Equinties - Newbury is BACK

Gm Equinauts

Our last three bumper previews have nailed two trifecta’s. If you’re unsure what a trifecta is, it’s an exotic bet available on most sportsbooks and the Tote where you have to find the horses to fill the 1-2-3.

We’re very, very good with out bumper previews and premium subscribers have taken good yield from the trifecta bets. Stratford’s trifecta dividend paid £316 and yesterdays paid £40. So for example, to a £1 stake (on 24 of the possible combinations) you’d have profit £292!

To play exotics for massive dividends (why wouldn’t you): Tote | Offers

Let’s dive in!

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

CHANGE OF PLANS

There are a few nice horses making their seasonal reappearances today in both England and Ireland.

IT ETAIT TEMPS is back in the Clonmel Oil Chase ahead of a potential Champion Chase campaign, INTENSE RAFFLES and GENTLEMAN DE MEE are there to take him on, the Grade 1-winning mare SPINDLEBERRY against BIOLUMINESCENCE in a Listed race beforehand, and JONBON’s half-sister WILSTAR is making his hurdles debut in the 2m maiden hurdle at Newbury.

The Newbury card was looking pretty decent until the big names started to get pulled (think LEADER IN THE PARK and KHRISMA) but we still have belters to look forward to including the mare hurdle which features JACKIE HOBBS versus SHEEZER DANCER and some other well bred types who will most defo go on to better things.

There is also the always-interesting Pertemps Qualifier that includes EAST INDIA EXPRESS, ACT OF AUTHORITY, and, notably, HAITI COULEURS. Focussing on HAITI COULEURS, the initial plan for the start of this season was today’s Pertemps Qualifier before the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury, despite JP McManus’ advice of avoiding the contest. And now, Curtis may just be using that information, and she is considering a different race to Newbury’s feature staying handicap chase.

The Betfair Chase is the contest that Curtis is eyeing-up having seen the first set of entries earlier in the week. She did give the horse an entry for the Betfair Chase in order to have the option, and having seemingly been quite keen on the Coral Gold Cup, Curtis might just be wavering. She told the Post: "The Coral Gold Cup is probably his main aim now. I have got him in the Betfair Chase, but that is maybe a little bit too soon. 

"The problem is we've struggled to get him out over fences because of the ground, so we're just doing the best we can because in either of those races I wouldn't have been happy going in without a run. 

"We'll see what the ground is like at Haydock and how the races are shaping up, including what top weight is going to be in the Coral Gold Cup. So there's a few things there to look at before we decide."

Obviously, that isn’t her being overly bullish on either race, but she’s probably giving more consideration to the Betfair Chase than she previously was. She also spoke higher of the Betfair Chase on Nick Luck Daily, rather than his Racing Post quotes.
It would be quite the ask to take on the likes of GREY DAWNING, HANDSTANDS, SPILLANE’S TOWER and co when he could carry a decent weight in an easier Coral Gold Cup instead.

But, it’s hard to argue against the idea that he is very unexposed. He won the National Hunt Chase easily, and then he took the Irish Grand National as easy as he’d like. Off 152, he is in a tricky spot for a handicap, as something south of 150 would probably see connections go to the Coral Gold Cup in a heartbeat.
Still, we think Newbury would give him a better chance of winning.

BEST ONE WE’VE HAD

The start that Phillip Hobbs and Johnson White have had to this season is quite remarkable.

Having had a couple of years of mediocrity, without trying to sound too harsh, they’ve unleashed some proper tanks on the track.

They started with STARZAND at Ffos Las, who dispatched a couple of nice horses, including DIG DEEP and GEE FORCE FLYER. Post-race, White said that STARZAND was the one that was giving them sleepless nights through the summer, and then just over a week later, Hobbs has come out and labelled SOBER GLORY as “the best one we’ve had for a long time”. Get your stories straight, lads.

To the eye, yesterday was very impressive, though it’s hard to work out what the race was like. Harry Skelton openly admitted that all of their novice hurdlers are coming on for their first runs, which probably explains the “sensible” rise on KADASTRAL in the race, but to be honest, it almost doesn’t matter what was behind him having won like he did. He was extremely well backed (telling sign), he was ridden like losing was out of the question, he looked measured at his hurdles off a slow pace, and he put the race to bed fairly quickly.

