Equinties - Punchestown day 1

Gm Equinauts

When Oisin didn’t show up for his books of rides at Southwell Sunday, it wasn’t long until the first charge of whatsapp messages were sent flying round early Sunday morning.

The first message we saw we knew was wrong. It purported Oisin crashed his car and killed someone in Chelmsford. This was not true (and as such made us question every thing else we received).

Oisin was local to his home in Berkshire Saturday, we know this as a fact. He definitely wasn’t in Chelmsford. We also knew he was 100% going to Windsor on the Monday because a local group had planned to go and support. Nothing beats a Monday night at Windsor… punting in the sun, a few beers, drivers back home after a quick stop off at the Royal Oak. That’s the way to get a good week started.

But why had he missed Sunday’s racing? Those closest to him were certainly keeping under wraps to us.

More ‘forwarded many times’ messages from came through that Sunday afternoon and this time swap out Chelmsford for Hermitage and change female passenger the dreaded d word for badly injured, followed with a link to a Thames Valley Police report, then suddenly we’re thinking ‘shit, this is true’.

The car in question was an A-Class. Oisin doesn’t drive an A-Class. He’s just bought a brand new S-Class… mainly driven by his chauffeur. Another reason we grasped on to that is wasn’t him.

We really didn’t want it to be true, no one does. Oisin is the best rider on the planet at the moment and we just want to see him do his thing. So, even with the evidence building up against him, supplied directly from faces in the weighing room, we thought there was still a chance a bad rumour had moth-balled. Plus, Windsor was still very much on!

On early Monday afternoon the press were first to confirm that the police report appealing for witnesses to a serious injury road traffic collision in Hermitage, West Berkshire, was in fact related to Oisin Murphy who had suffered a severe crash early Sunday morning.

Balls.

Oisin’s agent then announced he had been in a car accident ahead of Monday’s racing.

Cocaine and alcohol bans have already tainted his volatile career and most recently he suspiciously missed a breathalyser test last year in August blaming a ‘haemorrhoid’ problem.

It’s quite clear the most talented rider in the world has serious issues, it’s as simple as that. He simply can’t keep a lid on it in the evenings, which is sad because he’s a man with the racing world at his feet and it’s looking like he might never fulfil his potential if this is his continued route.

What’s worse is that it was his weighing room counterparts who were so quick to share his most recent episode as if it was a hot tip.

Rather than share the gossip and blow the story up ahead of his Windsor meeting, they should be trying to help him. But then again, he’s better than them so why would they. That’s a sad truth.

We hope the girl in the car is okay. Oisin will be feeling awful for whats happened and we hope this is the final wake up call for him before it’s too late. The racing world will be a lesser place without Oisin riding.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

FILLIES GALORE

“We weren’t sure she was going to make it, but it looks like, at the moment, she will.”
That is what Aidan O’Brien said regarding LAKE VICTORIA for the 1000 Guineas this weekend. So, having been fairly negative about her participation in Newmarket, she is a likely runner on Sunday.

This looks like a great addition to the race. Admittedly, because of her interrupted prep, you would have to be worried about her immediate credentials, especially against a horse of DESERT FLOWER’s class.

But, if she didn’t make the race, the 1000 Guineas does look awfully weak, so her inclusion in the second Classic of the year will be much appreciated by the bookmakers.

O’Brien provided this update at Naas yesterday after SIMPLY ASTOUNDING won the opening six-furlong maiden, and well, she lived up to her name.

She was good, and O’Brien’s runners can always be upgraded for doing that on their first start of the season, so where next?

It looks like it will be the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot before stepping up in trip later in the season. Moyglare Stud Stakes? Where ever she goes, she’s one to follow because with her pedigree (WOOTTON BASSETT out of MINDING), she’s only going to be exciting.

PUNCHESTOWN

We were going to preview but the Grade 1 Novices’ Hurdle but with KOPEK DES BORDES at 2/7 we really feel there is no point.

16.50 3M 1F GRADE 1 CHAMPION NOVICE CHASE

The Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase form features heavily here, but will the correct bits hold up? Let’s see.

BALLYBURN went off a warm favourite for the Browns, but he was poor. His jumping went to pot, and he didn’t really stay up the hill, yet he’s back in here as a favourite ahead of the Browns winner.

