Equinties - proposing change

Gm Equinauts

As we suggested yesterday, Aidan O’Brien is confirmed they are toying with the idea of sending the superstar to Saratoga for the Travers Stakes on the dirt if all goes well over in the UK. 

Labelled as “our Frankel” by Michael Tabor, the Dewhurst winner is 4/6 for the Guineas and 2/1 for the Derby to try and do what AUGUSTE RODIN failed to do last season. If he obliges in both of these UK Classics, the $1,2000,000 Travers Stakes, won in the past by ARROGATE, WHIRLAWAY (the only horse to win the American Triple Crown and the Travers Stakes), and EPICENTER in 2022, could well be his next assignment.

O’Brien said: “The plan is to go straight to the Guineas with City Of Troy. “If that went well, then he could go for the Derby, and if that went well, there's a chance he could go to Saratoga for the Travers Stakes. That's very possible if things go well and it will be interesting.” You can’t fault O’Brien’s ability to aim his stars at the competitive races.

This is what we want to see in the sport!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

TIME FOR CHANGE 

In what will probably be our final rant on the Cheltenham Festival for some time, Richard Forristal of the Racing Post stuck his neck on the line to propose interesting changes to the Cheltenham programme… which received mixed feedback.

It’s been no secret that the Cheltenham Festival needs a revamp. Odds-on favourite after odds-on favourite is not what jump racing’s Olympics should be, so slightly tightening the options for these novices and offering a few more handicaps – like making the cross country a handicap – makes, in his mind, the betting (and general) product exciting.

We were open minded about Richard’s suggestions until he wanted to start messing about with the XC. Take the XC out of your f*cking mouth (in loud Will Smith voice. We know a lot of people use the XC as an opportunity to go get a beer but we love the XC… and yes, we are totally biased because we clean up in it every year.

But Richards other key points are more than reasonable and worth exploring such as binning races to enhance others, the removal of the Turners and Ryanair to boost competitiveness in the likes of the Arkle et al.

Scrapping all intermediate-distance chases at Grade 1 level is a bit harsh – so these suggestions might need to be blended with the ideas of others, say, Kevin Blake for example who thinks changing the Turners and Gallagher to novice handicaps could be beneficial.

One of the most stark changes in Forristal’s proposal is the number of races - six races per day. If it’s being kept to four days, then this should be welcomed. Even as the biggest racing fans, we find seven races across four days is tiresome, so just dropping one race off the top of each day could see people with enough energy to want to come back day after day and therefore improve attendance.

As for Blake’s changes, these look a bit more sexy. Excluding novices from handicaps to then have two novice handicap races could work nicely as you are then forcing the ‘unexposed novices’ like STATE MAN in 2022 to show what he is worth in Grade 1 company while also giving an option to the more exposed, and potentially not as good, novices in handicap company.

These lists, and any other propositions, should be looked into because currently, the Cheltenham Festival needs a change. But take note, it’s not just about the race planning, the aforementioned proposals don’t even touch the surface in terms of the other commercial things Cheltenham could do to boost racing fans experience. Take the Royal Ascot and the Breeders Cup for example - they put on huge prize money and incentivise foreign competitors by subbing their travel expenses. Why won’t Cheltenham do that for French horses?

We best stop there as there is simply too much to discuss but you’ll appreciate with the idea of a complete overhaul is needed - starting at the top of the BHA!

BURKES BRUTE

Okay, okay, he’s not 40/1 right now, but that’s the price Karl Burke backed NIGHT RAIDER at to win the Guineas a few months ago, and after last night’s success he seems to have a nice bit of value. 

The three-year-old by DARK ANGEL impressed on debut in December to win by an easy nine lengths, and on his first start for 99 days, he showed his immense ability yesterday to beat COGITATE by five lengths. 

Just for reference, COGITATE beat the now 107-rated BOILING POINT by two lengths on debut as a two-year-old before he finished fifth in the Group 2 Acomb Stakes at York in August. 

So, with a hands-and-heels ride from Daniel Tudhope, putting five lengths between himself and the second (and 19 lengths between himself and the third) looks seriously impressive. As such, talk of the 2000 Guineas was mentioned post-race, and although Sky Sports tweeted he is 8/1 in places for the race, you can still back him at 16/1 for the first Classic of the season. 

Although there will be stronger challenges for NIGHT RAIDER – for example, CITY OF TROY in the Guineas – he looks like a horse to be excited by.

BIG MONEY DOWN UNDER 

Yu Long campaigned ALCOHOL FREE down under after buying her for 5.4million guineas two years ago. She didn’t place better than 4th in 5 starts but still managed to pick up a handy 400K. It’s believed she has been covered by FRANKEL this year!

This weekend Group 1 winners VIA SISTINA and PLACE DU CARROUSSEL run in the Gr1 Ranvet Stakes for the same owners. VIA SISTINA was bought for 2.7million guineas at the Tatts December Mares Sale last year and PLACE DU CAAROUSEEL was bought for just over 4million euros at the Arqana Sale last year. Both have a long way to go to reimburse their multi billionaire owner but it will be great to see them take their chance down under against 6 other rivals. One of their big opponents is 3x Group 1 winner THINK IT OVER (by SO YOU THINK) who has amassed over 8million AUS dollars for his owners.

TWEETS OF THE DAY

RISK ON

We were very close to landing the 14/1 tri-cast yesterday as ASCENDING LARK bolted in and DAMEOFTHECOTSWOLDS followed her home. It was the biggest priced PHONE HOME who let down the party - was a speccy bet but definitely worth a shot at the lottery prize.

There are a load of shorties who should oblige today, some acca’s will be landed no doubt especially if they include the likes of GO TO WAR, LADY BALKO and mega-shortie ESPOIR DE GUYE but its tough to rely on everything going perfectly so we’ll steer clear and play singles on:

16.25 TWILIGHT GLORY

Two wins at track, will love the ground and reasons to take on the others including a ground concern for the well backed fave in LEADING SWOOP. 9/4 a good bet.

18.00 CELTIC WARRIOR

This horse is the reason the newsletter is late today - we’ve been discussing whether he’s worth following. There was a lot of hype about this horse last season in the Balding yard but he’s run too badly to be true. He’s worth chancing a small ew at the 8’s available, especially given the yard are +45£ profit with handicap debutants. Play and pray he’s as good as they thought.

REMEMBER

The flat season proper will be kicked off nicely Saturday with Donny’s big betting 2yo race the Brocklesby which we have a huge track record in:

We have a pretty good idea who wins this years renewal. Don’t miss Saturdays Brocklesby edition by subscribing to the link below. For just £1 a week, you also join the Equinties weekender racing club which already has an exciting horse to run this year. Click below to join the club.

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