Equinties - the O'Brien show

Sponsored by UK Meds.

Gm Equinauts It's Derby week, LFG!

Remember to use the TOTE Fantasy to cage the chimp. Build your stable and add it to our League using code QHZ36G.

Now, let’s dive in. 

Headline roundup

One year todayIt's the one year anniversary of the racing legend Lester Piggot's death. 

The best filly in training?

Having been chinned at HQ (when she really should have won easily), TAHIYRA made no mistake at the Curragh this time as she took full control of the Irish 10000 Guineas under Chris Hayes. 

Despite looking good on the line, she did have to earn her dinner having been kept in on the rail earlier and had a bit of a small mountain to climb when the break came. Perhaps if there had been a better horse than DOWER HOUSE on her outside, you may have seen a different result but alas, there wasn't and she looked good.

Where next for the SIYOUNI filly? 

(p.s. shout out to SIYOUNI as the daddy, landing both the Irish 1000 & 2000 Guineas) #

Well, she is entered for the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot in three weeks, however, she isn’t 100% to turn up having run a couple of big races already this season. 

A freshen up for a month and then a stab at something like the Group 1 Pretty Polly over 1m2f wouldn’t be a bad shout because she wasn’t stopping at the line on Sunday, though Dermot Weld is planning for Ascot.

EYECATCHER OF THE RACE: Stablemate TARAWA had a worse route through the Guineas than TAHIYRA and was a staying-on fourth, so she should be an interesting one going forward. 

Day of the Bears

Ballydoyle’s bears shined on both sides of the Irish Sea on Saturday as PADDINGTON and LITTLE BIG BEAR scooped up their relevant races with ease. 

Starting with the latter, he capitalised on ROYAL SCOTSMAN’s massive disappointment to lead home a Ballydoyle 1-2 in the 2000 Guineas to continue his massive upward trajectory. 

This was fairly easy for the Madrid Handicap winner and on collateral form, he beat the English Guineas second, HI ROYAL, by three lengths so you have to rate the performance. 

It’s the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot next for him, a race he is 7/2 for, and it could be some clash with CHALDEAN (who saw his form take another boost with OVIEDO winning the Zetland yesterday). 

EYECATCHER OF THE RACE: Ballydoyle’s runner-up, CAIRO, bounced back to form to finish second to his stablemate and gave a good account of himself - a step up in trip with his pedigree wouldn’t be the worst shout in the world.

In investor terms, a bear is a pessimist but the weekend was only bullish for Ballydoyle as stablemate the other bear, LITTLE BIG BEAR, bounced back to form in the Sandy Lane at Haydock in a monstrous way.

Although there seemed to be a track bias at the Northern track, the three-year-old saw off BRADSELL with ease and looks to be set for a Commonwealth Cup tilt at Ascot. 

Of the rest

We best mention LUXEMBOURG who won the Tattersalls Gold Cup, though a few did underperform. Keep him sound and he could have a good season. 

But it is ABOVE THE CURVE’s win over in France that grabbed our attention. 

We backed her for the French 1000 Guineas when she was beaten. She had a tough route through the last day but her real self was on display this weekend to beat NASHWA who was way too short a price.

Racing manager to Joseph O’Brien, Kevin Blake, said on the recent Betfair Weighed In Podcast that it will take a very good filly to beat her this season so she should be taken seriously on her next start. 

NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

Two nice little races for Young Blood at Leicester and a couple of horses to follow from the Yearling sales.

13.55 Leicester

OCEAN RUNNER is by BLUE POINT, he was unsold as a yearling for 70k but made up into a 625,000gns Breezer, joint top lot at the Craven Breeze Up Sale. This lad was prepped at Norman Williamson’s (ex jump jock) who also prepped NATIVE TRAIL a few years back. O/o a Gr3 winning mare. OCEAN RUNNER was 4th on debut at Ascot, backed into odds on, they must think a bit of him. 

BONELESS is by KODIASC and o/o a SHOWCASING mare who was unraced but has produced stakes placed filly American Lady. His granddam produced LOVELACE who won a Gr2 in Germany. He looks fast and is one to note. 

MATLOOB is by DARK ANGEL who has a had a typically good season with his juveniles. He cost 120,000gns as a yearling and is o/o SHANG SHANG SHANG who won the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. This is her first foal, and looks the part on paper. 

