Equinties - Punchestown day 1

Gm Equinauts

Punchestown day 1 is here. For us it means it’s the last time we get to see the worlds best jumps horses before they get turned out for their summer holidays.

It’s been a long season for some of these horses and as such the results can be surprising… and not in favour of the punter following the market.

Use the TOTE Fantasy to have an interest in the racing without the big risk.

Find us using code QHZ36G:

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

HERE’S JOHNNY

The rumours as to who would be Fergal O’Brien’s next stable jockey were proven right yesterday as it was announced that Johnny Burke would take over from the retiring Paddy Brennan.

At the start of the season, O’Brien said that both Burke and Kielan Woods were circling for the gig, but the boss of Ravenswell Farm has finally pulled the trigger on the Grade 1-winning jockey.

On the appointment, Burke said: "It's a massive opportunity and one I'm very much looking forward to. There's a great team at Ravenswell with a lot of horses to ride. It's come at the right time in my career and, hopefully, all my experience will help.

"I've had a great few years with Harry Fry and come across some great people and great horses and it's an association I'd be hopeful to keep going alongside the role at Fergal's. I'm looking to getting stuck in, moving forward and doing the best I can."

Best of luck to both Fergal and Johnny.

MAN ON FIRE

STUDY OF MAN has enjoyed an amazing purple patch with his progeny having had 7 winners from 14 runners in April alone including one yesterday tipped up by our new gun hire Norman.

(Furthermore only 1 of the 14 runners have been out of the top 4 placings!).

STUDY OF MAN ran once at 2 winning on debut on heavy going. From the start of his 3yo career and only his second start he was thrust in to Group company. Placed 2nd in a Group 3, won a Group 2 and won the Group 1 Prix Du Jockey Club on his 4th career start. For whatever reason his trajectory plateaued out for the rest of the season but he came back as a 4yo to be placed 2nd in the Gr1 Ganay and Gr1 Prix d’Ispahan.

STUDY OF MAN is bred in the purple as his second dam is the mighty Miesque dam of gun ex-Sire KINGMAMBO who stood at Lanes End Farm in Kentucky. For 11 seasons he stood for 3 figure sums.

The Lanwades hotline would have been ringing all weekend with breeders trying to get there late foaling mare or changing mating plans to get in to the young Stallion who stands for a fee of £12,500. If his progeny keep this up he’ll be standing for double that fee next year.

BIG RACE PREVIEWS

The below previews are going to have changeable verdicts depending on what the weather does. With the racing in the evening, that means there is a big window where the pending rain could change the going. Be careful if betting.

15.40 GRADE 1 CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE

The re-match. THE POWER VS THE STEEL.

Round 1 went the way of SLADE STEEL in the Supreme who clearly liked the rain sodden conditions of Prestbury Park’s mud more than MYSTICAL POWER.

De Bromhead will be doing the rain dance all day today but is it too late? Quite possibly.

If you like MYSTICAL POWER then you might like the price of FIREFOX who nearly beat him at Aintree. There isn’t much in it and meaning 15/2 is value. Plus it looks like he’s better right handed. That said, we think he’s a ‘next year Arkle horse’.

The others all have a bit too much to find on recent form, and the market should have the winner at the top with the only danger to them being the long season they have had.

Verdict: If the ground cuts up with a bit more rain (it’s due), SLADE STEEL is absolutely the one to beat again but this isn’t a betting race.

17.25 GRADE 1 CHAMPION CHASE

With the exploits of JONBON and EL FABIOLO at Sandown last weekend, the next level of the two-mile chasing division is on show today and DINOBLUE heads the market. She gets 7lbs from the field and she was solid in the Grade 2 Mares’ Chase at Cheltenham. It probably wasn’t the trip that did her that day as she was nudged along to keep with the pace around the bend. Against the boys will be tough today.

CAPTAIN GUINNESS was the one who benefitted from EL FABIOLO’s mishap in the Champion Chase as he finally got his day in the sun.

