Equinties - New York, New York

Gm Equinauts

Happy Birthday to the big guy!

He obviously was enjoying his birthday cake so much he nearly forgot to declare DELACROIX for the weekend, he declared with only 8 minutes to spare!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

CORRECT TARGET?

Yesterday’s Punchestown card required a second look at the start of the day. Not so much from a betting angle, but just because of the quality on display.

HEART WOOD, CROKE PARK, KING OF KINGSFIELD, BIRDIE OR BUST, and MONBEG PARK are all horses that contest decent races through the winter, and yet they were all at a midweek Punchestown card.

Henry De Bromhead had a double on the day, as GAMEBALL kicked things off well before HEART WOOD won the Grade 3 2m7f Chase.

GAMEBALL is obviously unexposed, but we’ll know how good he could be when he steps up into Graded company. The horse we want to talk about more is last season’s Grade 1 Ryanair Chase runner-up, HEART WOOD. He didn’t sparkle yesterday, but that was for obvious reasons as this was his seasonal reappearance. De Bromhead’s tend to need the run first time out, so even getting his head in front of the race-fit MONBEG PARK is a bit of an achievement.

MONBEG PARK jumped really nicely, and he served it up to HEART WOOD. It looked like he had nicked it from the front at multiple times during the race, but class prevailed in the end.

Anyway, what De Bromhead said in his post-race interview afterwards was interesting, and we wonder if De Bromhead might have messed up a little bit here.

He said: "Down Royal (Ladbrokes Champion Chase, November 1) could come soon enough, but he’s in, and we have the option.

"Obviously, he was second in the Ryanair last season, but I’d love to see him over three miles again. So, you’ve got Kempton at Christmas or the Savills Chase.”

Everything he said there is fine, but we just wonder whether he’s plotted him slightly wrong? Can we say that? In our mind, the perfect race for him would either be the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase or the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal. Both of them are on November 1st, and he probably won’t run in either as it’s less than three weeks until then.

So, that’s when he has to be plotted towards the Betfair Chase and Savills Chase in December, two races that will be fiercely hot. Could he go to the John Durkan along the way and use his potential race fitness over 2m4f to win? Of course he could, but the John Durkan will still be a race full of GALOPIN DES CHAMPS, FASTORSLOW, INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN, and other genuine Gold Cup horses.

If De Bromhead started him out a little bit earlier, maybe in the Grade 2 Gowran Park Champion Chase that WESTERN FOLD won recently, that would have put him spot on for a tilt at either the Ladbrokes or the Charlie Hall. And, if he turned up to Wetherby in November on decent enough ground, he would be pretty formidable. Instead, he will be campaigned in tough Grade 1s from now, and he’d have to improve (or have a significant fitness edge over his rivals) to win.

He’s a nice horse, no question, but the Charlie Hall was potentially there for the taking.
Anyway, he’s 20/1 for the King George now. The race could suit him, but it will be rather hot.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK

Godolphin are certainly happy to campaign a little bit obtusely with their promising young ones. In recent years, we’ve seen them keep NOTABLE SPEECH on the all-weather until his 2000 Guineas success, OPERA BALLO followed a similar path this year until the Craven, and RULING COURT won the Jumeirah 2000 Guineas before landing the British alternative in May.

They use the all-weather as their friend, and are happy to miss the glittering lights of a “Classic trial” if they need to, and that is strange but it works.

Why are we bringing this up? Well, they happened to release a bit of an exciting prospect last night at Kempton, and he’s already earning quotes of 33/1 for the 2000 Guineas.

First of all, we love the use of the drone at Kempton last night. For those standalone evening meeting, RTV & ATR should really use drones more.

Secondly, as William Buick said in his post-race interview, you’d have to be really impressed by what TALK OF NEW YORK did on his debut yesterday. He was a bit coltish in the prelims, but he certainly knew how to race on the track, as he blitzed his rivals. The horses he smashed up had already raced before, and yet Godolphin sent him off the odds-on favourite, so there must have been strong vibes around him.

And now, we’re talking about this horse as a potential Guineas contender in 2025. There’s a long way to go, but we said in this newsletter a few days ago that the 2000 Guineas division looked like one that could be open, if the right horse came through the ranks. He has to go and prove himself, but last night was a good start.

Furthermore, his win is another reminder of how much we’ll miss WOOTTON BASSETT in a few years time, but with TALK OF NEW YORK, he could have an interesting Classic contender next year.

Post-race, Buick said: “He was perfect in the race. He’s babyish, as you’d expect being his first time out, and a little full of himself, but he couldn’t have done anything wrong.

"Once he got relaxed and into a nice rhythm, he picked up really good. You’d have to be pretty impressed with what he did there.

“I’m delighted with him, and all in all, he looks a good horse for next year. He’d been doing all the right things at home as well. Everyone had a high opinion of him, and to see a performance like that would have pleased everyone."

MOVING TO MARSEILLE

We’re pretty sure there are going to be a fair few popular horses on Champions Day this weekend. For one, TRAWLERMAN will be in the multis, as he looks to have a penalty kick in the Group 1 Long Distance Cup. We don’t want to blow our own trumpet too much, but on September 17th, we said that 5/4 for him looked like incredible value. It’s seems like it was.

Anyway, he’ll be popular, and we’re pretty sure a fair few people will attach themselves onto CALANDAGAN in the Champion Stakes. The memory of last year’s second will be lingering around the place, and it’s hard to fault what he has done this season.

Of course, FIELD OF GOLD will divide opinions. With his break, and the fact he has to bounce back from a poor Goodwood effort, he is the class ‘play or lay’ horse for Saturday.

But, what about LAZZAT in the Sprint? If you asked anyone who knows anything after his win at Royal Ascot, the survey would have suggested that he’s a very popular horse, and there’s no chance he would have been 4/1 for this weekend on the back of the Royal Meeting. He would have been shorter, for sure.

Since then, he’s lost in France, and he then finished fifth in the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock when even money. We can now see why there is a bit of unease in his price, but he is still a classy animal.

Working out why these sprinters have their off days can be quite the tricky process, but the Wathnan Racing team have theory. Richard Brown said: "James [Doyle] thought that the revs were a bit high over a fast six that day and we know we are going back to the course and distance of his best performance.

"Interestingly, after Lazzat won at Ascot, Jerome moved him to Deauville and I don’t think he was happy there. He’s been back in Marseille for the past month or six weeks and I believe he’s a happier horse back at home. He’s in great nick and I think the plan next year will be for him to remain there from wherever he is going to run."

That seems like a valid enough excuse. We have no opinion on the race currently, but what we will say is that the race has chucked up a heap of surprises in the past.
ART POWER at 40/1, DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT won at 33/1, and SANDS OF MALI won at 28/1. At this stage, without knowing the draw or what the ground will truly be, 4/1 does seem skinny, especially for a horse who needs to bounce back.

He can, especially at a track he likes, but it’s a short price to find out.

RISK ON

We spent way too long analysing the bumper today (but think it was worth it) so will post one bet now and and post any other plays on X @equinties.

16.35 AMERICAN FLIGHT

Too well bred to ignore on handicap debut. Worth a bet to find out if he’s well in for the Irish mafia. 2/1.

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