Equinties - new hire higher

Gm Equinauts

Our new hire Norm updated his betting ‘scorecard’ this morning for all to see on X.

It’s a thing of beauty:

For context, Berkshire Hathaway’s return to investors the last two years is 15%… Norms is 130%. And that Ladies and Gents, is why we hired him.

Now, let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

LEGER TYPE?

Is ANCIENT WISDOM a horse for the St Leger?

That was the question many people were asking after the banker of the day won the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket yesterday.

He has to be taken seriously for the final Classic of the year, not just due to what he has done, but also when you consider the level of opposition he could potentially face.

This 3yo by DUBAWI disappointed in the Derby and couldn’t lay it up to ECONOMICS in the Dante, but his two-year-old form is bang there having beaten DEIRA MILE, DEVIL’S POINT, and DANCING GEMINI in the Futurity at Doncaster.

Yesterday was a case of ‘is he back to his best’. Well, he is, so what could he face in the Leger?

LOS ANGELES could well turn up but staying the distance would be a worry, ILLINOIS scrambled in against a stablemate at Royal Ascot, and then you are getting into the likes of SUNWAY, MATSURI, and JAN BRUEGHEL.

Those could well improve to be better than him, but ANCIENT WISDOM has proven himself to a good level, so he shouldn’t be totally disregarded at 10’s.

O’BRIEN’S VICTORY

Speaking of performances to be impressed by, our singles NAP WHISTLEJACKET set a good standard in the Group 2 July Stakes winning by nearly two lengths (would have been more had he stayed straight).

He travelled, he quickened, and ultimately, he won well.

Can we question the form? The second, BILLBOARD STAR, cost a mere 38,000gns as a yearling, is by a below average stallion and was beaten in an even more below average maiden on debut.

The third, AOMORI CITY, is still unexposed, but he hasn’t done too much to date despite his big price tag.

So, if you are hanging your hat on him as a banker on his next start, it may be worth holding fire on the full brother to LITTLE BIG BEAR.

Regarding his next start, the Prix Morny or Phoenix Stakes looks like viable options, though one would have to be slightly windy about his chances.

BIG RACE PREVIEWS

14.25 DUCHESS OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES

We’ll make a confession now, we are a bit of a sucker for the Albany Stakes at Ascot; we love that race.

The Albany has been a good guide to this race through the years, 7 winners had either won or at least ran in the Albany. 3 came via the Queen Mary route.

The Albany form is represented by HEAVENS GATE and MOUNTAIN BREEZE, the former led and got mowed down by a couple but she had done the donkey work. MOUNTAIN BREEZE never really fired but one point to make is the ground today would be more to her liking being by LOPE DE VEGA and out of mare LAVA FLOW who produced PINATUBO who liked cut.

There should be such a big difference in price, probably worth noting that Appleby is also in a much better place with his yard operating at 30%.

MIGHTY ERIU and MAW LAM come here via the Queen Mary, both were 2nd and 3rd. 3 winners of this have trodden the same path. Their pedigree’s are very different to the ‘Albany girls’, a bit more Windsor enclosure compared to Royal Enclosure! Obviously the 6 furlongs brings about a few question marks as well.

ARABIAN DUSK and TALES OF THE HEART both ran 2nd and 3rd last time out. Tales of The Heart has always been thought of, considering she was brought for 400,000gns she is bred nicely and speedily. Her brother is CATURRA. ARABIAN DUSK cost a cool 525,000gns at the breeze ups.

LIBERALISED has ran once and won once for the Karl Burke stable. From a decent 2yo family by KODIAC. She was a 25/1 shot in the Albany suggesting that she is good without being a world beater, otherwise we’ll find out today how good she is.

FIERY LUCY makes the trip from Ireland with stablemate MIGHTY ERIU. Looking for important black type, suspect the two fillies are keeping each other company on the road over.

BOUNTIFUL and TEEJ A bring some experience to the party. So does ENCHANTING EMPRESS who was on a hat trick before disappointing in the Queen Mary. The easy ground might help TEEJ A, BOUNTIFUL has had easier tasks this year but bred to shape well today.

Verdict: At the prices it would be fun to put up the Godolphin filly. However, HEAVENS GATE beat her at Ascot in the Albany and has better form, with the better of hindsight, leading up to Ascot than MOUNTAIN BREEZE. TALES OF THE HEART might offer some each-way value if you’re that way inclined.

15.35 GROUP 1 FALMOUTH STAKES

We spoke about how connections were keeping an eye on conditions for PORTA FORTUNA in today’s Group 1 Falmouth Stakes, though it seems like they are happy to send her to the race.

The three-year-old by CARAVAGGIO has yet to finish out of the first three in all of her career starts, and despite winning the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, she is probably still considered an underrated horse.

She has won on heavy before, so maybe she’ll handle the ground better than expected.

Another Royal Ascot winner in the line-up is RUNNING LION, a horse who returned from a bad spell of things to win the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes. That came on quick ground, but she was given a sterling ride from Oisin Murphy that day and her Pretty Polly success in 2023 came on soft.

She’s clearly well-respected and in good form. It would be rough for connections if she disappointed again and she is a good horse.

The horse for plenty of money is A LILAC ROLLA for Paddy Twomey and Billy Lee. Her opening price of 12/1 is long gone as she is a 4/1-shot now. But is she worth it at the price? If she wins, yes! OPERA SINGER form lines make the fave too short.

A lot of people’s banker for Ascot was ROGUE MILLENNIUM but she could only muster fifth behind RUNNING LION. She was keeping on at the line that day and the one worry was the draw that day as low draws have a bad record around a bend at Ascot.

Watching her run back again, she was denied a clear effort initially which allowed the winner to gain a length or so. She doesn’t have to find too much to reserve those placings.

Could the one to watch at a price be JABAARA?

She won snugly lto and the third, HERITAGE HOUSE, has 2yo form with the French 1000 Guineas fourth ROMANTIC STYLE. The fourth, NAVASSA ISLAND, also has 2yo form with PORTA FORTUNA, so JABAARA could be better than her price suggests.

Verdict: We’re not going to bet this race but if our hand was forced we’d be taking on the fave with the unexposed A LILAC ROLLA at 5’s.

RISK ON

Last night we were told to back Kevin Ryan’s in the 16.20, was 7’s then and now 5/2 annoyingly. We’ll leave now at that price -we don’t need it after landing the 18/1 NAP yesterday.

Todays’ singles on a tough day are:

14.40 PRIME ART

Speccy ew swing at a huge price here. With reasons to draw lines through some, 22’s massive for four places.

15.50 WHISKEY PETE & 18.40 MEGALITHIC

Beckett coming into hot form, both should be the horses to beat! Small singles and 10/1 double.

17.20 GOOD GOOD GOOD

Very unexposed and supposed to have improved a lot. Strong bet against the fave.

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