Equinties - Oaks Friday

Gm Equinauts

When people think of the Oaks, they think of ENABLE.

What a special Queen she was. Allowed to stay in training by Khalid Abdullah, we had the privilege to watch her pick up easy Group 1’s all the way up to the ripe age of 6…unheard of for a flat champion.

Today we celebrate the past great champion Queens of the track, and the future ones.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

 KING GEORGE TO SAVOUR?

Steering away from the Flat action momentarily, Martin Brassil let on a very interesting piece of information on Wednesday when speaking to Racing TV following the win of THE FLYING SPUR at Wexford.

In an interview with Kevin O’Ryan, the Irish trainer mapped out how next season could look for FASTORSLOW, his two-time Punchestown Gold Cup-winning star.

As expected, the John Durkan was mentioned as his starting point, but Brassil mentioned the King George at Kempton as a potential mid-season target which should be music to any racing fan’s ears.

Although he disappointed on his last start at Auteuil, one can imagine that IL EST FRANCAIS will be aimed towards the race having won the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase in devastating fashion last year.

Add in the likes of GAELIC WARRIOR, who could be purpose built for the King George (three miles, flat track, right-handed), HEWICK, and even GERRI COLOMBE and we could have a King George for the ages.

Of course, a lot of water has to pass under the bridge for this to happen, but we can only dream, right?

EPSOM GROUND CONDITIONS

Ahead of Oaks Day at Epsom today, one of the more important things to highlight is the ground conditions as it’s been a bit unsettled over the last few days.

At 18.30 last night, Clerk of the Course Andrew Cooper confirmed that only 2mm had hit the track despite plenty of forecasts suggesting much worse. Therefore, the ground was still good to soft as play closed last night, though what the weather does today is still up in the air.

Some forecasts predicted rain to start falling at 15.00 today, though the Met Office have forecasted no rain but grey clouds. One thing is for sure, and that’s the fact that if any rain does fall in the hour leading up to the Oaks, it won’t have enough time to properly get into the ground, so it’ll most likely just remain on top.

Therefore, if you are looking over the cards today, good to soft (and potentially even a bit quicker if the rain holds off and the wind picks up) is what you should have in mind. That’s what we’ll have in mind anyway which is pretty rubbish as anything can win on good ground.

As a wise man once said '- good ground and salt will kill a punter.

BIG RACE PREVIEWS

14.00 WOODCOTE STAKES 

The opening race of the Epsom Derby meeting and if you dig deep enough into its recent history, you’ll find one trainer in particular loves to target this race.

Richard Hannon has won this race in ‘17, ‘16 and ‘14 and has been placed in it several times most recently. He wants this race.

Normally he sends colts but this year he’s sending filly NEW CHAPTER. Fillies don’t have the best record in the race, the last to win it was OSCULA ‘21 but she was very hardy. It takes a good girl to beat the boys.

Well, we might be looking at a good filly here for on debut she bumped into what is likely a Royal Ascot favourite in PINATUBO’s half sister MOUNTAIN BREEZE. That should prove good form.

Let’s look who she has to beat.

MEGALITHIC reps Beckett. He’s by Coolmore stallion WOOTTON BASSETT, out of WONDERFULLY who has produced a Listed winner called WONDERFUL TIMES. He’s bred well and entitled to come on for his debut but, all honesty, he looked a boat. He was easily beaten by a mad horse of Eve’s who carried a huge weight. Not the best form…we think!

Kevin Ryan would have been praying for the rain to stay away for END OF STORY. He just about will get this ground, he’s a fast ground horse. If you like this lad today, look out for GEORGECANDOIT who runs in the 14.15. He’s bred to be sharp but lacks the quality of others.

TEEJ A last seen winning in York ahs had two runs now and will have to really improve to win.

TANAGER reps Eve who won this race last year with BOBSLEIGH. She had a better hand last year with BOBSLEIGH, TANAGAER is a nice horse but will likely bump into a few if they’re any good. That said, Eve is one of the best with 2yo’s!

ASSERTIVELY was expected to follow up last time. The better ground will be in his favour, probably should be closer to TEEJ A in the betting making him good value.

The rest shouldn’t be able to win.

Verdict: Normally, we’re almost always with boys against the girls but this year we think we’re looking at quite a nice filly for Hannon against a field of boys who are’t much cop. NEW CHARTER to win for the girls on a day for the girls.

