Equinties - poignant win

Author

BGP Capital
February 07, 2024

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

This years most poignant win in racing happened yesterday as Harry Cobden steered FIRE FLYER home in a hard-fought battle against SECRET SQUIRREL.

FIRE FLYER was looked after each day by one of Ditcheat’s much loved work riders Keagan Kirkby who sadly died Sunday in a tragic Point to Point accident.

What a nice touch this was:

That win has slammed Cobden into strong fave for the Jockeys Championship at 7/2 on.

Remember when we said take the 2/1 floating about Cobden for the title when we heard Bowen would be offer longer than than the racing press described? You’re sitting well in the money now! You’re welcome.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

PASSE ON CHELTENHAM

Scratchings for the four Championship races at the Cheltenham Festival occurred yesterday and IMPAIRE ET PASSE was taken out of both the Champion Hurdle and Stayers Hurdle. 

The Ballymore winner was third in Sunday’s Irish Champion Hurdle, but connections don’t believe he is performing up to standard and are looking to target Aintree with him. This could see him line up against BOB OLINGER in a rematch that could be mouth-watering, especially over 2m4f at an even track of Aintree.

Similar to BOB OLINGER, connections believe he wants a bit further than two miles, as Anthony Bromley said: “The feeling after Daryl (Jacob) rode him the other day was that we need to keep him to two and a half miles and there isn’t a two-and-a-half-mile race at Cheltenham. We’ll wait for Aintree and see if we can get him sparkling again. This looks like the right decision. He would have to run in either a Champion Hurdle, that he can’t win, or a Stayers Hurdle at a trip he is really unknown at.

WEATHERING THE STORM

A high spell of wind could scupper the plans of Willie Mullins at this year’s Betfair Hurdle as OCASTLE DES MOTTES could be unable to travel over the Irish Sea. 

High winds on Wednesday may refrain the French import, running in the double green silks of Simon Munir & Isaac Souede, from travelling over on the ferry which would stop plans for the well-backed 5yo to run in the £155,000 contest.

The half brother to MARTA DES MOTTES, a mare we know very well, has been slammed into 4/1 favouritism for Saturday’s feature handicap, though Anthony Bromley - racing manager of the owners - believes that is a “mad” price.

He said: "It's ridiculous he's favourite, but that's because of connections and the unknown quantity of him. I'm not a gambler, so punters can make up their own minds, but two miles might be too sharp and he needs to get into the tempo of the race to learn about it." 

A LOOK AHEAD

The uncertainty on whether Mullins’ ante-post gamble will race Saturday leads us nicely on to a look ahead at Saturdays main race, the Betfair Hurdle. 

OCASTLE DES MOTTES is the current favourite and would be having his first run for 238 days as well as his first run for Mullins and first run in the UK off a mark of 133. That doesn’t fill us with confidence as moving yards is a big stress on a horse, let alone moving countries! Even if they do decide to run, we’ll be taking him on.

In behind the French import, there are some proper two-mile handicap hurdlers. IBERICO LORD is next in the market and is one of two entries for JP. He won the Greatwood two starts ago and enjoys the slop so the expected rain will aid his chances. 

JP’s other runner is UNDER CONTROL. She was well-backed for the Gerry Feilden in December and travelled like a winner before fading. She bounced back to form when second to ASHROE DIAMOND at Doncaster lto, so off 137, she should be well-handicapped. She also beat IBERICO LORD last season when 8lbs split them in the handicap, now IBERICO LORD is wrong at the weights by 5lbs. Not many mares win this race.

ALTOBELLI and TELLHERTHENAME are the two horses who have yet to win a big handicap but for varying reasons. ALTOBELLI saw the ground go against him at Ascot lto, a race that was his season-long target, whereas TELLHERTHENAME is yet to race in a handicap and could be well-handicapped off 135 with his JANGO BAIE.

Pauling can do no wrong at the moment and if you fancy TELLHERTHENAME you’ll have to trust his last performance and forgive his PU when going off close fave in a Grade 1 two starts back at Aintree.

Harry Derham has waited a while to run BRENTFORD HOPE in the Betfair Hurdle and he has course form from his 16-length success in early November. He had a 3lb claimer on that day and is 11 pounds higher than that success, so he could find it tough.

