Equinties - not playing ball

Gm Equinauts

Well, the horses are ready and set to run,

all they need to do now is show us what we think they can do.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

NOT PLAYING BALL

On Monday, Aidan O’Brien pleaded with John Gosden to run OMBUDSMAN in the Irish Champion Stakes. “I really hope he will come over” was the quote from the Ballydoyle man, as he is set to run DELACOIX in the big Leopardstown showpiece later this month.

If the two clashed, it would be a great third instalment of OMBUDSMAN vs DELACOIX. The latter took leg one in the Coral-Eclipse, while the former struck back in the memorable Juddmonte International.

Unfortunately, we will not get to see these two take each other on in Ireland, as John Gosden ruled his Godolphin star out of the Irish Champion Stakes in quite an ironic way. Why is it ironic? Well, team tactics have been a big feature of DELACOIX vs OMBUDSMAN this season.

In the Eclipse, Gosden complained that the pace was not even, and that’s why DELACROIX won. In the Juddmonte, BIRR CASTLE went off and set a crazy pace, which allowed OMBUDSMAN to pick up the pieces. And now, ahead of the Irish Champions Stakes, Gosden doesn’t think it would be right for the horse to run against “multiple entries from one stable on a track with a short straight”.

The full quote reads: “Ombudsman has been in full training since February and has raced in May, June, July and August. In June, at Royal Ascot, he showed extraordinary acceleration to win easily off a very fast pace. At York, in the Juddmonte International, the pacemaker was completely ignored and a steady pace was set by the Japanese jockey.

"Once again, Ombudsman displayed a phenomenal turn of foot in the last furlong to win by three and half lengths. He will now be freshened up for an autumn campaign targeting the Champion Stakes at Ascot, the Breeders’ Cup and the Japan Cup.

“The Irish Champion Stakes is a race that our stable has won four times. Obviously, it would not be in the best interests of Ombudsman to race in September nor would the horse appreciate running against multiple entries from one stable on a track with a short straight.”

That is a bit bolshy from Johnny G. But does he have a point?

From the O’Brien yard, one can imagine a combination of CONTINUOUS, SERENGETI, and MOUNT KILIMANJARO could be used as “pacemakers”, or at least as blockers for OMBUDSMAN.

However, unlike LOS ANGELES (Prince Of Wales’s), DELACOIX is a bit of a hold-up horse, so it’s hard to imagine him sitting on the hindquarters of a “pacemaker” and “slingshotting” off a stablemate to victory.

In two starts this season, OMBUDSMAN has been positioned closer to the pace than DELACOIX, and his Coral-Eclipse run saw him pretty much pester SOSIE for the lead. So, a pacemaker would probably help him, unless Ballydoyle put a few horses in the race to do the opposite and slow the contest right down?

Either way, using the “running against multiple entries from one stable” excuse does look a bit thin, especially due to the fact that they could just enter a pacemaker themselves.

Yes, we can see why Gosden has chosen the route of Champions Day, Breeders’ Cup, and Japan Cup. The opposition is likely to be easier, and he gets to return to Ascot as a fresh horse for the Champions Stakes.

The break between the Juddmonte International and Champion Stakes would mean he gets a 59-day rest, which is enough to allow him to go to the Breeders’ Cup two weeks later, so yes, we can see your reasoning, Mr. Gosden.

But still, this late-Autumn campaign won’t be easy. Champions Day is known to throw up wild results, and in the Champions Stakes, he will meet a cherry-ripe ANMAAT, as well as (hopefully) CALANDAGAN. He’d also be doing that on his first run for 59 days (which has both positives and negatives attached to it) and on potentially slow ground, which is no certainty as he’s only raced on it once.

Then he has the Breeders’ Cup, which will be a tight-turning track with short straights. If he’s worried about Leopardstown, just wait for Del Mar, John! And then there’s the Japan Cup, which is 29 days after the Breeders’ Cup. To rest after America, then travel, acclimatise, prep, and race in 29 days is tight enough, but he could do it.