15.10 GROUP 1 CORONATION CUP

Five runners. £252,360 to the winner. First Group 1 of the day. What a corker the Coronation Cup promises to be this year, and EMILY UPJOHN is back to defend her title. No one in the last 10 years has done back to back Coronation Cup’s. PYLEDRIVER is the last horse who tried to do it but got beat by HUKUM.

She had just three races last year and she won this race fto, but she is now five and connections targeted the Sheema Classic (March 30th) with her though she could only manage fifth. She was simply sublime last year, but she’s had that different prep this year which means she’s had 62 days to come back over to the UK and either remain at race fitness or build herself back up. Therefore, there is a small question mark over her.

FEED THE FLAME is the horse coming for money…

His big win of last year came in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris where he beat ADELAIDE RIVER (2nd to AUGUSTE RODIN in the Irish Derby) and SOUL SISTER (last year’s Epsom Oaks winner). He was also fourth to ACE IMPACT and BIG ROCK in the Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club, form that looks good considering one subsequently won an Arc and the other bolted up in the QEII.

A lot are saying that EMILY UPJOHN is clear on form, but when you look into it, there really isn’t much between them and FEED THE FLAME has race fitness on his side.

Speaking of AUGUSTE RODIN form, LUXEMBOURG was probably a touch unlucky last year as he ran into his stablemate in the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes. However, he is 0-2 over 1m4f having finished eight lengths behind HUKUM in the King George and seven lengths back in the 2022 Arc. He has something to prove in that department.

HAMISH is the horse for EW money as he was available at 25/1 when markets first opened up, but he can now be backed at 15/2 or shorter. Epsom missed a few big showers yesterday as 2mm hit the track. This stat doesn’t help the chances of HAMISH as he does like soft ground, but the good to soft description should be fine for him. When he gets his ground, he doesn’t know how to run a bad race, and Maureen Haggas loves him to bits. This is a step up in class and he’ll have to up his game even more.

TIME LOCK completes the field having been supplemented for this at the back end of last week. Juddmonte and the Charltons have obviously done this for a reason (maybe Group 1 black type on the page?) but she is behind on all known form. She did beat the 2023 Musidora winner RUNNING LION comfortably last season, so that would offer some hope.

Verdict: we like FEED THE FLAME but would like a new going update? He ran well in the Arc last year and he’s always looked like a horse that has needed time to develop. His run last time out in the Prix Ganay was class, just had too much to do. Any juice in the ground will help him and a be a hindrance to the fave.

16.30 THE OAKS

Beckett is playing Aidan O’Brien here. He has 4 runners and we’re quite sure there will be firm tactics in place. We imagine they’ll want to make it a stamina test, try to make all and play catch me if you can.

YLANG YLANG by Frankel, cost 1.5millie as a yearling. Gr1 Fillies Mile winner as a 2yo, ran very well in the 1000 Guineas to be 5th and shaped as if going up in trip would be a positive. Obvious big player

EZELIYA by Dubawi won a very solid looking Salsabil Stakes, Gr3. The form looks solid, she should improve as that was her seasonal debut (beat a couple of race fit opposition) and she comes from a family who stay very well. Trainer won this race 43 years ago.

RUBIES ARE RED finished behind YOU GOT TO ME, and just in front of TREASURE, in the Lingfield Oaks Trial. It was a slightly odd race as YGTM went steaming off in front and set it up for a horse to mow her down when she got tired which was Rubies Are Red. She’ll stay, she’s got a bit of class, she’s a lightly raced filly by Galileo (full sis is Arc and Breeders Cup hero Found).

YOU GOT TO ME just held on lto, she won’t be able to get away with the same style of racing today but she clearly stays and is by a stallion who sired Oaks winner Enable.

FOREST FAIRY is lightly raced and one of 3 for the Ralph Beckett yard. She’s by young Stallion WALDGEIST who was best over a mile and a half. She won the Cheshire Oaks beating the re-opposing SEAWARD. Inexperience is a slight concern.

SECRET SATIRE won the Musidora at York which is historically the best prep race, the second did the form no harm winning a listed race lto. There is however a question mark over the depth of the race and an extra 2 furlongs isn’t certain to suit this daughter of sprinter Advertise, albeit her dam did place in the Cheshire Oaks over 1m3f.

