Equinties - perfect timing

Gm Equinauts

The BHA announced it will call off a days racing in protest of the governments proposed betting tax (which we spoke about earlier in the week).

We’re not quite sure why they think the government will care about this. It really boggles the mind smh.

Ah, well.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

PERFECT TIMING

Four days. That’s all the time it took for Sam Sangster to see a return in his purchase of DIEGO VELAZQUEZ from ‘The Lads’, as the FRANKEL colt won yesterday’s Group 1 Prix Jacques Le Marois.

There’s a lot to unpack here, so let’s hit it.

Firstly, there’s the race itself. If betting markets were formulated on pedigrees alone, DIEGO VELAZQUEZ would go off a short price every day he turned up to the racecourse.

He’s a FRANKEL half-brother to BROOME and POINT LONSDALE, and he even has the likes of ZIMZALABIM (Group 1-placed) and DUST DANCER (Group 3 winner) further back through the pedigree. Furthermore, let’s not forget that DIEGO VELAZQUEZ was bought for 2.4 million guineas as a yearling, so there was plenty of hype around him.

However, up until yesterday, he had, at times, failed to deliver on the hype that was bestowed upon him. He bombed out in the Futurity Trophy as a juvenile, he was beaten in two Group 1s as a three-year-old before winning a Group 3 and Group 2, and he was ninth of 10 in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes earlier this year.

Even though he did win a Group 2 at the Curragh after Royal Ascot, he went off 12/1 in Deauville yesterday, and Aidan O’Brien had THE LION IN WINTER much shorter in the market at 3/1. And yet, DIEGO VELAZQUEZ went and won the Jacques Le Marois. He travelled nicely behind DANCING GEMINI, and even when he came off the bridle with a length to find, he fought very hard to just hold on.

If we’re being honest, NOTABLE SPEECH probably should have won, and on another day, he would have with a clearer run, but he just couldn’t quite get there, meaning DIEGO VELAZQUEZ is the much deserved 2025 winner of the Group 1 Prix Jacques Le Marois.

This leads into our second point about yesterday’s Group 1 win, and this involves his recent purchase.

Sangster took a risk when he bought DIEGO VELAZQUEZ earlier this week. He knew that he couldn’t get one of Ballydoyle’s star horses, because the Coolmore lads will want to keep them, but Sangster also needed to get a horse that was still half decent.
That’s a tricky couple of requirements to achieve, but DIEGO VELAZQUEZ certainly does fit the bill. He probably saved a few pounds as well because he wasn’t a Group 1 winner already.

But now, Sangster has a Group 1-winning son of FRANKEL heading to the National Stud to stand next year, which is a big difference to what he bought only four days ago. He took a gamble, and it’s paid off nicely.

Post-race, an emotional Sanger said: “It means a lot, we're so lucky.

"MV [Magnier, former co-owner] is one of my oldest and greatest friends and when I came to him with the presentation of buying the horse to stand at the National Stud, he was fully supportive.

"We were lucky to buy him and we're even luckier now, that's for sure!

"He's an absolutely gorgeous horse, he's so tough, so genuine. He's a phenomenal mover and to be honest, when he came out of his box you could already see him at the stallion barn at the National Stud.

"I'm a little lost for words to be honest, but I'm so delighted. He deserved to get that Group One today and I'm just so delighted to be involved with him."

On his future run, O’Brien said: “We thought he'd be a horse for the Coolmore Turf Mile at Keeneland and then maybe the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He loves fast ground and is fast himself.”

As for NOTABLE SPEECH, it’s another time where he’s had a bit of a luckless run through the race. He was a bit unlucky in the Queen Anne earlier this season, and he probably didn’t suit the July Cup too well at Newmarket, despite finishing fifth.
He deserves a Group 1 this season, and Charlie Appleby is hoping a trip to Canada before the Breeders’ Cup will do just the trick. He said: “We’re delighted with the way he ran. It’s always tough to be beaten by so little, but the most important thing is to see the horse back to his best.

“We dropped back in distance last time and you have to try things sometimes, but a mile is his trip. We’ll work back from the Breeders’ Cup, and I’d imagine we’ll go to Canada next for the Woodbine Mile.”

Finally, DANCING GEMINI deserves a shout out after his third in the Marois. He cut out most of the running after the two-furlong pole, and this was his first run for 61 days after a pretty busy first half of the year. He will come back to France in search of some potentially softer ground nto, as Roger Teal said: “He’s run an exceptional race on ground that was probably on the quick side for him. He wasn’t completely at ease on it late on.

