Equinties - Punchestown day 2

Gm Equinauts

If we’re all really honest with ourselves, Punchestown is a big non-event. Unless you’re on a redemption mission like Hendo is with CONSTITUTION HILL, the only events trainers care about in the season is Cheltenham and Aintree. When all the big guns have had a long season, the Festival as a betting proposition is weak but doesn’t stop racegoers flocking there to enjoy beers in the sun.

We typically have zero interest in this meeting but this one feels quite different and it’s all down to one man, the RacingBlogger.

When the big prices beat the big names on track, it’s quite easy to assume punters and racing fans alike quickly disengage (financially and) emotionally with the sport and tune out. Competition in racing is healthy for the sport but no one likes to see the champs beaten and more, absolutely no one likes to see the bookies win in a whitewash.

Race by race, the double digit priced winners were racking up nicely yesterday, in favour of the bookies who could almost be heard laughing all the way to the bank.

But people didn’t tune out. Oh no, quite the opposite - they all tuned in, tuned in to watch the Bloggers content.

When the big boys get beat, his reaction videos personify the feeling shared by vast majority of punters hoping to land a Festival ‘banker’ acca. It’s content which both keeps fans engaged and draws new people in, with the added bonus of providing a hard lesson in the dangers of life as a punter.

Punting is NOT easy and viewers should NOT replicate the Bloggers stakes. How he funds the bets, of course we aren't privy to that detail, but we do know to be staking an average of 1k on a horse at a time requires a betting bank of about 50k in order to stay liquid during a losing run. If you haven’t got 50k to spunk in a season, don’t try and be a hero.

Contrary to the evident popular belief by most wannabe punters on X, losing runs do happen and can sadly be a normal part of the process. Hell, most pro’s bust 3-4 times in their betting life. We see people on X get so angry when they’ve back a losing horse they’ve followed someone in on. They simply can’t handle a loser, a sure sign of over betting or an incredibly weak mindset which, in that the case, betting isn’t for them.

We might go a week or two without backing a winner, but will still study each race and punt our selections with the same clarity of mind and steely determination

Recreational, fun betting is fine but real punting to fund certain lifestyles really, really isn’t for everyone but most won’t admit it.

Anyway, back to the Blogger. Keep up the content, Bloggsy - it’s keeping us all very entertained.

Marketing brilliance.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

PUNCHESTOWN DAY 1 REVIEW

Well, Punchestown Day 1 was full of surprises. Punters were repeatedly kicked in the crown jewels, and we imagine it was tough to find the winners if you were playing.

We didn’t play anything, but we’ll be honest, were quite annoyed to have missed ASCENDING LARK win for Harry Derham who loves an Irish runner:

But what did we make of the rest of the action?

Firstly, the Supreme form is now highly questionable regarding KOPEK DES BORDES. The Supreme has now produced two subsequent Grade 1 winners, which on paper sounds great, but all they have done since Cheltenham is beat fellow Supreme runners. That doesn’t scream like the Supreme was a great race this year.

So, to all the fanboys that think KOPEK DES BORDES is this legend in the making who had an off day yesterday, you may want to play with a small degree of caution when ploughing into him for the Arkle or similar next season.

Yes, that wasn’t his true performance, but his jumping still needs work.

Although the Supreme has left us scratching our heads, we do think SALVATOR MUNDI will be a nice horse next season. His jumping is getting better by the race, and we’d love to see what he could do over fences next season. However, it seems Mr Mullins has other ideas.

BALLYBURN hates fences, as does EL FABIOLO (who surely has to return to hurdles after some a break and serious schooling), but BALLYBURN really does hate fences. More, his engine isn’t all there either. Paul Townend wasn’t comfortable during the Champion Novice Chase yesterday, whether that was on the flat or over the obstacles. He will probably take on hurdles next season, but we’re in no hurry to back him.

MARINE NATIONALE winning was pretty cool - not many horses do the Cheltenham to Punchestown double, but to be fair, once FACT TO FILE was beaten, he didn’t have much to beat.

The FACT TO FILE over two miles experiment hasn’t worked out too well, which is fine, fair play for trying, but it will be interesting to see what MARINE NATIONALE can do in a proper scrap next season. Say SIR GINO is back and in rude health, who wins? Say MAJBOROUGH takes him on, the Champion Chase is not the most interesting it has been for years.

PUNCHESTOWN DAY 2

As normal, we’ve previewed only the ‘big’ races and today focused on the three Grade 1’s.

16.15 3M GRADE 1 NOVICE HURDLE

Yesterday was full of surprises at Punchestown – will there be more today?

