Equinties - promising fillies

Gm Equinauts

Weather watch again. It rained in biblical proportions over Newbury yesterday,

for about 10 minutes.

It’s another hot day in Berkshire and the going will be quick but the storms are coming…

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

GAMBLE A NON-RUNNER

X was a brilliant place to be yesterday,not just for those Coldplay memes. Racing X got involved with some banter too.

Early in the morning, for a bit of engagement farming, numerous X accounts of the big media/bookie companies posted that there was a bit of an ante-post gamble on DELACROIX for the Sussex Stakes

But there’s really not much to see here. Yes, an Aidan O’Brien horse was heavily backed and one went the other way, but we’re still a couple of weeks away from the event, and, at the time, O’Brien hadn’t said anything regarding the future targets.

Furthermore, it did seem a bit far-fetched that DELACROIX was going to step back to a mile having won the Ballysax, Derby Trial, and King George this season.

Anyway, we didn’t think much of these tweets, until a loud-mouthed tipster emerged claiming that the gamble was caused by his members group.

That Twitter Tipster was ex-Betfair personality, someone called Daryl Carter,

Weirdly he wanted to claim he was moving a Group 1 market which, given how far out the race is, isn’t implausible, but wholeheartedly accepts the horse is likely NOT to go.

Odd.

Anyway, a few people went back and forth with Carter on the subject, partly due to the claims about moving an entire Group 1 ante-post market and partly due to other reasons, which obviously created much entertainment. This certainly made yesterday one of the spicier days on Racing X, and the news was far from being done.

Having seen the commotion caused by the gamble online, racing’s media got in touch with O’Brien to find out if there was any truth in the gamble. This links back to a previous point made about gambles not necessarily meaning that decisions had been made, because O’Brien all but ruled out DELACROIX from the Sussex.

He said: “The plan for Delacroix and Camille Pissarro is that they are both on the York programme. Henri Matisse will go for the Sussex.”

So, what did we actually learn from yesterday?

That some people are happy to back a value loser.

There is no pride in poverty.

TALENT WASTED

Put yourself back in February 2024. The hype around the Cheltenham Festival is rife, ante-post slips are still alive, and we still think CONSTITUTION HILL is a world-beater.

Yes, it’s that long ago.

At this time, we were building up to a number of big clashes at the Festival. STATE MAN vs CONSTITUTION HILL, JONBON vs EL FABIOLO, and BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD vs DYSART ENOS.

Little did we to know that by the time Cheltenham rolled around, none of these duels would occur.

Funnily enough, CONSTITUTION HILL’s first sign of malfunctioning (his Kempton gallop) occurred on the same day Fergal O’Brien had a press day ahead of the Cheltenham Festival, and all the chat at Ravenswell Farm surrounded DYSART ENOS.

Honestly, at the time, O’Brien struggled to have her beat, and that makes what has happened since a bit sad. DYSART ENOS was ruled out of the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham on the morning of her run, and since then, she’s finished third in the Greatwood, seventh in the Ladbroke, eighth in the Mares’ Hurdle, fourth in the Scottish Champion Hurdle, and fourth in a 1m3f Kempton novice stakes.

That’s not an illustrious list of form, considering there was so much hype around her in the season of 2023/24. However, it seems like O’Brien has had a plan for her, and that plan includes the slight pipe opener she had on the Flat earlier this month.

In the Racing Post, he said: “You would have to say last season was disappointing but she finished with a good run in the Scottish Champion Hurdle and the idea to run her in the Galway Hurdle was mentioned after that. 

“We gave her a run on the Flat recently and she ran okay. At the end of the day she's a hurdler and we felt like she would get in off a nice mark here. The ground will be nice at Galway and she likes the sun on her back. She is very straightforward and has been working great.

“We haven’t looked past Galway but I’d love to get her back on the Flat, she didn’t run badly the other day. She doesn’t like the depths of winter, so we'll try to make hay now while the sun is shining.”

So, there are a couple of things to take from this. Firstly, they have now come to the conclusion that she isn’t a winter horse. He sounds like Dan Skelton!

