Equinties - Pauling to prove the hype is real

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More good (but moderate) racing at Donny and Exeter today, the latter in the heavy slop and near perfect for BGP’s slowest ever race horse, big Sam. 

He returns to defend his crown in the 14.10, the scene of his maiden (and only) victory but be warned… last year God must have looked down on us and the low sun meant the race was basically a heavy ground 21-furlong bumper - accidentally one of the stiffest and toughest tests of stamina in racing. 

He’d probably need the hurdles taken out again to retain his title, but we’ll be cheering him on regardless and might even have an in-play poke when he’s about 300/1. 

Donny see’s the hype horse of the season JOE DADANCER making his return after a pipe-opener lto.

Whispers are this horse is the best Pauling has ever trained and he’s been smashed in the 13.15. Not many horses go off at 6/4 in a novice event having only produced a lto rpr of <100 when against horses running to 120 and above so the market sentiment is bullish.

If he trots up today, can he force himself into Festival contention?

Let’s dive in. 

Headline roundup

Cocooner misses Cheltenham 

Last season’s runner-up in the Albert Bartlett, MINELLA COCOONER, is set to miss the Cheltenham Festival as he has suffered a setback. 

The seven-year-old was second to THE NICE GUY at both Cheltenham and Punchestown last season over hurdles, and his novice chasing campaign got off to a rocky start as he was comfortably beaten by CLASSIC GETAWAY at Gowran Park. 

This adds to the injury woes of Closutton this season: Redemption Day, The Nice Guy, James’s Gate, Tornado Flyer, Envoi Allen. 

In what is already a wide-open Brown Advisory this year, the news from Mullins continues to add uncertainty to the contest, with GAILLARD DU MESNIL the current favourite at 8/1 – Mullins looks to be represented by him and JAMES DU BERLAIS at this current stage. 

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Well, we got an answer to this tweet. It was four. 

From 5 runners in 4 race at Taunton yesterday, Paul Nicholls win them all and brought up his 21st career century at his local track. 

Two juveniles, one novice chaser, and one novice hurdler landed the milestone for the 13-time Champion Trainer with Harry Cobden on board for all the successes – this news certainly pleased EVERYONE on Racing Twitter. 

Fair play to Mr. Nicholls, he continues to show everyone why he is the best in the UK atm.  

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Kemp - lump - ton

News broke yesterday that one Betfair punter picked up a huge £40,000 payout at Kempton on Saturday night from just a £2 Lucky 15 bet. 

Four winners priced at 12/1,15/2, 12/1, and 10/1 brought in £40,491 for the lucky punter, however, he was waiting on ORIENTAL ART at 5/1 in the last to bring in an extra £269,044.63 in a separate £3.21 each-way five-fold. 

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A long-awaited gamble 

We missed this yesterday but it’s still worth a mention. 

It’s been a long time between drinks for the Dorset-based trainer Harriet Brown, but she returned to the winner’s enclosure for the first time in 339 days as she landed a nice touch at Chepstow on the weekend. 

VALIRANN GOLD was backed in from 66’s to 12/1 ahead of the two-mile handicap chase on Sunday and duly delivered to bolt up by nearly 10 lengths. 

As expected, Brown denied that the gamble came from her yard, but she was still delighted by the result, as she said: "I'm really happy with that and it was much needed in a way. We're a small yard and it's tough against the bigger stables. It's great to get one on the board and reward the hard work and patience of everyone. 

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Doncaster bumper

One of the most expensive Irish point recruits in the UK, WILLMOUNT, heads this market in what is actually quite a tough bumper to read on paper as there are so many with good ped’s.

WILLMOUNT won his point easily and subsequently fetched >300k…that was before the point form fell to pieces. He’s by NH super sire BLUE BRESIL and out of bumper winning mare. This thing almost has to in for Mulholland or people will be laughing.

TOWNHILL reps Lacey who loves bumpers and is another point winner, albeit a British one. He went for 60k and although his pedigree is a proper NH one, it’s moderate.

Guest is a flat trainer and has a 100% sr in bumpers but he’s repped by a NATHANIEL filly (carries fuck all weight) and I imagine she’ll be out-muscled today.

Nicky Richards’ bumper runners have been running well and there is nothing wrong with his runner, looks a good price at 12’s.

JJ’s can’t win leaving Lavelle’s next in the market at 16’s. Her horses tend to need the run but I’d be wary of discounting her MILAN gelding who’s well-related dam side. Live contender.  

A horse at a larger price who is interesting is Walford’s CALL ME JACK. He’s by first season sire JACK HOBBS and I’ll be keen to see how his progeny go in the NH sphere.

I expect WILLMOUNT to win this but horses such as LUCKIE SEVEN won’t allow him to have it all his own way.

Exeter bumper

This is a case of trying to find the one who’ll stay in the mud. Heading the market at a short 11/10 is PENTIRE HEAD for Nicholls. He’s well, well related dam side but I’m sure this thing would like better ground despite his half siblings going in it. The only trouble is, there’s not much in the race.

Bailey’s HEROS DE ROMAY is next in the market and runs the half brother to ESPOIR DE ROMAY (who goes in anything) with the yard in flying form. The other main rival to Nicholls comes in the form os KING OF BRAZIL for Katy Price. By BLUE BRESIL and a half to bumper winners, he’ll need to improve on his Punchestown bumper effort to win this. My thoughts are – if he was any good then he’d have stayed in Ireland?

Keen to take on Nicholls and I’ll choose HEROS DE ROMAY in this race.

Today’s best stats 

Pauling lands more than 1 in 3 with horses wearing his wife’s tights for the first time. The gambled and hype horse of the season JOE DADANCER goes in a tongue tie today in the 13.15. Pauling also very itm with novice hurdlers at course. 

Rose Dobbin has a bullish 44% sr (4 from 9) with runners who were previously withdrawn when declared the previous 7 days. THE PLAYER QUEEN 15.00 runs today having been declared last Tuesday. 

Risk on

15.45 MACK THE MAN

Couple of pipe-openers this season and runs in a class 4 off basement mark. He’s a good horse who is better than this lot and has landed gambles for the yard before. If he can’t win today he’s finished. Only Honeyballs to beat (on going basis) and his yard form stinks. Full bet at 4’s squeezed into 5/2.