Equinties - problem Prosser

Author

BGP Capital
July 12, 2023

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

This newsletter derives most of it’s winners from extreme ground conditions based on the fact it so easily separates pedigree’s. From a punting perspective, we love extremities, but no one in their right mind is going to punt every race and when an spectacle such as the July meeting is on, racing rans just want to see great horses battling in historic races.

Enter Newmarket clerk of the course, Michael Prosser.

He made Guineas weekend a total bog from over-watering. Look, it might have worked out in our favour (CHALDEAN won the big one) but that’s beside the point, look what happened to LITTLE BIG BEAR and AUGUSTE RODIN, those monsters basically pulled up. AUGUSTE RODIN went on to win the f*cking Derby ffs.

Now Prosser’s at it again, whacking a load of water on the track when THUNDERSTORMS are due over Suffolk. How is this happening?

We know we’re not the only one’s concerned, Betfair’s Tony Calvin is asking questions too:

Charlie Appleby has obviously had a quiet word in Prosser’s ear so ADAYAR can run. Yes, he’s a headline act (and we know Appleby needs all the help he can get right now to try salvage the terrible season he’s had) but if Newmarket goes heavy, then that’s just not cricket and there will be a load of disgruntled trainers, owners and punters.

It’s summer racing. Firm ground is what it’s supposed to be and right now, one of the fastest horses in the country is in danger of being stuck in the mud due to Prosser’s incompetence.

Let’s all hope Newmarket escapes the rain.

Rant over, let’s dive in.

BGP FANTASY LEAGUE COMP

We’ve been hyping up the TOTE’s new Fantasy game since we found it. Why? Simply because there is nothing else out there now which can help people cage the betting chimp while maintaining an emotional interest in the big races of the day.

People bet way too much and the Fantasy allows you to get limited risk on, fill your brain up with the dope it craves and still be in the mix for a big win.

If we hit 250 stables, top of the BGP private league get’s a new ‘GM’ cap.

Tote

HEADLINE ROUND UP

Does the Shoe fit?

With the flat season entering it’s latter stages and the inevitable ‘last Frankie Dettori ride’ drawing closer and closer, the question of who will replace him has to be asked.

Could it be James Doyle? Hollie Doyle? Or even Rab Havlin? JOKE. IT WAS A JOKE.

Speculation around the water cooler was rife yesterday as news broke that Kieran Shoemark was set to ride SOUL SISTER in France.

Despite the booking and rumour mill working in overtime, John Gosden has downplayed the chat about having Shoemark as the next retained rider at Clarehaven, as he said: “Someone asked me the other day if I would be retaining a jockey next year but I haven’t retained a jockey since William Buick left to go Godolphin and before that Frankie in the 1990s. Retained jockeys are out of fashion right now. That’s for an owner, not a trainer.”

He’s got a point.

Dane down

Yesterday, the opening race at Wolverhampton was stopped and voided after Dane O’Neill was chucked off his mount, EAGLE EYED TOM, after the stalls opened.

It was a nasty watch – he goes from a slow start to decking the floor in a matter of strides.

Luckily Dane remained conscious and was taken to hospital. He’s suffered a number of cracked bones in both back and ribs but looks set to be okay after a period of rehab.

But what about the interference - who’s to blame and will any action be taken?

Interference has been a hot, hot topic of discussion in recent years as a number of events causing unfairness have occurred with not much action being taken. In fairness to the Stewards overseeing these matters, unless horses a few yards from the winning post, it’s hard to determine how the outcome of a race has changed.

That said, common sense often appears absent in occasions like these when, using one’s own eyes, it’s clear to see horses chances of running well and winning are long gone waaaay before the race really gets going. Is that fair? No.

Scenario - Dane’s mount stayed up right but was stopped in his tracks by ‘that’ sandwich between Morris and Mitchell. His race is lost at the start (before the 100yd marker where horses leaving the gates need to stay straight). Is that fair?

King George confirmations

And finally, 19 horses have been confirmed for the King George at Ascot later this month.

The big two that still remain are AUGUSTE RODIN and KING OF STEEL, horses that could clash against each other for the second time this season after their Derby ding-dong.

Following a great win for Roger Varian’s strong colt at Royal Ascot and AUGUSTE RODIN’S questionable win in the Irish Derby, KING OF STEEL is 7/2 compared to the 11/4 about AUGUSTE RODIN. It looks a fascinating rematch.

Others still in the mix are EMILY UPJOHN, HUKUM, and that yak DESERT CROWN.

STATS OF THE DAY

The 17.45 is a horrible 0-60 handicap but LIBERTY BREEZE goes for Whitaker who is 2 from 4 in this race (also runs ROUND THE ISLAND in the other division) but more stats for LB as he is 3 from 6 at track and won this race last year. Coincidently, the half bro to an absolute rocket out tomorrow.

Boughey is 2 from 2 in 3yo maidens at Bath and runs MOONSPIRIT in the 19.40.

RISK ON

The good stuff starts tomorrow so low size across three singles today.

16.00 THE GOOD BISCUIT

A very poor novice event but the fave looks good for it. Won a sellers race easily lto so no pen today and the fast ground will suit. Full bet at 6/5.

17.40 SKALLYWAG BAY

Best form lines in this race, she’s obviously in good spirits (important for a filly) so she can make amends for getting chinned at Windsor lto. SO SMART has only won once in 28 starts and the real danger LIPSINK is repping Cowell who is in very poor form. Only playing because the price has drifted out to 15/8 which looks good value. Half bet at 15/8.

18.30 RAWAASI

Looks a tough race on paper with Bading’s having it’s second run (they always improve a heap) and ZOUMOON supposed to be nice, but whispers are this Crisford filly could be better than them all. Sh*tty stall 11 and should really be a leave on that basis but there is some real size movers on this girl and the messages are too strong to ignore. Half bet 2/1. Would be full if not for the stall.

Todays’ leverage for any single should be IVORY MADONNA at 8/11 in the 17.05. Amazing how she hasn’t won yet.

Protect your bank at all costs this week, there are some great bets coming up.