As for LUCCIA, she has proven herself at Graded level thanks to her third in a Grade 1 behind INTHEPOCKET at Aintree in April, though she is still battling in handicap company. Classic Graded horse in a handicap? Not if the ground is soft.

At a big prices? 

LOOKAWAY is solid at 11’s. He got stuffed by IBERICO LORD at Cheltenham but does get a small swing in the weights. Whether it is enough to turn the form around, we don’t know but if you fancy IBERICO LORD then this chap can’t be too far behind him.

Verdict: It will be wise to wait to see who actually line up in this but IBERICO LORD 8/1 looks a good bet in this. He should have beat stable/owner mate UNDER CONTROL when they faced off at Sandown - he was given a stinker of a ride, so that’s one beat (and he gets weight of her this time!). He also stuffed LOOKAWAY, LUCCIA and GO DANTE at Cheltenham, easily, so that’s three beat there.

His last run when beat by the aforementioned LUCCIA (and ALTOBELLI) stinks. He never looked like winning and was given an easy ride by Nico. The ground was faster than he’d have liked but we do think he wasn’t supposed to win that day. If the ground turns soft/heavy with all the rain forecast, he’ll love that and we think he’ll be bang there if he runs.

IBERICO LORD to win and LOOK AWAY to run well in to the places. The big unknown would be TELLHERTHENAME but he needs to prove it.

TWEETS OF THE DAY

YOUNG BLOOD

This section highlighted another Pauling bumper winner yesterday, he’s got his yard firing in the winners. A trainer on the up thanks to his new set up!

No bumpers today so we will look at the pedigree’s in Ludlow’s juvenile hurdle.

13.50 JUVENILE HURDLE

ROYAL WAY was a winning bet for the newsletter last time out. He did it so easily it’s hard to know how much he can improve but that sets the standard. His eased down second behind SIR GINO looks good now. He returns to Ludlow, the scene of his last easy victory, with a strong chance. But can anything (on pedigree) beat him?

ORCHESTRA is by versatile stallion GOLDEN HORN. He was very disappointing last time in a race he was backed in like losing wasn’t an option. In the end he was well beat by a Derham flat bred. Whether that was too bad to be true or not, it didn’t look good and needs to be taken on today

ITHACA’S ARROW is seeing some early support,12’s into 6’s and reps a sire who is quite unexposed at producing jumpers. Stamina dam side gives him place chances.

PALIO is still a maiden and was pulled up last time. Has the pedigree to win something but whether it’s today or not we’re unsure and he’d require a huge leap of faith to back.

The second GOLDEN HORN in the race reps up and coming young trainer Llewellyn (a name really annoying to type out!). Stamina dam side, has as much chance as Fergal’s GOLDEN HORN.

Derham runs a bad ROARING LION. It would be a miracle to see him win this.

As for the others, there are some notable pedigree’s such as ALBERT PARK but the prices say ‘NO’.

That said, we can’t stop looking at ST JUST IN TIME at 150/1. Again, the price says ‘NOT TODAY’ but we have gambled a few Todd horses before where the price was stupid…and they won! This lad has probably the best dam side for jumps in the race and his sire brings the stamina. First time out means he might be going for a spin out the back but he shouldn’t have any problem in the jumping dept. being trained by someone who is undoubtedly the most famous name ever to exist in eventing.

Verdict: the only horse coming into this with any form is ROYAL WAY and he looked pretty good last time. This race is a little better and he carries a pen but we think he’ll still be tough to beat. We love his pedigree. Strong bet.

We can’t help but but have a little play on ST JUST IN TIME at 150/1 (Betfair) just in case.

RISK ON

We’ll have a couple of small play on the two Young Blood horses plus two big prices on the below. Small stake today as we’re looking at big prices including 30 and 150 to 1 and relying on mares (yuk).

15.10 YOU SOME GIRL

Bad mares race with a bit of a gamble on MIDNIGHT SHUFFLE. Menzies carries a feather weight back at the track where connections not only target, but where she fell at three starts back when looking to bolt up. She has a lot to find in this company but could be well treated so a small ew at 7’s.

15.20 AH WHISHT

Playing a small ew single at 16’s and the rev fc with the fave here paying 14’s and 30’s. The fave looks hard to beat as the price suggests but we know Symonds’ is useful on a going day and can be in the mix. A bit of a lottery bet so don’t bet if you can’t handle an L. In fact, stop betting at all.

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