He is the one in here who has form with JONBON having finished second to him in the Grade 1 Celebration Chase last season and he probably idled up the Cheltenham hill lto despite winning. He could be better at this track.

BANBRIDGE is dropping back to two miles for the first time since he was beaten by EL FABIOLO in the Irish Arkle last season. Prior to that, he won at Cheltenham over fences on decent ground at two miles, but there is a lot of rain scheduled for the morning and that could see his chance diminish. Connections will be hoping the clouds pass them quickly.

GENTLEMAN DE MEE is the last of the single-figure prices having finished second to CAPTAIN GUINNESS in the Champion Chase. He’s been at most of the big battles this season without landing one, so it’s hard to see him getting into it.

Willie Mullins’ final two horses in the race are SAINT SAM and DYSART DYNAMO at the bigger prices, and this could be DYSART DYNAMO’s best chance at a Grade 1 success. He was a progressive novice last season though he has been weak this year. He’s coming into this a fresh horse and he won fto as a hurdler and novice chaser, so a case could be made for him.

Of the rest, FIL DOR is dropping to two miles having done poorly over two-and-a-half on his last two starts. He was second to EL FABIOLO at Cork in the Hilly Way and that form looks strong despite a few disappointing efforts at Sandown and Cheltenham from EL FABIOLO, so a case could be made for him at the prices.

Verdict: This is a ground dependant verdict as BANBRIDGE could scalp the hot fave on good ground. If it rains and the going turns to slop BANBRIDGE has no chance. DINOBLUE in slop, BANBRIDGE ew on good. Don’t bet until before the race if you’re playing.

18.00 GRADE 1 CHAMPION NOVICE CHASE

MONTY’S STAR is putting the FACT TO FILE form to the test in the penultimate race of Punchestown tomorrow and he heads the market. This is just his fourth chasing start, so you can imagine he’s still improving and he has the pedigree linking with MONALEE (fourth in the 2020 Gold Cup), so there’s a lot to like about him.

SPILLANE’S TOWER is the one vying for favouritism alongside MONTY’S STAR and he is stepping up in trip which should see some improvement. There is a lack of pace in the race, so if this is slow in the early parts, he could use his superior speed to gain an advantage as he has won over two miles.

You’d think the two should be clear of the rest as EMBASSY GARDENS is 0/3 in Grade 2 or better races and he needs to find his form again after being disappointing in the National Hunt Chase but we have our own theory.

There were loud whispers on the day of the race that the National Hunt Chase was fixed. The money backed that up. And the theory makes sense; a two horse race, each owned by billionaires. JP vs Mulryan (of Ballymore). Quite easy to make a gentleman’s handshake and do a deal on the outcome - land the gamble, both owners win.

EMBASSY GARDENS drifted off fave markedly just before the off and was ridden like he should never have been there suggesting the whispers were true. Anyway, that’s just what we’ve heard and if true, means EMBASSY GARDENS has a monumental run in him. He can show up today!

AMERICAN MIKE, like MONTY’S STAR, has form with FACT TO FILE having beat him over 2m4f at Navan in November. His best form is on a slower surface, and although some rain is coming today, it might be a touch too quick for him.

Of the rest, SHARJAH could be the best of a weak bunch at the bottom of the market. He seemed to have no trouble with three miles lto and if it is slow, his speed – like SPILLANE’S TOWER – could be used to the best effect.

Verdict: we love listening to the conspiracy theorists because racing is one of the only sports where most of them can be true…so on the basis the billionaires plot is true, we’ll side with EMBASSY GARDENS to improve and win today.

RISK ON

17.25 DINOBLUE

Different class, should just win. BANBRIDGE could follow her home. 6/5.

19.55 KODI LION

Was a bit green last time at Kempton so if he can settle better today then he is undoubtedly the one to beat. Will love the soft going too. In fact, more rain is probably welcomed. Strong single even money (2.0 exchange).

Become a paying subscriber of Premium to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

A subscription gets you:

• • The weekender edition (Mon-Fri still free)
• • The weekends best bets
• • That warm fuzzy feeling inside knowing the intern gets fed
• • Only £1 a week!