Equinties - new competition pending

Author

BGP Capital
July 10, 2024

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

We’re thinking of running another competition.

Maybe send someone to the races in Miami. Or Mauritius. Wait… Cape Town, South Africa? Yeh that could work.

Just need to figure out how to launch it but if you hit LIKE on the tweet below tweet we’ll send you early info on how to enter and be in with a chance to win our next comp:

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

HELL AT HQ

The Newmarket July meeting kicks off tomorrow and a lot of people are looking forward to seeing some top quality horses.

However, if you are looking at the cards at this stage, you’ll want to take into account the weather and current soft ground as there has been a lot of rain around the Newmarket area.

We’re licking our lips!

The course had 20mm, yes 20mm, of rainfall between 14:30 and 15:30 yesterday which has resulted in a soft going description and the current forecast won’t allow for that ground to properly dry out.

These conditions will play into the hands of a few, notably ARREST and HAMISH who look likely to do battle in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales’s Stakes on Thursday…and as for the rest? You’ll need to read Saturdays newsletter!

WITH SOME ROMANCE

The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes can provide some memorable finishes. Take its most-recent future with PYLEDRIVER’s win in 2022. That was a good race for reasons people didn’t expect pre-race:

The race is special and this year could see a star-studded line-up.

Why? Well, having said that AUGUSTE RODIN would be aimed for the race, Aidan O’Brien has floated the idea that CITY OF TROY could head there after his Eclipse win on Saturday.

On Monday, O’Brien said: "His options are the King George, the Juddmonte International and the Irish Champion Stakes. He could do anything, but we just want to give him the ten days after Sandown to see how he is before we decide and see what the lads want to do. 

"The first option would be the King George, the second option would be York and the third option would be Leopardstown. Whether he does one, two or all three of those I don't know yet, we'll have to see."

Running both of his two stable stars against each other would be some sight, though it would pose some questions as to why they might do it.

As for horses away from Coolmore, Godolphin’s REBEL’S ROMANCE will be given his first UK Group 1 assignment in the King George.

Having won the Champions & Chater Cup in Hong Kong on his last start, he is a real globe-trotting superstar, and Ascot is now firmly in his sights.

Trainer Charlie Appleby said: “Rebel’s Romance has never been better since coming back from Hong Kong. We thought that would be an arduous trip for him because of the long haul from the UK, but since shipping back he has been bouncing. I’m not saying he had a hard race there, but in the wet conditions a lot of horses felt the effects.

“He’s been an absolute star for Godolphin. He’s unbeaten this year, winning in Qatar, Dubai and Hong Kong, and goes next for the King George at Ascot because he deserves a crack at a Group 1 in Britain.”

A LOOK AHEAD

Haydock was called off Saturday so we didn’t get to see our selection run. This weekend there is plenty of racing and the Bunbury Cup is the race we’ll focus on for our brilliant new section A Look Ahead.

Shall we assume the going is going to be soft!?

The horse for money ante-post is CARRYTHEONE, an eye-catcher from Royal Ascot.

He finished third in the Buckingham Palace Stakes having had a troubled route through the contest - he’s on an unchanged mark of 101 and he has won off 97 before, so winning on Saturday is not out of the realms of possibility however he would prefer quick ground so on that basis we’ll take him on.

The other horse for plenty of money is Fellowes’ GORAK as he is 8/1 from 16/1. He has Group 3 form from last year’s John Of Gaunt Stakes and he was a good second to CARRYTHEONE in a Class 2 Newmarket handicap at the start of the season. He’s always looked like a fair horse and a mark of 96 looks fair too but will he like soft? He’s won on both firm and soft but his pedigree suggests good ground is preferred however he can go in the mud (probably the dam sire who helps that).

DIVINE LIBRA comes from that Buckingham Palace Stakes as he was sixth at Ascot, but connections know he wants it on the softer side. He set a nice standard at Chester in May when winning off a mark or 87 and he’s only eight pounds higher, so he could well be improving but he’d have to defy a career high mark!

Hills also has COGITATE in the race at a big price. He was very poor at Ascot, but it was his first run for a while and on rattling ground. A softer surface unknown and he needs to proved he’s trained on since his debut win where he looked very very good. Probably wants concrete though so we wouldn’t back him even at this mammoth price

AWAAL was a well-backed favourite for this race last year and could only muster third, though one could argue the form isn’t too strong. The Crisford’s have also been in rough form this season, though they have banged in three winners from their last nine runners, so the tides could be turning. The ground will be perfect for AWAAL and he’ll be staying on when others get stuck in the mud.

Two more interesting horses to note are AL SHABAB STORM and MOSTABSHIR. The former has progressed nicely this season and he is officially three pounds well-in, so that is something to be impressed by. He has a very good chance here of 97, though the proven head of MOSTABSHIR should also be considered.

Obviously, one of his attractive qualities is that he is a half-brother to MOSTAHDAF who did his best winning at four and he ran well in the Buckingham Palace Stakes. He is not out of this off a mark of 101, though soft ground could be a worry.

Verdict: We’re trusting the ground is going to be a bog on Saturday, right? Our selection will be focused solely on pedigree. It might be worth siding with two in this market, one at the top of the market and a big priced swing too - just in case. You get odd results in the mud! First up is AWAAL 10/1, he was targeted for it last year and the Crisford’s have gone for it again. The ground is in his favour this time. The bigger priced ew play is REBEL TERRITORY at 25/1. He’ll love the ground and has form lines with AWAAL through VAFORTINO making his far far too big.

RISK ON

17.05 RHETORICAL

A bit short at 8/11 but should just win and can be used to lever another.

18.50 CITY ESCAPE

Won in the mud at Ffos Las last year. Last years conditions worse than this but she’ll love todays cut versus mainly a field who need good or better. 5/2 is a bet.

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