Equinties - the Oaks

Gm Equinauts

New layout, who dis?

We’re vain but honestly, we did NOT miss yesterday’s newsletter just to work on a new template. We actually had severe technical problems but thought we’d give the whole thing a little makeover while we fixed it.

We’re back for the girls though. It’s Oaks day so let’s dive tf in!

MERCH

We’ve got merch coming and yes, Finndog themed tee’s will be available …and limited edition.

Want a ‘gm’ cap? Read below.

BGP FANTASY LEAGUE COMP

We’ve been hyping up the TOTE’s new Fantasy game since we found it. Why? Simply because there is nothing else out there now which can help people cage the betting chimp while maintaining an emotional interest in the big races of the day.

People bet way too much and the Fantasy allows you to get limited risk on, fill your brain up with the dope it craves and still be in the mix for a big win.

Play with us today and if we hit 400 stables, top of the BGP private league get’s a new ‘GM’ cap.

BIG RACE PREVIEW

15.15 Coronation Cup

It’s a pretty sad state of affairs that only 5 horses go to post. The winner bags £241,000, second place £91,000 and 3rd place £45,000. If this race was in Australia you could put another zero on the prize money (they have a sprint worth $20 million!). This is one of the premier middle distance races in our calendar, it’s a shame we can’t put on more inspiring prize money. 1 representative from Ireland, 1 from Germany and 3 from England. Anyhow, let’s find the winner…

WESTOVER ... Watch the Derby again. We have always maintained WESTOVER probably ‘would’ have been second and a lot closer to DESERT CROWN, if not winning it with a clear route. DC has since ran a fine race to HUKUM who won this last year. WESTOVER was second in the Sheema Classic in Dubai picking a million pounds in prize money to EQUINOX who looked a monster!

EMILY UPJOHN has been off for 230 days and does run keen in her races, usually wearing a hood. She stays the 1m4f as she showed in the Oaks last year but against the colts she needs to settle better. Stall 1 she might get pushed back, Frankie would want some pace.

HURRICANE LANE and POINT LONSDALE are both by sons of GALILEO in FRANKEL and AUSTRALIA. HURRICANE LANE is looking a little exposed but his recent win will give him bags of confidence. POINT LONSDALE is looking like he is coming back to his best, and in reality has only ran one bad race at Newmarket in the Guineas. A mile and half will be right up his street.

TUNNES rated 118, equal to HURRICANE LANE and 1lbs behind WESTOVER. The German Raider will have his supporters and rightly so. Was beaten by a very good horse lto but his win in Munich when he won by 10 lengths is top quality. Will he like the ground?

Verdict: WESTOVER was unlucky in the Derby last year, and had an unsettled prep in Dubai. He is the highest rated and this has been the plan all along.

16.30 The Oaks

One of the oldest Classic races, the Oaks is a tough mile and a half test over the undulating Epsom downs for the best 3yo fillies in the world.

The market is headed by none other than Coolmore hot pot, SAVETHELASTDANCE at even money who has seen sustained support since her Chester romp.

You can't blame the bookies for running scared, Aiden O'Brien has won the Oaks six times in the last ten years tbf but even money is so short for a race of this nature (the average price of AOB's Oaks winners is around 5/1, the anomaly being QUALIFY who won the 2014 renewal at 50's when taking advantage of her wandering stable mate TOGETHER FOREVER nearly wiping out the entire field).

Is the race as easy as the pricing suggests? Well next in the market is the FRANKEL filly SOUL SISTER who, like SAVETHELASTDANCE, has been gambled for this race since her total demolition job at York a couple of weeks ago.

They both might have hacked up in their respective races, but that's where the similarities stop. SAVETHELASTDANCE beat absolutely no one, whereas SOUL SISTER f*cking trounced some proper, proper fillies lto - NOVAKAI is good, INFINITE COSMOS had Stoutey purring before that and SEA OF ROSES is one of Balding's favourite girls. That's the best form on offer.

Both pricing and ratings suggest the others can't get into this and when you have two fillies by GALILEO and FRANKEL doing what they did last time out, you need to have a good imagination to believe it won't be a two horse race.

