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Equinties - options
BGP Capital
November 21, 2025
Gm Equinauts
We imagine most of you, like us, will have got up early to get the Ashes on only soon to find out what England were all out for and honestly, no one would have argued with you had you called it a car crash, over, tap out.
Well, fast forward a few hours and it is ON!
We don’t know what England ate at lunch but this has seriously been one of the best bowling performances from England in modern times.
This first test has featured ducks galore. 16 wickets (at the time of writing). England on a rampage. The barmy army going wild. Stokes getting Head.
It’s classic Ashes theatre.
Oh, and the racing is good too.
Let’s dive in!
HEADLINE ROUNDUP
OPTIONS
So as we alluded to yesterday, Mullins threw a bit of a curveball into the mix yesterday, as he declared LOSSIEMOUTH for the Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle instead of sending her for the Grade 1 Hatton’s Grace Hurdle again (which he told the press he would do). Therefore, ANZADAM, the next big thing for the Donnelly’s, was kept away from the declare button.
For a while throughout yesterday, there was a lot of speculation about why this decision had been made. Suggesting whether ANZADAM was crocked was one theory that was wildly spread, but yesterday evening, Mullins explained his decision.
He said: “I just want to explain why it’s Lossiemouth taking in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown this weekend.
“I think starting her out over this trip will answer a few questions for further into the season including whether it can be a stepping stone to the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton.
“We just need to know about her in two-mile Grade Ones. On form she should win, I think she’ll cope fine with the test but we’ll learn plenty about her at Punchestown.
“Irancy is my other runner and he’s a nice young hurdler, a Grade 1 course and distance winner in the spring, but he might find things difficult giving 7lb to Lossiemouth.
“With Lossiemouth running this weekend Ballyburn will slot into the Hatton’s Grace over 2m4f at Fairyhouse (Sunday November 30) and I’m looking forward to seeing him back over hurdles.
"Anzadam will now be pointed at the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle next weekend."
So, on the face of it, these quotes are justifiable on the whole. However, there are a few points to question.
Firstly, the line about testing LOSSIEMOUTH in the Morgiana “to know about her in two-mile Grade Ones”. So, racing against IRANCY, NDAAWI, and GLEN KILN will achieve this, will it? Haha, no. She’d have more of a test in regards to the boys in the Hatton’s Grace, even if it is over a further trip. She really could just be going for this so she can win on her first start, even if she’s below her best fitness-wise, before going to Kempton.
Secondly, does this mean Willie Mullins wants to start his British trainers’ title charge early or has he looked at Dan’s flying start and wondered if chasing him would be in vain? Maybe.
And finally, does this decision have anything to do with the horse with the lowest head carriage, BALLYBURN? He will now go to the Hatton’s Grace, and it now gives him a good starting point to his season regarding a potential Stayers’ Hurdle campaign.
With this change in targets, LOSSIEMOUTH can now win another Grade 1, BALLYBURN has a nice start to his season, and ANZADAM gets to try his hand in at the deep end at Newcastle. Win, win, win. A clever tactic.
TIDY CARD
There are no Graded races at Ascot today, but there are some mighty fine horses to talk about.
Let’s start in the opener. LORIKO is probably one of the better multiple-raced maidens in the country, and he did hold an entry for Cheltenham over the weekend (and for the Grade 2 Elite Hurdle at the start of the month), but Skelton pulled the plug. His third over two at the October meeting was good, and with his French background, he might be ground versatile.
KRIPTICJIM will be a tough opponent mind, and he is favourite based on his second to KINGSTON QUEEN. Nice race. He has form with IDAHO SUN, who leads the market for the two-mile introductory hurdle, which is the next race on the card. He is three from four, and he was sixth in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper, which does always turn into a fair piece of form. Some sharper jumping wouldn’t go amiss. But he is really quite exciting.
That being said, DOCTOR BLUE was second to FORTUNE DE MER in the Grade 2 Sharp Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham last time out on his season debut, and he was very close to winning. It was a clear career-best, as his bumper form wasn’t overly strong, and JACK HYDE has franked the form in handicap company subsequently. Good little match-up between the two here.
And then, one race later, LUCKY PLACE finally gets his chance over fences. It was the plan to run him over fences last season, but he was running so well over hurdles Hendo thought he’d let him see out the season. Now 6yo, and with extra experience on his side, he should prove to be a smart novice chaser this season. A exciting debut to watch today, especially against BEAT THE BAT, THOMAS MOR, and JET TO VEGAS, who are no mugs.
Of course, all the horses we’ve mentioned are short enough and as such no betting prospects really today but they’re ones to follow. Other horses in the handicaps that are interesting include NEON MOON in the 2m5f handicap chase, the aforementioned FORTUNE DE MER in the two-mile handicap hurdle (who we think might need to improve his handicap mark for the County Hurdle), and Paddy Brennan’s big hype bumper horse SAINT JEANNAIS.
RIDING THE WAVE
Finally, it’s been quite the season or Phillip Hobbs and Johnson White already. They seem to have a team of horses that is as good as they’ve had for a long time thanks to SOBER GLORY and STARZAND, and yesterday, the Racing Post got some insight on their top horses.
With a lack of other meaningful news to chuck forward (we can’t really talk about the Ashes in the newsletter, can we?), here’s our main takeaways, and we’ll start with these two hype novice hurdlers, SOBER GLORY is potentially the one that they like the most, and we’re pretty sure that when he won at Chepstow, they labelled him as “the best one we’ve had for a long time”. Woof.
They are thinking of spring festivals with him already, which probably means he will be tough to beat in the Listed Novice Hurdle at Sandown on December 6th. This is his likely target.
As for STARZAND, he’s the one with a fancy target before the new year is out. He has the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle in mind, but interestingly, they are going to run him once more before Newbury. With the race being roughly 40 days away, this would probably make sense, but they are taking a risk by doing so. Surely it would have been tempting to just head straight there.
Away from the novice hurdlers, LOWRY’S BAR will head to next week’s Coral Gold Cup. There are a few questions for him to answer, mostly about the extra two furlongs and the lack of race fitness. As is the nature of the race, this could turn into a bit of a ‘who stays best’ race. Could he be a horse for something like the Coral Trophy at Kempton in February? Bit more of a speedy three miles could suit him nicely, and they went for the race last year when he pulled up. Round two on the cards?
FRENCH SHIP is still in mighty form, and he’ll go to the 2m4f handicap hurdle at Newbury next week, which we think is the race GET A TONIC won in 2023 and IMPOSE TOI landed last year. 7lbs for his win at Cheltenham is steep enough, but his form is pretty standout.
Of the rest, IMPERIAL SAINT will head to the December Gold Cup, and he “might have just needed” his first run of the season. This has been the plan, but 143 is steep enough. SOMESPRING SPECIAL is a horse that will continue to win for the yard when she comes back from her winter break, BOBBY’S NELSON is a dark horse to follow after his Ffos Las run, and CALL ME LEGEND is going to run “a fair bit this season”.
RISK ON
12.40 EXPLODE
The champ AP, sorry, Faye Bramley, has had a very bullish start as a new trainer and ths lad is expected to go in today. We should have backed last night at 100/30 but we’re happy with 2/1. We imagine JP’s money is down on this lad. Standard single.
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