JASMIN DE VAUX won the Bartlett at Cheltenham, and he was a lot better in the jumping department than he’s shown all season. This will be a sharper and tighter assignment, so jumping will be under the microscope, but he won nicely and the ground should be fine for him.

Gordon Elliott has three in here with HONESTY POLICY, CARCOUNTER, and FAMILIAR DREAMS. Preference goes to the former who is already a Grade 1 winner.
He beat REGENT’S STROLL, who showed his best ability, at Aintree earlier this month, and there’s no cap on what his ability could be. JP bought him mid-season as well, and his money is usually spot on, but this will be another tough test. Three miles should work based on his good late work at Aintree.

CARCOUNTER’s form is up for debate, and he hasn’t really raced on this kind of ground before. Question marks.

FAMILIAR DREAMS likes Punchestown based on her bumper and maiden hurdle successes, but her best piece of form seems to be her success in a Grade 3 mares’ race at Limerick in March.

She ran an okay race behind JULIUS DES PICTONS at Aintree, and while she does need to step up, she’ll appreciate this ground based on her Flat pedigree. An interesting contender getting weight from the boys.

At bigger prices, Willie Mullins has JARRIVE DE MEE, ARGENTO BOY, and LUCKINTHECITY.
ARGENTO BOY was a wise guy’s pick for the Bartlett (he didn’t run well) and then he went to Aintree (he didn’t run well again). The cheekpieces go on, and Danny Mullins gets the ride. Tough to fancy.

JARRIVE DE MEE is unbeaten over hurdles, and he bolted up at Haydock in March. He likes the ground, and who knows what he could be like ability-wise. This is a huge step up, however.

LUCKINTHECITY will stay based on his Cork win, but his form isn’t anything to shout about. He’ll like the ground though.

FLEUR IN THE PARK rounds off the field. He has form with THE BIG WESTERNER and THE YELLOW CLAY, so he could be a player. He ran a pretty solid race in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse lto, but MR PERCY had him fairly beaten at the line. A big run at his odds is not out of the question.

Verdict: No strong view in this as it looks a bit of a headscratcher but we’ll side with the unbeaten JARRIVE DE MEE who comes here fresh having not contested any of the big meetings thus far. He’s more an interest to see how high he can go through the ranks.

16.50 GRADE 1 CHAMPION FLAT RACE

The Grade 1 bumper is not a vintage renewal this year, and lots of form already interlinks with each other.

BAMBINO FEVER won the Champion Bumper, and before that, she beat SWITCH FROM DIESEL at Leopardstown. On that form, it’s hard to see SWITCH FROM DIESEL reversing the form, though maybe the better ground could work for her. She is a bit of a bumper specialist.

As for BAMBINO FEVER, she looked impressive at Cheltenham, and it’s hard to knock anything she has done up to date.

Maybe the ground is a worry? This will be the fastest conditions she’s faced, and she’s had three races since December 31st. However, she does look pretty solid.
Leopardstown’s Grade 2 bumper at the DRF has produced two winners already, and the horse who beat them all was COLCANNON.

He also has form with SIXANDAHALF from last year’s Punchestown Festival, and he also beat HEADS UP at Galway in October before he went on to finish second in the Champion Bumper.

This has been the plan since the DRF, so he could be the one to beat BAMBINO FEVER. There was a lot of hype around COPACABANA ahead of Cheltenham, but his performance was pretty poor. He could well bounce back, much like KALYPSO’CHANCE who also disappointed, and Patrick Mullins keeps the ride on the BLUE BRESIL five-year-old. Will the ground be too quick for COPACABANA?

As for KALYPSO’CHANCE, his effort at Cheltenham was a complete difference from his previous bumper performances. It was potentially a case of too bad to be true, and he was a bit keen around Prestbury Park. A return to a winning track and the benefit of a recent run could give him a chance here.

CLASSICAL CREEK isn’t the choice of Harry Swan, so that is a small negative, though he has form on a sounder surface. First run for 136 days, however. SUNNY SOUTH WEST completes the field. He will also like the ground, and he won 34 days ago, but he will need a career-best.

Verdict: Mullins has won 8 from the last 10 running’s of this race. We don’t have an interest in this, or any of the Punchestown races quite frankly but shan’t oppose his fave and good Champion Bumper winner in BAMBINO FEVER. We imagine Gordon was disappointed in his runner at Cheltenham, his horses weren’t performing that week so more can be expected there but has it all to do if he’s to reverse that form.