Verdict: Everything says AOB bags another Oaks but SOUL SISTER's form line simply cannot be ignored. Gosden's is the pick. a rpr of 42 on her first start, she ran to 115 lto - fillies can do funny things after spring. There will be one hitting the frame at a big price. MAMAN JOON could be the ew play - Hannon/Amo team did it before with MOJO STAR.

17.10 Surrey Stakes

A Listed race for boys and girls, the likes of SPACE BLUES have won this in the past.

Balding's HOLGUIN heads the market this time and is by new super sire HAVANA GREY. He's bumped into one in his last 3 races and has gone up 10lbs without winning once, his last race brings the best form to this party where he just got chinned by Group 1 winner ANGEL BLEU.

With HOLGUIN rock steady at 5/4, 7/2 is the next price in the market where Amo are repped by OLIVIA MARALDA. She was last seen in the 1000 Guineas which was dominated by MAWJ and TAHIYRA, the rest finished bunched and not up to the standard. The question is, is that bunched finish up to winning this class 1? Not sure...

Archie Watson and Hollie Doyle teamed up to win this race in '21 on MEHMENTO. They go again this year to recapture the title with the aptly named HE'S A MONSTER. He's a NO NAY NEVER who has won 3 from his 4 races and must be feared as the unexposed horse in the race.

The field, including Eve's STREETS OF GOLD, SECRET ANGELand DANDY ALYS are all fairly exposed now and might have too much to find.

Verdict: HOLGUIN sets the standard here and is the likely winner with Oisin Murphy in the plate.

NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

14.00 Woodcote Stakes

Won before by the likes of Pinatubo, this race is hard and fast.

PHOENIX OF SPAIN has had 3 winners so far as a stallion, a slow start was expected with him, and HAATEM is the best of them so far. He ran on eyecatchingly (is that a word?) at Goodwood on debut and then stepped up that effort second time out in tremendous fashion at Bath where he won by 6 lengths.

Michael Owen said he was saving the name for a good one so BALON D’OR must have been showing plenty at home. His debut was rather workmanlike and then the son of Kodiac ran well on his second start at Chester but was drawn too wide to do himself justice.

THE CAMDEN COLT is the mount of Ryan Moore for the Hannon team. He was pitched in to a Chester May meeting maiden on debut and ran well to be third being beaten by more experienced rivals the winner has since been third in the National Stakes. THE CAMDEN COLT then improved to win a competitive maiden at Haydock. Moore can be expected! Get it?

BOBSLEIGH, who we backed on debut, was a taking debut winner for Eve Johnson Houghton whose runners normally improve a lot from their debuts. By ELZAAM he looked the winner a long way out. His dam won 5 times and this is her first foal, he only cost 17,000 as a yearling, he’ll be repaying his lucky owners handsomely.

VALOUR AND SWAGGER cost £80,000 and won well on debut, Burke was bullish before he ran and doesn’t often get it too far wrong. He then went on to run second at Ascot giving the field 3lbs, OCEAN RUNNER didn’t do the form many favours the other day but I think it’s still strong, Ascot maidens usually are.

Verdict: A lot in here are improving and similarly rated. BALON D’OR just gets the nod as his debut has worked out reasonably well and he ran well at Chester from a poor draw.

TODAYS RACING

RISK ON

We’ll play a small acca or lucky 15 on the above four preview horses but the main interests are a couple of shorties:

19.17 PERFUSE

This lad was a big gamble lto and he did it very well given the conditions. He’ll be even better on fast today and should win easily. Full bet or half stakes and lev up with Burkes in the 13.40. BGP Capital on that lev’d up double at 2.8/1.

Why Burkes and worried about Faheys? Burkes was on the wrong side of the track at York and the race was deep on pedigree (we found the winner in Young Blood). Today is calmer waters and this thing is a little rocket and shouldn’t be beat.

20.15 BRAVURA

SMP, the wily fox, is at it again stepping this lad up 4f in trip. He’s a half brother to MIDAS TOUCH who was second in the St Leger (1m6) and Great Voltiguer (1m4), CORONET who was a Gr1 winner over 1m4f and STREETCAR TO STARS who was Gr3 placed over 1m4f.

We’ve backed every single one of his plots recently so why stop now?