Honestly, we think he might just miss one of the three engagements, and our money would be on the Breeders’ Cup if he has a hard race at Ascot.
But anyway, OMBUDSMAN is not going to Ireland, and that is a bit of a shame.

MERCH-OUT

The next month will be an onslaught of Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe news. It is one of the best races of the whole season, so it’s very much allowed to take centre stage in our newsletter and in the general news feeds.

Yesterday, it was confirmed that MERCHANT will miss the Longchamp feature and the rest of the season due to a setback, and it’s fair to say that William Haggas and Highclere Racing are fairly devastated.

His Group 3 Gordon Stakes form got a boost on the weekend thanks to WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE, and even though he probably needs to improve to win an Arc, the vibes around the camp about this horse were immaculate. After yesterday's news, they were the opposite of that.

Harry Herbert, of Highclere Racing, said: "It’s particularly dreadful knowing how hard it is to get horses as good as this. I’ve had horses with William for probably more than 35 years and I haven’t had a horse who he’s been more excited about.

"William was devastated yesterday when an injury became apparent and that was it for this year. We’ll have to see how we go as far as next year is concerned.

"They’re so hard to find and when you’re dealt a wonderful card, to have a top-class middle-distance colt, then it’s devastating when something goes wrong when otherwise we might have seen him running in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. William described the yard yesterday as funereal in its silence, nobody was speaking."

There’s not much to add to this, other than to offer our thoughts to all connections. It’s a proper tough situation. Maybe the thing to learn from this is just how much everyone rates the horse? When he comes back next season, assuming he’s all sound, it would be brave to take him on when he eventually tackles those Group 1s.

LITMUS TEST

Whichever way you look at it, the VENETIAN SUN x ROYAL FIXATION formline of the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes is a great race. The winner has won the Group 1 Prix Morny since, and the second has won the Group 2 Lowther Stakes subsequently.

Two special fillies.

In the best interests of both sets of connections, they avoided each other after Newmarket, and they are set to do the same on their next runs.

For ROYAL FIXATION, the Group 1 Cheveley Park is her next port of call, and it seems like VENETIAN SUN will step up in trip to seven furlongs for the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes.

Sean Graham, racing manager to owners Tony Bloom and Ian McAleavy, said: "Karl was thinking that we might give her a break after Ascot to bring her back for the Moyglare. However, when she got back from Ascot, she only lost four kilos and was absolutely bouncing. That's why we decided to go to Newmarket and that form worked out really well with the runner-up Royal Fixation winning the Lowther.

"Karl explained that if we waited for the Moyglare and something happened in the meantime, that would be her chance of running in a Group 1 this year gone, so we might as well have gone for the Morny as she was in such good form. Tony and Ian are great sportsmen and like to run their horses when they're right.

"We wouldn't shy away from a challenge against Aidan's fillies and it'll also tell us where we are with regards to next year. If Clifford Lee gets off her afterwards and doesn't think she stays then it's probably a sprinting campaign, but if he's fully convinced she enjoys the trip then we can aim for the 1,000 Guineas.”

Trying seven furlongs with her is a great decision, even if they don’t win at the Curragh.
Burke has said for a while that she COULD be a Guineas filly, but there are only two ways they’d be able to find out. They either keep her to six this season and go straight up to eight furlongs next year, or they try seven this year and plan from there.

In trying seven this year, you can find out nice and early if she stays. If she does, that’s fantastic, and it’s full steam ahead to the Guineas.

If she doesn’t, that’s fine, and you can go on the Commonwealth Cup pathway. Job done.

As for ROYAL FIXATION, she already looks home and hosed in the Cheveley Park! Good Lord we’re just praying for some sunshine ahead of the race. That is THE only thing that can beat her.

RISK ON

The drift stunk and told on VICTOR CEE yesterday. Today we’re only playing one single as we save ammo for the remainder of the week.

15.55 SAPPHIRE PRINCESS

She’s clearly been massively disappointing but this is a weak maiden and she looks the best in this race. The step up to 7 will suit, she’ll be at a mile soon. 2/1 could look a gift post-race.

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