Equinties - no real impact

Author

BGP Capital
August 16, 2023

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

We made it pretty clear yesterday what we thought of Rouget’s decision to run ACE IMPACT in that joke of a race instead of facing proper rivals over here.

And that’s only because we love him. As racing fans we want to see how good he is against our top Group 1 racers… not trotting past ‘nearly’ horses in a ‘nearly’ Group 1 but actually just a Group 2.

We wouldnt be smashing into him for the Arc either. The Arc is a real stamina test. The revs are high for a long, long time and only those with real grit and endurance last it out… ACE IMPACT looks all speed.

Anyway, lets dive in.

BGP FANTASY LEAGUE COMP

We’ve been hyping up the TOTE’s new Fantasy game since we found it. Why? Simply because there is nothing else out there now which can help people cage the betting chimp while maintaining an emotional interest in the big races of the day.

People bet way too much and the Fantasy allows you to get limited risk on, fill your brain up with the dope it craves and still be in the mix for a big win.

If we hit 100 stables today, top of the BGP private league comes golfing with BGP Capital - we’ll run the comp until someone wins!

Tote

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

ROUGET REWARDED 

ACE IMPACT kept his unbeaten race record intact thanks to a laughable race that, if Rouget was honest about, should never have seen his star run in for it being not a true test of a champ.

It was a slightly workmanlike victory yesterday at Deauville but his trainer Jean-Claude Rouget was delighted and on reflection, the horse idled in front a little and won ‘cosily’ in the end.

ACE IMPACT ran the last 3 furlongs at Chantilly in the Prix du Jockey Club in a time of 34.01 seconds and yesterday (at Deauville) he ran the last three furlongs in a time of 34.69. Between the 3f pole and the 2f pole, he notched a rapid 10.92 seconds (Usain Bolt holds the record for the 200m with a time of 19.19).

He holds an entry in the Arc de Triomphe and with that being the holy grail of European racing I’m sure connections will have one eye on that coveted prize.

However one would imagine that his next target will be the Irish Champion Stakes (Sept 9th) in 24 days’ time and then the Arc (Oct 1st) 21 days after that. The British Champion Stakes (Oct 21st) is 20 days after the Arc which might be a bit tight depending on how hard his races are leading up to that. You’d imagine the Breeders Cup Turf on November 4th at Santa Anita will also be under consideration. The world is his oyster, he’s come a long way since his debut.

Cagnes-sur-Mer : Ace Impact en roue libre

{L'essentiel}

Quick note on AL RIFFA who ran really well, he’s definitely trained on, this was a much-improved run from his seasonal return. The Gr1 British Champion Stakes at Ascot could be his target with connections hoping they don’t bump into Ace Impact there as well.

BIG THREAT FROM BIG OWNER

Prominent National Hunt owner Carl Hinchy, who landed Grade 1 success with RIDERS OF THE STORM in the 2020 Ascot Chase, has threatened to walk away from the sport due to affordability checks.

Known for his purple silks with a white cap, Hinchy enjoyed success on Welsh Grand National day with FUGITIF – worth £18,000 to the winner - as well as victory in the Grade 2 Old Roan Chase with Riders On the Storm, a race worth just over £45,000 to the winner.

However, restrictions with affordability checks has caused Hinchy to make a sizeable net loss through owners fees, as he explained: "I've owned horses for 15-20 years and I've always been able to have bets on them, with varying success. I've always taken the view we want to have a real good bet when we've lined a horse up for a race, and not being able to do that, waters down your desire to be involved in racing at all. You could win your season's training fees in October and then you're having a bit of fun”.

"Last season my total fees were £121,500. My share of prize money was £94,000. I won the Old Roan Chase. I won a big race on Welsh National day and Fugitif came second three times at Cheltenham – including at the festival. So I'm doing well, but I'm still losing. And that's before you buy a horse for £60,000 who it turns out isn't any good, so you sell it for £20,000. That's another £40,000 gone."

Carl’s cost cutting has been in plain sight through his attempt to syndicate some of his horses but it seems like he’s getting to the proverbial final straw.

The sport needs owners like Carl in the game. Its a sorry state of affairs, something that the BHA will HAVE to make an an attempt to create discourse with the government and other bodies regulating the sport and betting markets.