“Next up will be the Prix du Moulin, where we hope there might be a bit more ease in the ground, though he doesn’t need it very soft.”

MARKET MOVES

As is typical with this game, the betting markets find out before we do… or do they?

Yesterday, the whole of racing X had eyes on the Juddmonte market as DELACROIX took a quick and violent walk in the market indicating he was unlikely to show up at York.

OMBUDSMAN backers were licking their lips.

Weeellllll, after all that, DELACROIX has actually been declared and subsequently been smashed back in.

The memes have been fun.

Speaking of market moves, the Japanese are still seeking a winner in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and could this under-the-radar prospect be the one to break this streak?

That’s because ALOHI ALII blew the field apart in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano, and having been as big as 100/1 for the Arc before this weekend, he is now around 20/1.

He was impressive, and he has a good form line to compare against. RASHABAR, the runner-up, was no match for him, and he has some great form in the book. As a juvenile, he was second to CAMILLE PISSARRO (French Derby winner) in the Lagardere, and as a three-year-old, he finished fourth in the Irish 2000 Guineas to FIELD OF GOLD, COSMIC YEAR, and HOTAZHELL.

Considering he has this level of strong form in the book, to smash him up in the manner AHOLI ALII did catches the eye. The distance of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is an unknown at this stage, but his trainer, Hiroyasu Tanaka, is hopeful he will be fine.

He said: "After the Satsuki Sho [2,000 Guineas] I decided with the owner that we would take up the challenge in France and were originally aiming at the Grand Prix de Paris, but Alohi Alii was not in such good form, so we turned to this race with a view to preparing for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. 

"Obviously, Christophe knows Deauville very well and he is a jockey with whom I've had a lot of success, so he was the automatic choice for the job.

“I think he could be even better over a mile and a half and I think two months is perfect timing to prepare for the Arc, given he had been off for four months before this race." 

Usually, when these Japanese horses come to the Arc, they are well-backed and become a price that is hard to follow unless you really fancy them. In this case, he is 20/1 for the Arc, and he will be coming into the race with a win in France under the belt, which is huge. He is certainly on the radar for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and he’s a nice price as well but do note, the ground will be very, very different come Arc day!

WEEKEND EYE-CATCHERS

GETREADYTORUMBLE - SATURDAY 14.25 SATURDAY

These sprint handicaps can be quite tricky to work out, but the one on Saturday unfolded as the market expected. RHYTHM N HOOVES (one joint favourite) beat GETREADYTORUMBLE (the other joint favourite) in a close finish, and when the market gets it right, that suggests that the form of the race could be worth following. GETREADYTORUMBLE made a nice move behind ROACH POWER with just under two furlongs to go, but he was kind of forced between a gap just before the one-furlong pole, which didn’t look too handy. He wouldn’t have won, but he could have had a clearer route, and he could still be a horse with pounds up his sleeve later this season.

MARVELMAN - SATURDAY 15.35 NEWBURY

MORE THUNDER was quite smart in the Hungerford Stakes on Saturday, and he could well be a Group 1 horse for connections, which is nice.
However, MARVELMAN, the third, caught the eye, and he has some good form in the book.
He made his own way down the near side when push came to shove, and he wasn’t disgraced when MORE THUNDER slid past him. He stayed on through the line, and it has to be a positive thing that MORE THUNDER and WITNESS STAND (a Glorious Goodwood winner) were the only two horses ahead of him.
He has a nice piece of form with COSMIC YEAR from Newmarket earlier this season, and MARVELMAN really should land a Group race this season.

The other eye-catcher will have caught everyone’s eye, and not just ours:

RISK ON

It’s York week so we might be a bit quiet until Wednesday but will have small stakes on three we like the look of:

15.15 FLOW STATE

A bad horse and bad race but it looks time for this lad to get his head back in front for a yard finding form. 100/30 is a pro’s ew to nothing or small win bet for recreational punters.

18.30 GAMRAI

Oisin replaces Hollie Doyle as retained rider for this big owner. The message for this lad last time out was powerful and burnt a lot of fingers on debut. Yard mate to beat but with the pedigree, it’s possible. Taking on odds on fave so small bet at 2/1.

19.30 SUMMERTIME BLUES

A shortie but looks a goodie. Well bred and should be well handicapped. 11/10.

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