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Equinties - progeny double
BGP Capital
March 05, 2026
Gm, Equinauts
The Supreme has had a shake up this morning with MIGHTY PARK set to take his place for the wizard Willie Mullins hwo fvoured the shorter trip over the Turners.
Poor old IADHO SUN has been scratched from it, that must have been painful for Fry.
And in a weird turn of events, JONBON has remained in the Champion Chase. Nicky must be looking at the current state of it and thinking, yeh come on then… ONE MORE GO.
Cheltenham bingo is fully underway! God it’s exciting.
Let’s dive in.
HEADLINE ROUNDUP
SUPPLEMENTED
A culmination of an electric bit of work at Kempton in front of NO DRAMA THIS END and CONSTITUTION HILL’s withdrawal from the jumps scene has successfully baited big Paul to roll the dice with his ever-improving TUTTI QUANTI and supplement him for the Champion Hurdle.
Last week, TQ laid up sides Turners fave NO DRAMA THIS END at Kempton and did so with ease, hard held. Okay, NO DRAMA THIS END is a stayer but it was good work:
Has he been this years forgotten horse? We certainly haven’t backed him this season or admittedly, really taken much notice of him. He finished 6th when having a jog round in last years Supreme (he was never put in the race) but since is three from four, seeing his rating rise from 128 to 151.
Paul doesn’t know where his ceiling is and has previously described him as ‘a big backwards type’ - this offers up hope that there is a lot more to come?
Let’s take a quick look at the race and work out if he has a chance.
We’re assuming with the pending forecast, the Champion Hurdle will be run on soft ground. THE NEW LION needs soft ground so he is the right favourite for the race, there has been some money on the machine for LOSSIEMOUTH suggesting that Willie might be tempted to finally put run her here instead of the mares (we have no idea) and despite Gordon’s claims BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD is in a different form to last year, she has simply never showed up in March. After those three protagonists, the market is more open and of the rest, we genuinely think TUTTI QUANTI would much prefer the slop over the horses in font of him including reigning champ GOLDEN ACE, last years Triumph winner PONIROS and the improving ALEXEI.
In short, considering this years Champion Hurdle is so wide open, the supplementation of TUTTI QUANTI makes total sense and at 16/1, definitely has place chances should the ground show up soft.
Do not underestimate how strong an influence the going will have on the results at Cheltenham and this years Champion Hurdle is a race which will be impacted most.
PROGENY DOUBLE?
The Champion Hurdle is seemingly wide open this year for all it’s a weak affair. LOSSIEMOUTH’s potential participation might save the credibility of this years race, because let’s be honest, without her, it’s more a glorified handicap with THE NEW LION heading the market without an rpr over 160.
Let’s take nothing away from THE NEW LION though. Had had stood up, he’d be unbeaten. On four legs, he is unbeaten! so who are we to say he can’t mature into a certified champ. He certainly has a good pedigree, let’s take a look at it.
He carries the all important SADLERS WELLS blood line through his sire KAYF TARA who has produced some absolute stars (think THISTLECRACK!). His dam side is just as powerful though for his mare, the unraced RAITERA, was a half to three time Grade 1 winner GOLDEN SILVER for Willie Mullins. GOLDEN SILVER was a top horse at Closutton before sadly suffering a fatal injury at only 9yo - who knows how good he could’ve been. There is massive scope for improvement should THE NEW LION follow in his uncles footsteps.
THE NEW LION isn’t the only good horse out of RAITERA though. Once top handicapper EL PRESENTE is one, and she also has the improving CHUGGY (by WALK IN THE PARK),
but she’s also mum to another hot Cheltenham runner, does anyone know who?
KATERIA!
At 12/1 , she is firmly near the top of the Coral Cup market and Dan has absolutely not been been able to hide his grin when discussing her chances in his yard tours (we can’t believe he even used the same ‘spring time sun on her back’ excuse he used for LANGER DAN lmao).
Dan clearly been running her down the handicap and as a result, runs with a feather weight. It will be tough as a mare to win the race but some punters are loving her chances and no one really knows how good she is - let’s not forget that Aintree form in 2024 when she beat this years Gold Cup contender JANGO BAIE. That’s mega.
We THINK, the progeny double has only ever been done once before and that was in 2024 when INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN and LIMERICK LACE each won their respective races for Gavin Cromwell. Full siblings too.
The progeny double can be done and honestly, THE NEW LION and KATERIA have a big, big chance in doing it for fat Dan.
GAMBLE DQ’D!
From one horse supplemented for a race, to one who was disqualified now as Joe Leavy failed to weight in after landing the W on Kempton’s gamble of the evening PENNY TIME.
The MEHMAS colt trained by Hugo Palmer sustained massive late support before the off and duly obliged in Kempton’s novice stakes, but ultimately left his backers in tears as most online bookmakers took back their money when Leavy weighed in light.
PENNY TIME, who had reportedly worked the house down last week and was labelled a ‘rocket’, was disqualified from the race meaning Balding’s SIOUX NATION will go down as the 6 length winner lol!
He was evidently green throughout but the penny finally dropped late (pun intended) and get got up to win quite comfortably in the end. Disqualified or not, PENNY TIME is one to keep a close eye on.
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