The BHA are under a lot of pressure already from big personalities like Matt Chapman who seems to be a big odds with them (excuse the pun) for their recent display of ridiculous decision making on the whip and saunas.

If the BHA don’t step up soon in all these matters, we can see big problems on the horizon for them, borne from the very inside of their own sport.

Might we even see a governing body created through stress, representing the trainers, owners and jockeys to manage and perhaps one day takeover the BHA, reminiscent of what Bernie Ecclestone did for the great good of F1?

 

NO MORE GAMES FOR GODOLPHIN STAR

The season of retirement for Godolphin stars continued yesterday as connections revealed that MODERN GAMES, this season’s Group 1 Lockinge Stakes winner, had been retired.

The four-year-old by DUBAWI landed five G1s during his three years on the track, a run that included two Breeders’ Cups, one Poule d’Essai des Poulains, one Woodbine Mile Stakes, and his last victory, the Lockinge Stakes.

This retirement adds to the losses of NATIVE TRAIL, ADAYAR, and HURRICANE LANE, all within the last 60 days.

It seems then that now, Godolphin needs to bring through new stallions and, more importantly for their immediate success, more two-year-olds that can hit the ground running heading into next year.

 

YORK TOO QUICK FOR THORN

This year’s Group 1 Goodwood Cup successor, QUICKTHORN, is “50/50” to turn up in next week’s Group 2 Lonsdale Cup, trainer Hughie Morrison has confirmed.

Currently priced as the 9/2 second-favourite in the market, the six-year-old by NATHANIEL may skip his intended target on the Knavesmire as the 24-day turnaround between races may be too short to see him at his best.

If he doesn’t turn up to York, QUICKTHORN could be next seen in the Group 2 Long Distance Cup on Champions’ Day at Ascot or connections will draw stumps and give him a holiday.

YOUNG BLOOD

15.20 SALISBURY

Charlie Appleby is having a year to forget at the moment. It hasn’t been near his usual A1 standard. ARABIAN CROWN is his only runner today. He was a €600,000 yearling by DUBAWI. His form is ok, twice ran at Sandown winning his last start by 2 lengths. Appleby has won the last 2 runnings of this race.

ARABIC LEGEND looks one of the most exciting contenders here and he is the 9/4 morning favourite. His dam won the Gr1 EP Taylor Stakes and he is by Dubawi, so bred exceptionally well. He won his maiden in good style at Newmarket and on form lines he would be marginally ahead of ARABIAN CROWN.

SON was spoken highly of at the start of the year by Richard Hannon. He ran 15 days ago at Goodwood when 5th in the Vintage stakes and his 5th in the Superlative stakes puts him ahead of the reopposing Quatre Bras and Metallo. He will be a welcome stakes winner by DUBAWI’S first season sire TOO DARN HOT.

SPANISH POET is by LOPE DE VEGA and his pedigree suggests he’ll be an exciting prospect for next year. This year is a bonus; on form lines he will be putting it up to the top two in the betting they have all beaten WILD WAVES and EMPERORS SON so at 13/2 he is overpriced for a yard going great guns.

METALLO and QAUTRE BRAS both have Son to beat and he is third favourite. They have experience on their side and Metallo has won at a Salisbury before and gets the lucky stall 1.

LIGHTNING LEO has beaten Quatre Bras on his first start, BGP backed him. But has come up short in the Chesham at Ascot and a Listed race in France. He’s by DUBAWI’S son NIGHT OF THUNDER and out of a GALILEO mare - very close breeding considering NIGHT OF THUNDER is out of a GALILEO mare so inbred 3x2 to Galileo.

Verdict: it’ll be a welcome winner for Godolphin but the yard isn’t in great form. The Beckett and Balding colts could be the answer. Going to be brave and pick SPANISH POET and ARABIC LEGEND for the forecast bet with SPANISH POET the likely winner on previous form but knowing what ARABIC LEGEND did lto was quite good.

STATS OF THE DAY

None today.

RISK ON

16.30 CAERNARFON

A game third in the Oaks, then took on the boys in the Hampton Court Stakes and ran well but eventually came 6th. She ran in the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood last time out and probably would have preferred a stronger pace but ran well again in Gr1 company. Drops into Listed class today. Dodges a penalty, gets the handy weight for age allowance and is the highest rated in the race. Half bet 7/2.