He was very good, and that’s all we can say. Expanding on the previous quote, Hobbs said: "It was a very important day and thankfully it's gone well. He's been ready to run for close to a month but we'd just been waiting for a bit of softer ground. All his bumpers were on very soft ground, but I don't think he necessarily needs it like that.

"I'm sure he'll stay further, but I don't think we need to. He really is exciting and probably the best one we've had for a long time."

Hobbs said the Tolworth would be a race for him. Unfortunately, that race no longer exists, but the Grade 1 Formby Novices’ Hurdle is probably what he was on about, and that makes total sense. Obviously, getting to see him against strong opposition will be nice at some stage, but the vibes seem correct, the chat looks strong, and the performance yesterday was very admirable. There’s lots to like for Brocade Racing and the Hobbs-White team.

BIG RACE OF THE DAY - 14.22 LISTED MARES CHASE

We were going to preview the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil Chase, but IT ETAIT TEMPS should win, so that’s boring. The Listed Mares Chase over 2m5f at 14.22 is a touch more interesting, so let’s give it a bit of a preview. The ground is yielding to soft, and the softer it is, the better the chance BIOLUMINESCENCE has.

She looked like a bit of a mud lover last season, and they thought so much of her throughout the campaign. They actually ran her in the Irish Grand National. That was maybe asking one too many questions, but there was a fair bit of hype around her last year, and she won on seasonal reappearance. A lot of people backed her for Cheltenham last year, and while she didn’t run, there must have be a bit of confidence in the various camps. However, she has tables to turn with SPINDLEBERRY, who is the favourite here.

The Willie Mullins-trained mare kicked the JP McManus-owned seven-year-old out of the way in the Listed contest at Fairyhouse, though BIOLUMINESCENCE did give 10lbs away.

She finished the year by winning a Grade 1 against the boys at Fairyhouse, so she is still very unexposed, and the Mullins camp think she is their Mares’ Chase horse for this season. That being said, one would imagine she could come on for the run, and she has a 12lb swing with BIOLUMINESCENCE. The match up between the two is fascinating, and the pre-race betting market could be a big guide here.

That being said, they are not the only horses in here. KILBARRY SAINT is next in the market, and she was down to run at Wexford last month if not for the good ground.
She was behind both of the market leaders at Fairyhouse last season, so there’s form to reverse, and she is just a 128-rated mare against two 145 mares. Maybe connections have plotted her towards these early-season races?

If race fitness is the one you’re looking for, STORMALONG is the one. She’s been running through the summer, so she wouldn’t mind slightly better ground, but she hasn’t won since a Listed race at Killarney in May. This does look like a tough, tough task, and it’s hard to fancy her with strength.

PEBBLE BLEU and CHOSEN SHANT complete the field. No.

RISK ON

We backed another faller yesterday in SWINGIN SAFARI, we trust he’s back home safe and sound and enjoying some extra carrots this morning. We did back a winner though! FIRST ROCK was our first since Saturdays gamble (felt a long time). Single banked and our Saturday ante-post nicely levered.

Premium newsletter readers had the chance to land an easy 1-2-3 in the bumper yesterday as the best bred horses (for that race) came to the fore:

That’s twice in a week we’ve landed the trifecta. Subscribe below to access our bumper preview today.

Today we’re playing several faves:

14.05 MINNIEMUM

Back to her optimum trip and should be winning this with reasons to draw a lines through the others. 6/4 shot but a good bet.

14.37 PARK PRINCESS

Something stinks, she should be odds on on bumper form so we have to go with it. 11/8, she should be 8/11. Maybe punters are laying it because she’s only run on slow ground? We think she’ll be fine. Let’s see if there is a pricing mistake.

14.15 JACKIE HOBBS

Well fancied (we won on her last season) and was always thought of to do better over hurdles. The yard are bullish today but its a hot race so small bet at 2/1.

Small 15/1 treble with a big price to come, posted to X @equinties

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