of Aidan O’Brien's St Leger contenders.

So, he will most likely be on SCANDINAVIA, and Tom Marquand and Mickael Barzalona will be split across LAMBOURN and STAY TRUE. Where’s Christophe Soumillon on Saturday? Well, Ireland is the answer, as he will ride DELACOIX in the Irish Champion Stakes.

If you are a SCANDINAVIA punter in the Leger this year, would Levey inspire confidence? He is obviously a very accomplished rider, but would you rather have Tom Marquand in the plate? In our minds, yes, we would rather have Aussie Tom. Sorry, Sean.

He rides in more Group 1s, and he rides more top-quality horses in very tactical affairs. Both Levey and Marquand know as much about O’Brien’s Leger horses as one another, so that isn’t a factor when it comes to handing out the first draft pick, and in our eyes, Marquand would be a better choice.

The lack of Ryan Moore, Wayne Lordan, and Christophe Soumillon at Donny on Saturday really adds to the mystery on the Leger, and we love it.

RISK ON

A lovely day yesterday as we hit and nailed a 7/1 shot in Cox’s best 2yo:

There is no racing today because the BHA thought removing some dross Wednesday racing from the fixture list would make an impact in Parliament, so risk on today. We do hope the fixture cancellation does make some sort of impact because the proposed tax will ruin the sport. Cheers, Labour.

We tried to be clever with the timings of dec’s this morning, thinking there’d be a price crash on her, as were pretty confident SPICY MARGS was running in the Flying Childers but she wasn’t even declared. Bet and lost in 10 mins without a run - you can only laugh.

Bar OCEAN WIND not eligible to run in the Ces (which every one was refunded for, a long time ago now), this is the first ante-post we’ve never had a run for our money!

God knows why she wasn’t declared because she did a beastly bit of work Saturday and everything pointed to a big run in the Donny slop. Apologies if you followed that on our X account, we’ll try and find out what happened.

At least we know VENETIAN SUN is going. She is one to lever RF later this month.

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