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Equinties - Punchestown day 1
BGP Capital
April 28, 2026
Gm, Equinauts
The Willie Mullins Festival—sorry, Punchestown—often feels more like a brilliant piss-up than a true racing festival. It’s been a long season, plenty of the top horses don’t turn up, and, ultimately, it’s not Cheltenham.
While the Dublin Racing Festival builds excitement and offers key clues for the months ahead, Punchestown can feel more like an opportunity to string together a few Mullins accumulators. And there’s nothing wrong with that—it’s just the reality of where it sits in the calendar.
That said, it’s still racing—and we love it—so we’ll be previewing every top race, every day.
If you’re going to play any reverse forecasts or placepots, do it here (they pay more): Tote | Offers
Let’s dive in.
PUNCHESTOWN DAY 1
16.15 GRADE 1 CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE
Willie Mullins has won 7 of the last 10 running’s of the jumps seasons’ last ‘champion hurdle’, last year with the unfancied IRANCY at 18’s when KOPEK DES BORDES blew up at heavy odds on. Had his big Supreme run at Cheltenham taken too much out of him? If that was the case, then EL CAIROS backers beware!
EL CAIROS heads the market at a short 7/4 and although he’s had well over a month to recover, last years result just shows how taxing Cheltenham can be on young horses. We fancied EL CAIROS in March owed to his blistering speed but perhaps the tough nature of the track didn’t suit and Punchestown might be a lot more up his street!
KOKTAIL BRUT had a tough race at Fairyhouse at Cheltenham. He could be a tired horse today!
SKYLIGHT HUSTLE ran in the Turners until a tired fall. The drop back to 2miles should prove a good move. His form with TALK THE TALK gives him a bit to find though.
LE LABO and BLAKE reoppose for round 2 after their humdinger at Naas. LE LABO won that day and comes here fresh with BLAKE on a recovery mission after falling when very tired last time out. We’d be siding with the fresh LE LABO to maintain the form here.
EACHTOTHEIROWN has too much to find on ratings.
FREE SPIRIT and TOO BOSSY FOR US complete the field are both 25/1. The former is fairly unexposed and has a big pedigree (out of a flat winning half sister to Grade 1 winner FOX NORTON), he could still be anything and is a very slick hurdler. The latter didn’t like the ground last time out so ignore that, his Supreme form makes him far too big as he could have finished a lot closer to EL CAIROS had he not fluffed the last.
Verdict: If EL CAIROS has recovered well after his Cheltenham run, then he’s the horse to beat here and although we suspect he will LOVE todays conditions. Grade 1 winner SKYLIGHT HUSTLE is his biggest threat now dropping back in trip. On the basis TOO BOSSY FOR US should have finished closer to EL CAIROS in the Supreme, the pricing differential between the two means he could be the value ew in this race.
16.50 GRADE 1 CHAMPION NOVICE CHASE
Harry Cobden was masterful on KITZBUHEL at Cheltenham, we handed them the ride of the week award. That tactic would have demanded a huge effort and although he sets the clear standard here, you just don’t know how much that took out of him. He is fairly lightly raced though and this will only be his fourth run of the season.
PREDATORS GOLD was travelling like a good thing last time out in the Fairyhouse Gold Cup only for falling two out when going through the fence. The race wasn’t the standard of Cheltenham’s Brown Advisory which KITZBUHEL raced in, but PREDATORS GOLD looked very good at the time - we’d loved to have seen him stand and finish the race because we think he probably would have won that. In our minds, that already puts him ahead of the likes of the reopposing KAPPA JY PYKE and race winner FLEUR IN THE PARK.
The are reasons to take on the others, such as OSCARS BROTHER running in the National and JULY FLOWER having too much to find etc.
Verdict: How can anyone look past KITZBUHEL here? Bar a ridiculous error at Sandown he’s got a flawless record over fences and we’re not sure why you’d look elsewhere. If you’re going to back KITZBUHEL, play a single on the Tote because if he does get chinned by fresher legs on the day, the Tote are money back for 2nd and 3rd.
18.05 2M GRADE 1 CHAMPION CHASE
Well, this could be a hum dinger. It is stacked. Okay, they’re not generational talents (although don’t tell Barry Connell that lmao) but they’re all the best we have right now and take it in turns to beat each other up. Welcome to the 2 mile champion chase lottery.
IL ETAIT TEMPS is the Cheltenham champion, earning that title with one of the most dominant victories of the week. He put his Ascot fall firmly behind him—reassuring to see, as prior to that setback he had looked every inch the new king of the two-mile division.
MARINE NATIONALE needs no introduction… because Barry Connell will have told you about him already. His praise for this horse is insufferable and although we love connections loving their horses, sometimes you just need to let them run and speak for themselves. The better ground will suit today but he needs to be arriving here cherry ripe after his set back which ruled him out of Cheltenham.
We said this about MAJBOROUGH during Cheltenham:
He’s worse than JONBON round Prestbury Park but today’s not Cheltenham so we shan’t crab him today however we do think MARINE NATIONALE will reverse the form on the better ground.
ENERGUMENE has been a champ for Mullins but he’s getting on a bit now and we feel his sights should be lowered.
BLOOD DESTINY hasn’t got a chance unless they all fall.
Verdict: This race is the perfect race to try an exotic on the Tote. We think IL ETAIT TEMPS and MARINE NATIONALE might finish in that order. Play the straight forecast here:
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