KINGSWOOD FLYER is by SIOUX NATION, he is a homebred colt trained by (s)Haggas. This lads dam has already produced handy Ventura Lightning who won twice as a 2yo and the stakes placed GARROGORILLE. One to watch on debut. HOW’S THE GUVNOR - By FSS Calyx, he was a 26k foal, 42k yearling and a 90k breezer, he has kept everyone happy. Plus his mum was brought for 3k. Back family is from America and Japan.ZABRISKIE POINT - By Blue Point who has helped upgrade this family. He does have a nice page, bred by Meon Valley Stud, but it is quite far back. Maybe watch for any market moves.

Verdict: Appleby has been blowing a little cold recently, but they must think a bit of OCEAN RUNNER and that's not forgetting the Godolphin colt was backed into odds on when he ran at Ascot. MATLOOB could offer the second choice each way hedge. BONELESS is feared on debut. The market could have this right with the top 3.

14.30 Leicester

IMPRESSIVE ACT by Dubawi o/o DABYAH who was Gr1 placed at 2. The mare was a very good racehorse but is struggling to produce a winner as she has 2 foals of racing age and both haven’t reached the racecourse yet. That’s not to say she won’t ever produce a winner of course and this lad is a nice individual who could be her first, he cost 650,000 as a yearling. Ran well for a long way on debut. 

FUSTERLANDIA by MEHMAS o/o an EXCEED AND EXCEL mare who was a winner at 3, she hasn’t produced a winner from her first three foals who are all of racing age but this lad looks a really nice individual who will stop that trend. Cost 135,000gns.

GOLDEN MIND is by GALILEO GOLD, half brother to Gr1 winning sprinter PERFECT POWER, cost 150,000gbs as a yearling. Broke poorly on debut, ran ok and finished in a bunched finish.

SALSA DANCER is ADVERTISE o/o a DALAKHANI mare, a half brother to SANITISE who we had a nice punt on back in 2021 on his second start at Windsor. May foal, homebred. 

CONDE is by first season sire PHOENIX OF SPAIN, first foal o/o a dam who won at 2. Dam is a half sister to a filly who was placed in the Marygate Stakes so a bit of precocity in the family. 

Verdict: Appleby wouldn’t send IMPRESSIVE ACT to the York Dante meeting on debut if he wasn’t showing much at home, he ran well there and it would be disappointing if he can’t build on that.  

Sales tracker

The team behind BGP Capital made reams of notes on the best looking and best bred yearlings and now it's time to track how they get on.

19.10 SWEET RUN - by CAMACHO. This girl carries some weight dam side and subsequently went for a sh*t load for a CAMACHO (105k). Nice big butt as you can see below. Might be up against it today with the boys in blue going looking on for a treble but this girl should be followed.

Today's best stats

Highlighting trainer targets, trends and horses for courses. 

15.30 PROPHETS DREAM - was a big gamble for us last time. Todd has a 50% sr in these types of 3yo races at track. Hiked 11lbs in weights but could still be 'well in'.

16.10 LITTLE BOY BLUE - drifting but 1313111 is his course form. Won this race last year albeit off a considerably shorter price.

17.05 GALLIMIMUS - out again today after landing the W only yesterday as a typical Boughey handicap plot. Boughey has a near 1 in 3 strike rate when running them again so quickly.

18.10 ELKIL - runs for Guest who is 5 from 10 in these types of races at track.

These stats should be used as an aid to help make better betting decisions and do not constitute financial advice. Use to help build you chimp acca's. 

Risk on

5 meetings today is a bit much and there are no stand out bets.

That said, we landed the gamble on PROPHETS DREAM (see stats) and we think he can follow up today. Running off 81 today, he's breezed past ROCKIT TOMMY in work who is rated 83. Half bet on him is the only play.

There are some horses we've been waiting for entered this week.

Staking and banking

You need to manage risk by limiting bet size to a fixed % of your bank. The reality is, if you have an edge that'll prove profitable over say, 100 trades, but there will be times when you have a string of losses - that could be 10 losing bets in a row, it happens. 

To avoid blowing the account, managing risk to a fixed, low percentage is the only way to stay in the game.

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever. 

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

Create your stable and use code QHZ36G to join the BGP league here: