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Equinties - Pauling singing
BGP Capital
December 19, 2025
Gm Equinauts
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HEADLIN ROUNDUP
PAULING SINGING
Is THE JUKEBOX MAN the underrated horse in this year’s King George field? That’s not to say he’s criminally overpriced, because in a field of FACT TO FILE, GAELIC WARRIOR, and JANGO BAIE, it’s hard not to be a ‘big’ price. He is rated 156, after all, and JANGO BAIE (165), GAELIC WARRIOR (174), and FACT TO FILE (73) officially have a few more pounds in hand.
However, other than official ratings, just what negatives are there to say about THE JUKEBOX MAN? He jumps really well, he’s in improved form, and he is at his best around Kempton over three miles. That’s certainly the message that Ben Pauling conveyed on his pre-King George press morning yesterday, and he looked like a man who was as bullish as one could be heading into such a warm contest.
Having rewatched his Graduation Chase success at Haydock last time out, we can see the King George really suiting him. He made all at Haydock, but he really doesn’t need to do this, and he can sit off the pace and travel into a good position.
He absolutely winged his fences, and it seems like he was a little bit undercooked heading into that assignment over 2m5f last time. To do what he did in spite of this is rather impressive, but he does need to be on his absolute A-game at Kempton next week to give FACT TO FILE, GAELIC WARRIOR, and JANGO BAIE a good race.
On the press morning, Pauling said: "We're going to Kempton with a horse we have huge faith in and couldn't have in any better shape. We weren't ready for Haydock, but he showed his exuberance and showed that he's still a power-packed package of aggression and ability. He displayed those attributes superbly well at Haydock and has come out of it looking a million dollars.
"Kempton is made for him, and the faster they go the better. If you asked me where I'd like to run The Jukebox Man it'd be at Kempton over three miles. I've no intention of getting involved in any ding-dongs up front, but we won't be giving them more than five lengths.
"The Jukebox Man hasn't proved he's at this level yet. He looks like he could be, but he hasn't run in a race of this calibre.
"It's the best King George we've seen in a long time. Last year's winner Banbridge is 20-1 and there are as many as seven who could win it, when usually it's between two. It's got strength in depth, rising stars and horses at the top of their game. It's a proper race and I'm delighted to be involved.
"It's going to be one of the best King Georges we've seen in a long time, and if Fact To File and Gaelic Warrior come it's going to be a proper humdinger."
His inclusion in the race just adds to what could be a superb spectacle, and Pauling is bang on in what he says. It really is the best King George we’ve seen in a long time.
Also on the press morning, Pauling confirmed that HANDSTANDS will go to the Fleur De Lys Chase, TAURUS BAY will go to Trials Day for the Class Novices’ Hurdle, and he gave a lowdown on some of his key Christmas runners, including MAMBONUMBERFIVE who still looks well-handicapped off 139.
On HANDSTANDS, the Fleur De Lys just sounds like a race that’ll really suit him, right? 2m6f, soft ground, and a small field. He should surely relish that, and he apparently had an issue after Haydock, which could explain his bad Betfair Chase effort.
CLOSUTTON’S CHRISTMAS
“I think this year more than ever we are building to March.” That’s the quote from Patrick Mullins about GALOPIN DES CHAMPS ahead of his Savills Chase assignment, and it confirms what we were thinking about what GDC will be like at Leopardstown.
This is why, objectively, the Savills Chase will be a great race. If you knew that every horse was cherry ripe, you would say that GALOPIN DES CHAMPS should win the Savills at his beloved Leopardstown, even if he does have form to reverse from the Gold Cup with INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN.
GDC is 10yo next year, and he’s been fighting in the trenches for a good few seasons now and it won’t be long until he is in the twilight of his career and thus needs to be managed when adding more miles onto the clock. With Mullins saying if there’s one more time he can win the Gold Cup, it is this season, you can almost put your bottom dollar on the face GDC won’t be wound up for Leopardstown.
That’s why, at the time of writing, he is join favourite at 2/1 alongside INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN, a horse who was beaten 53 lengths on his first start of the season. It’s mental how the reigning Gold Cup winner can go off 18/1 for his seasonal reappearance, run like a drain, and everyone shrugs their shoulders like nothing happened! He will have come on for it, and he’s run well at Leopardstown before, so there is definitely a case to make for him this month.