They’ve ran her on soft before, and if she was to be campaigned towards the spring festivals, she would have to have her prep runs in the winter. You’d have to be a small bit worried regarding her future over hurdles/fences going forward if the ground is soft.
Secondly, and this is away from his quotes, just what has happened to DYSARY ENOS?

She has really fallen away from what she was once thought of. Is it a case of she’s lost her ability, or did she maybe never have it in the first place?

Having had plenty of time to make up for a few poor runs, our money would be on the latter. There’s a case to be made that she is a bit of a hot-headed mare that shows too much at home and not on the track.

Anyway, the Galway Hurdle is next, and if she wins that, then she has certainly put us doubters to one side.

PROMISING FILLIES

We all remember the Duchess Of Cambridge, right?

ROYAL FIXATION gave VENETIAN SUN a proper race, but thankfully for punters, Karl Burke’s filly got her head in front (that said, those who distant bet her got liquidated).

At the time, it was hard to know what to think of the race. Did VENETIAN SUN disappoint, was she undercooked, or did ROYAL FIXATION just improve massively?

We think the latter.

Look, it might be a combination of the three as she looked a touch below her Ascot effort, and Burke admitted he hadn’t done anything serious with her at home since Ascot, but Ed Walker was so sweet on ROYAL FIXATION post-race that she clearly must be pretty smart.

Well, in a double-whammy on news, we have updates on both horses - simply confirming our suggestions to get on ROYAL FIXATION now for the Lowther!

Starting with VENETIAN SUN, Karl Burke said: “Venetian Sun is 100 per cent, she’s had a nice easy week on the water treadmill and we’re very happy with her.

“We’ll start preparing her and look at the Prix Morny and see whether we go. If we go there we’ll go on to the Moyglare, or we could go straight to the Moyglare.

“We’ll see how she is and make a decision closer to the time.”

As for ROYAL FIXATION, Edward Brown of Opulence Thoroughbreds said: “Royal Fixation is an unbelievable filly who possesses a lot of raw, natural speed and talent, when she came into Ed’s yard everyone was very complimentary about her.

“We thought we’d aim high in the Duchess of Cambridge and thought she’d run a strong race but we’d all seen how good Venetian Sun was at Ascot.

“We rode her different, wanting her to settle, which she did, but then you ask yourself if she’d got out quicker would she have got up and won? We’ll never know.

“We’re going to head for the Lowther now, I think the track will suit her and they are talking of Venetian Sun going for a Group One, so we don’t have to worry about her.

“You wouldn’t rule out her getting further but if she runs well in the Lowther, you couldn’t rule out her going for the Cheveley Park. Being by Palace Pier, she could stay further next year but for now we’re concentrating on the Lowther.”

The main point of focus is that both will be split up next time… but we knew that which is why we’re betting ante-post. 

Still, even if VENETIAN SUN did rock up against ROYAL FIXATION again, we know who’d we prefer!

Good luck to VENETIAN SUN in the Morny, but we only care about the Lowther… which Ed Walker won last year!

STATS OF THE DAY

Only one standout stat today:

James Tate has a 67% strike rate when travelling >200 miles and todays sends recent Royal Ascot Hampton Court Stakes 5th GREAT DAVID 360 miles for the 19.10! A nice drop in class for this lad.

RISK ON

Another good day yesterday as ROGUE SUPREMACY and HIBERNATE obliged.

ASCENING STAR is very short but looks a good one to lever something and there is a good message for Wathnan’s EXCLUSIVE CODE in the 15.00. That could make a good double…

Else where we like:

18.35 DOUBLE RUSH

Hills has had a terrible year but he loves this lad. If he can’t win this then we’ll stop following him… probably. 7/4.

19.20 SPACE RAIDER

Following the last time out Nottingham form line with yesterdays winner HIBERNATE (and OTTOMAN who was expected to win). This drop back to a mile looks ideal and can land his jockeys first winner since coming back from a long break. Looks an ew to nothing at 4’s.