In fairness to BALLYBURN, he recovered after his mistake on the first circuit, but he could never lay a glove. Paul Townend has kept the ride, and he must be showing something at home, but he is short enough.

As for LECKY WATSON, he is the Browns winner, and he is pretty solid.

He’s unbeaten over fences, he won at Punchestown over fences earlier in the season, he’s a good jumper, he travels well, and he’s ground versatile.

We don’t need to tell you that this is a lot of ticks. Yes, he has been underestimated throughout his career, and that is probably a negative when taking on classier stablemates, but he has the ability to uphold the form in this sphere.

IMPAIRE ET PASSE is interesting. He won a Grade 1 at Aintree when beating JANGO BAIE and GIDLEIGH PARK, but this is his first dive into a staying contest, and it’s 3m1f to be exact.

To us, he doesn’t look like he’s crying out for this step up in trip, despite his class. His rivals were closing at Aintree, and they did the same when he won the Faugheen in December. Asking a horse to go 3m1f after 2m4f is a big ask, so it’ll be interesting to see how he goes.

SLADE STEEL will probably come in for money, but this is his first run for 134 days, and it’s his first run at this trip as well. He ran a fine race behind LECKY WATSON on his latest start, and that form has worked out well, but LECKY WATSON was nicely on top on the day. He may also prefer softer ground. He needs a big run.

STELLAR STORY and GORGEOUS TOM were behind LECKY WATSON in the Browns, so that form needs to be reversed, but STELLAR STORY was only four lengths behind, so it isn’t impossible. He is a nice horse, and his form with THE JUKEBOX MAN from the Bartlett has worked out, but he might just lack the class. His form over fences isn’t amazing, bar that run in the Browns.

CHAMP KIELY is a big price, and he could hit the frame. Again, this is his first try at three miles, and he did have a big setback ahead of this season. He’s running nine days after finishing third in the Grade 1 WillowWarm Gold Cup, and he isn’t the most obvious answer.

DON’T RIGHTLY KNOW completes the field. Nice horse, not nice enough here.

Verdict: BALLYBURN was a banker for most at Cheltenham but he didn’t show up, those who punted him then will be nervously looking for redemption today at a much more appealing price! He’ll have to reverse the form with LECKY WATSON who looks the ew play.

18.00 GRADE 1 CHAMPION CHASE

FACT TO FILE over two miles. Considering they thought he was a Gold Cup horse after the Ryanair, that’s pretty mental. He looked really good in the Ryanair Chase, and he probably does have the turn of foot to hold up here, but it is certainly an unknown for this horse, especially against the current Champion Chase winner.

His class might just see him through here. It’s certainly fascinating to see him here.

MARINE NATIONALE is the Champion Chase winner, and Barry Connell is finally getting to show people what he has been seeing at home.
However, we have a question mark hanging over the Champion Chase. He was in a tussle with QUILIXIOS before QUILIXIOS fell at the last, and there’s no certainty that he had him beaten.

QUILIXIOS hasn’t held the strongest form this season, so that is maybe a small worry. Still, he is in good form and he’s proven over the trip.
EL FABIOLO hasn’t been in good form this season, so that is instantly a worry.

On his best form, he could go very well, but he hasn’t shown that best form all season, and he looked rather laboured at Aintree. On a revival mission.
SOLNESS has two Grade 1s next to his name this season, and he beat MARINE NATIONALE at the DRF.

His record right-handed isn’t outstanding, but he beat GAELIC WARRIOR earlier in the season over two miles, and he is prone to getting freebies in these small-runner fields. Chance.

CAPTAIN GUINNESS is getting on now, and he may not be in his greatest form. Still, he was second in this race last year to BANBRIDGE, a King George winner since, and ahead of DINOBLUE, a Mares’ Chase winner subsequently. That’s good form, and it’s not out of the reckoning that he could return to his former self.
SENECIA completes the field. He won a Grade 2 on his last start, but he probably shouldn’t be too good here.

Verdict: FACT TO FILE hasn’t been seen over this trip since his bumper days but he didn’t look short of pace in the Ryan Air which he won in devastating fashion. We think he’ll be fine at 2 miles and looks the horse to beat.

RISK ON

After a good winner yesterday in Ireland in SIMPLY ASTOUNDING, we are tools down today waiting for the rockets at Ascot.

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