And then there’s FASTORSLOW who is a super horse on his day, and you have to admit that it’s highly interesting that Martin Brassil has chosen here over Kempton for him. One would have thought that the King George would be right up his street, but instead, he’s coming left-handed to a track that he’s never won at before in the hope that he can down GDC and INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN.
Put all of this available information into a melting pot, stir it up, and what you have is a race that will pay you well if you have a strong opinion. If you fancy any of the top two, you’ll have your money tripled, and if you think FASTORSLOW is the one, how does 6/1 sound for you? That’s almost a nice betting market these days!
We can’t wait to see it, and it would be the stuff of legends if GDC won. Would we want to place our money on it to find out? That’s another story.
15.00 2M 3F GRADE 2 NOEL NOVICES’ CHASE
Ascot’s weekend card is quite interesting over the next few days, and the feature race tomorrow is the Grade 2 Noel Novices’ Chase.
Ben Pauling has two in the contest. One is 13/8, and last year’s second (who should have won) is 33/1. NO QUESTIONS ASKED is the horse that tops the market, and he probably deserves to be where he is in the betting.
Take his 22nd of 24 in the Martin Pipe out of the record, and he has a mighty fine set of form. He gave WENDIGO a good race in the John Francome last time out, though he was probably just beaten by one who was too good. There was a lot to like about what he did, and he gets 3lbs from STEEL ALLY, which is very handy.
PERSONAL AMBITION is the other Pauling-trained horse in the field. He had last year’s race sewn up if not for his huge mistake at the last, but this race is much better, and the yard probably fancy NO QUESTIONS ASKED more. His form since has left a bit to be desired, and we can’t see him winning this year due to the poor recent form he is in.
STEEL ALLY was considered for the John Francome, but Sam Thomas has saved him for this. He was quite good on chase debut over two miles last time out. A small question mark about potentially jumping out to his left is considered, and the field he beat at Carlisle also wasn’t vintage. He got 11lbs from the whole field, and they’re not standout horses.
JAX JUNIOR is a horse who is really on the up. LUMP SUM dealt with him easily at Uttoxeter, but he probably did improve a few pounds to win at Kempton. He did only beat JERIKO DU REPONET last time, and he was having his first start of the season and his first start back over fences.
Still, JERIKO DU REPONET is rated 149, and MIAMI MAGIC is a solid 134 horse who has form with GEORGE’S LAD, POTTERS CHARM, and TRIPOLI FLYER. Looks like the horse who will appreciate this extra couple of furlongs considering he won over 2m4f at Cheltenham in April.
PUSH THE BUTTON completes the field. It’s been fairly remarkable that he won over two miles on chasing debut and then pushed MEETMEBYTHESEA close over a similar trip next time, because over hurdles for the Twisters, he won over 2m5f and ran over three miles. As much as he may have his ceiling, he tries hard, and splitting MEETMEBYTHESEA and PLEASINGTON is a rather solid piece of form. He could well be one to follow over fences this season if he steps up in trip and runs well today.
Verdict: A non-betting race for us but we’d hang our hat on STEELY ALLY who will love the mud and can improve from his winning seasonal debut.
RISK ON
Our one bet DIGUB was poor yesterday. We should have played a couple at Exeter but allowed some things to put us off, that’s gambling! Exeter’s last two races were called off before THANKYOUANDPLEASE could race. He’s out again in the 14.03 which looks an easier race. If all the travelling hasn’t taken it out of his legs then he can win again.
We’ve had a couple of messages asking whether we’re following HOUSE OF HABSBURG again after his near miss last time out. We much preferred the 7/1 last time out, 11/8 is too short given most in the race will enjoy the mud.
Today we’re playing:
12.53 SALLYVILLE LADY
Bred for the mud and her last time out form is good. We priced this girl up at odds on so 7/4 is value in our book. Full stake.
13.50 EXCELERO
Should just be the best horse in this race. Top anyway and he was hard held last time out. 6/4 a full bet.
Small treble on SALLYVILLE LADY, EXCELERO and THANKYOUANDPLEASE 9/1.
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