Equinties - Paul's plot

Gm Equinauts

Warwick yesterday, Fontwell and Wetherby today and Stratford and Kelso tomorrow, the rain is wrecking racing right now.

Statements like ‘it hasn’t stopped raining this whole year’ used to lazily exaggerate this horrible bout of bad weather now really aren’t far off the truth.

It’s enough to make you want to move to Spain or Portugal with all the old expats and live a simple life in the sun playing golf.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

TITLE RACE

Not many people have watching the trainers or jockeys championships as a priority coming into any season, but this NH season’s jockey and trainers championship have proved very proved entertaining spectacles, each telling their own different story. 

Harry Cobden and Sean Bowen have had a ding-dong battle all season. Sean Bowen took the early lead but a bad knee injury has allowed Cobden to take over to hold a 15-winner lead over the early-season pacesetter.

The close friendship between the two has allowed their rivalry to play out like a pantomime and has been fairly entertaining to be fair. 

With the jockeys championship all but done and dusted (pay us out the Cobden title bet you horrible bookies) our attentions now turn to the battle between big Paul Nicholls, the 14-time champion, and his former assistant trainer Dan Skelton. 

According to Skelton, he didn’t even know he was anywhere near the top until someone told him after PROKETORAT’s win in the Ryanair Chase, but since then Dan Skelton has been firing plenty of runners at the wall, (only achieving five winners from 45 runners over the last two weeks though!).

As for Nicholls, he’s only had 29 runners over the last two weeks, but he has returned one more winner than Skelton and he has a much bigger two weeks to come. 

PIC D’ORHY, KALIF DU BERLAIS, CALDWELL POTTER, BRAVEMANSGAME, GINNY’S DESTINY, MONMIRAL, TAHMURAS, and JUBILEE ALPHA are just some runners who are expected to make the trip from Ditcheat to Aintree.

"Pic D'Orhy [Grade 1 Melling Chase-bound] is probably top of the list of hopefuls,” said Nicholls. “He missed Cheltenham, he’s in good shape and seems to be improving even at his age. I’m really looking forward to him. This has been his target since Ascot. He's nice and fresh and ground-wise he’s versatile. We’re very happy with him.

"Kalif Du Berlais is really smart and appears to have improved since his run in the Adonis. I don’t think he was at his very best at Kempton and he seems to have come on for it. He's jumping great at home."

It’s set to be a big few weeks, so make sure to watch out for the Nicholls runners.

HORSEPWR

It would be remiss of us not to mention yesterday’s new BHA initiative, HorsePWR, that was promoted on Racing X. 

After threats to the sport from the likes of Animal Rising, racing has come together to ensure the sport is fairly represented through amateur initiatives such as #standupforracing. Everyone remembers Kevin Blake’s exploits on Piers Morgan Uncensored last year, and even the voice of racing Richard Hoiles has taken part in debate.

Now racing’s own governing body has taken a forward step in an effort to ensure racing is backed should anyone wish to debate, or more, attack the sport. The site will provide data readily available to either side to ensure debate is carried out with facts only.

Let’s hope it works.

A LOOK AHEAD 

Usually, our handicap preview comes earlier in the week, but we’ve saved our look ahead as we were unsure about what the weather would be this weekend and if some courses would still be on. One place that will almost certainly be on is Kempton on the all-weather and the 14.40 £100,000 Rosebery Handicap headlines the card, with John & Thady Gosden’s INTINSO at the top of the market.

He is race-fit and he got his first handicap win on the board at Wolves last month where he won by nearly three lengths at odds of 8/15. He’s a half to AMTIYAZ, a Royal Ascot winner, but 98 could be a steep mark.

OLD HARROVIAN has raced four times for Andrew Balding, though this weekend is set to be his handicap debut. His last run came in Group 3 company in May 2023 when HASKOY won the Al Rayyan Stakes. The form of the race is solid as ISRAR, BOLSHOI BALLET, YIBIR, and KEMARI went on to frank the form. He’s back after 322 days, so may he want the run? 

Similar to OLD HARROVIAN, CANNON ROCK is having his handicap debut after just three runs and he is race fit after a nice success at Southwell in March. When with Charlie Appleby and Godolphin, he won at Newmarket over 10 furlongs, but the form of that race has worked out awfully. You’d also question why Godolphin got rid.

CHILLINGHAM finished fourth to VAUBAN at Royal Ascot when rated 97, and both VAUBAN and ABSURDE have gone onto much better things. He was also second to PRYDWEN on his last start of the season who has since improved 11lbs, but there could be more in here ready to improve past the five-year-old. 

Speaking of that CHILLINGHAM - VAUBAN form, CEMHAAN was three-and-a-half lengths ahead of CHILLINGHAM that day and he performs well on the all-weather having won at the course in May. He’s by MUHARAAR who is proving himself a brilliant and versatile stallion, out of a staying GALILEO mare. Second dam reads well too. He’s top weight but for a reason as can really turn it on on his day, the big negative is the trainer - George Baker. He was a city trader and really not a horseman, there is an argument as to whether he should be training at all. The horse clearly has ability and it would be fascinating to see him out of a different yard.

LAAFI ran well fto last season in the Lingfield Derby, a race that has worked out well thanks to MILITARY ORDER, WAIPIRO, and CIRCLE OF FIRE. He then won from the front at Newmarket on heavy ground and he could still be unexposed off 98. Trained by (s)Haggas who has had a great start to the season - all of his runners are feared.

Verdict: This could easily go to one of the big trainers like Shaggas or Balding who have progressive horses to play but on raw pedigree and ability we can’t get away from CEMHAAN. He thumped HMS PRESIDENT at HQ in ‘22 who finished close 2nd in this race last year, his Royal Ascot form is good and he loves Kempton. At 12/1 he could prove a good value ew play as he’d be A LOT shorter if trained by someone else.

TWEETS OF THE DAY

RISK ON

An easy winner yesterday in ROAD TO WEMBLEY. Sir Alex Ferguson looks to have another nice one on his hands.

Today’s best bets are:

17.40 GOLDEN MAVERICK

Biggest engine in this race and bred for a future overs jumps. He jumps a lot better now and should be hard to beat with the nature of Musselburgh sure to suit. He was 7/4 yesterday making the 4/5 about him now really quite short so add to another bet if you don’t like the price.

On an incredibly tough day with what’s left of the racing, we wouldn’t blame you for watching tools down and waiting…

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