DANCE SEQUENCE for team Godolphin will break from stall 2 which isn’t ideal. This race has eluded Charlie Appleby so far and Dance Sequence doesn’t look like she’s going to help his quest on form shown so far. Stamina shouldn’t be an issue and a little bit of give in the ground will be more to her liking. Each way chance at best.

TREASURE lines up for The King & The Queen, trained by Ralph Beckett who clearly has a good gage on the field having won two Oaks Trials. Let’s face it she wouldn’t be declared if she wasn’t going very well at home. Taken on trust that she’s good enough, stamina is a worry and she’s a big filly who got in a muddle at Lingfield which is the most similiar track to Epsom.

CAUGHT U LOOKING will break from arguably the worst draw, she ran very well on her last start behind EZELIYA and if it wasn’t for the off putting draw she’d be a lively outsider. She’s a nice filly who deserves to line up but might find this a step too far.

MAKING DREAMS was kept busy as a 2yo running 10 times, she’s won on heavy and the trip isn’t a problem, she won a Gr3 but ran poorly lto in a Group 2. A group 1 of this class will test her.

WAR CHIMES has been beaten on both her starts this year in Gr3 and Gr2 company. Obviously needs to improve.

Verdict: Plenty of depth to this race which although YLANG YLANG looks a very worthy favourite and obvious big player her price is very short - the big hitters are at it. We think it’s worth playing two each way EZELIYA because trip and course shouldn’t be a problem and you’ve got to sit up when a regally bred Aga Khan horse comes over from the Dermot Weld stable. The other is SEAWARD who is a massive price considering she was only just beaten by Forest Fairy last time out, that run will bring her on, the track at Epsom will suit her better than the tight turns of Chester and the form looks solid.

17.10 SURREY STAKES 

Ralph Beckett has the hot favourite here, and he could already be celebrating an Oaks win by this time. ZOUM ZOUM had the better of Balmacara when winning a smart novice in November, Kikkuli was second and Economics was 4th!

The Mariscotti’s have BALMACARA with Eve and Charlie Bishop in the irons. Beaten by Beckett as mentioned, when 3rd to him on debut at Newmarket but ZOUM ZOUM had had a run. In race comments ‘ran green’ suggested that it wasn’t a fair contest and maybe redemption day is in the cards.

PANDORA’S GIFT isnt running today which is a shame as we really liked her.

Wathnan Racing could do with winning a few races with the amount of money they’ve put it. NATIVE AMERICAN is interesting dropping back to 7f and can handle any cut in the ground. Down the field in the Fielden Stakes this year but in fairness he had a rubbish stall position and didn’t stay the 1m1f.

EVADE and NATIVE AMERICAN ran in the Lagadere, but this lad hasn’t ran since. Switched from Fabre to Watson, he won’t mind the ground but form needs to improve. Very well bred and costs connections €300k at the yearling sales.

Nick Bradley and Grant Tuer have BELLARCHI who has 19 runs to her name, yielding 5 wins. She had a nice break over Christmas, from October to April but she’s been on the go a lot for a 3yo filly. Too exposed to recommend, but nice day out for the owners.

James Fanshawe saddles HERITAGE HOUSE for the Gredleys and the partnership will be in action in the Derby. This looks tough for the filly who has won once in nine starts.

Verdict: Eve’s has progressed we know that but is short now in the betting at fave making him a no bet and at the prices it’s tempting to have a swing with NATIVE AMERICAN now dropped in trip. A non-betting race for us.

RISK ON

Yesterday’s only bet MILTIADES sadly broke down yesterday. He broke down on both front legs, an area where he has had problems before, and was quickly seen to on course where his owners decided they will look after him. It’s quite certain he won’t race again, more, he’s lucky to be alive.

To those few reading this who decided to post abuse to our X account @equinties, please stop betting horse racing. The distinct lack of empathy for one is disturbing but the fact you you’ve shown how emotional you get from gambling is embarrassing.

Norm has or two plays away from Epsom and will be posted on X @NormDuncsBGP. We’ll stick with the famous Surrey track and play:

14.00 NEW CHARTER

For the above reasons in the preview.

15.45 LIBERTY LANE

Small ew on what could be a Group horse in a handicap.

MOUNT TEIDE for Balding at Chepstow is todays leverage horse, add to another for near 1x leverage.