17.30 GRADE 1 PUNCHESTOWN GOLD CUP

Four runners for the Punchestown Gold Cup is kind of poor, but it’s quite an intriguing race, so it’s worth watching.

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is back. He shouldn’t be written off based on his Gold Cup second as that was still a big effort, but Punchestown isn’t his favourite track, and he wouldn’t mind a bit of cut.

Still, this is arguably an easier race than he’s faced over the last two years, and he is still one of the greatest chasers we have seen since KAUTO STAR.
SPILLANE’S TOWER is having his first run since the King George, and that’s not because of a setback, it’s because of the ground.

Now then, he may have ability, and he actually beat GALOPIN DES CHAMPS when second in the John Durkan, but the ground would have to be a worry, surely?

If they don’t want quick for him, Punchestown in late April is not the place to be. It’ll probably be slower than what Aintree was earlier in the month when he was a non-runner, but still, there’s a small question mark.

BANBRIDGE won the King George, and the quicker the ground, the better his chance gets. The Gold Cup was probably a step too far regarding trip, so 3m1f around Punchestown should suit nicely, but he does have the formidable task of taking on GALOPIN DES CHAMPS. He has his conditions.

MONTY’S STAR completes the field. He has form to reverse with SPILLANE’S TOWER from this meeting last year, and he maybe hasn’t been at his best this season. Tough ask.

Verdict: We’d love to see GDC on top for racing and for the punters.

YOUNG BLOOD

13.10 5F ROYAL ASCOT 2YO TRIAL

A powerful field of 14 for this years heat, near treble the amount of runners that any other heat in the last ten years has seen. Some big, big pedigree’s in this race… blink and you might miss’em!

WISE APPROACH cost a cool million. He’s the half brother to champion PERFECT POWER. Dam is is 2 runners, 2 winners - one runner was a champion and the other placed in the Chesham. Huge pedigree for Godolphin and is market leader at 2/1.

DICKENSIAN is one of several debut winners in the line up and he’s strong in the market at 7/2. By first season sire PINATUBO, he is out of 100 rated fast ground winning mare meaning todays ground should be bang on for him. Carries a winners penalty.

SIREN SUIT has seen some support. By champion 2yo CHURCHILL, he’s a Cheveley Park bred colt out of the dam ANGELS HIDEAWAY who was a 100 rated Group winner. He’s already had a run which would have put him spot of for today. Big market move of him and shortening all the while.

CREDIT FORGEDD IT is by first season sire SPACE BLUES and his dam is a half sister to first season sire SUPEMACY. He’s from the family of HARRY ANGEL.

Archie Watson saddles TADEJ. He’s by ARDAD who had the aforementioned champion PERFECT POWER in his first crop. This lad is out of a FRANKEL mare and has the champion RIBBONS as his grandma.

GOLDWORK is an unraced DARK ANGEL colt for a yard good with their 2yo’s. He’s out of a SHAMARDAL mare from a deep Godolphin family. For the pedigree he was relatively cheap as a yearling at 65k but that’s probably because he lacks a good walk in his sales video.

INCA HEIGHTS is another first time out winner repping Clive Cox. By NANDO PARRADO, he’s out of a dam who has produced numerous winners to a good standard. He got first run on the field which meant he bagged his debut race but the form is yet to be franked and he carriers a penalty. Will need to improve today.

SUPER SOLDIER only just got up first time out for Karl Burke who had tipped him up on a Luck On Sunday episode. His dam side is limited so like INCA HEIGHTS will need to improve if he is to overcome his winners penalty.

Tom Clover is repped by ANGEL OF ANFIELD, a fitting name given events last weekend. By HARRY ANGEL and out of a winning but moderate mare, he could be one for handicaps.

Given this field, the rest have no chance but will give the owners a lovely day out in the sun.

Verdict: punters might be drawn into the big milli price tag of Godolphin’s WISE APPROACH. Big pedigree, big price tag - big run expected, surely. But given he’s so valuable, Charlie Appleby might be inclined to take his time with him. Plus, first day at school. DICKENSIAN 100/30 would be the vote. Yes, he carries a penalty but that debut form is good and you know he has some boot rather than guessing with a few others. Stall 7 will give Shane Gray options. The other horse who should run a big race is GOLDWORK for Eve. He’s already won a barrier trial behind close doors and did it well. He didn’t beat much but at least he’s already ‘had a race’ so experience won’t be an issue. If he runs well, then it bodes nicely for the yards better 2yo’s who are yet to appear. 14/1 ew.

RISK ON

We will be punting live from Ascot today, any bets will be posted on X @equinties.

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