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Equinties - Mullins' method
BGP Capital
December 08, 2025
Gm Equinauts
We’re seeing a lot of posts on racing x about the form of Willie Mullins and his lower than usual strike rate (which shows just how damn good he is because he’s still operating at a strike rate other trainers could only dream of).
We remember the same sentiment of posts this time last year so we took a little look of the yards performance historically to try and get an insight into the wizards genius training methodology.
Since 2017, (and this is just in Ireland) Willie has runners to the count of a huge three digit number. The lowest in ‘17 was 100, the most was last year with 153 runners. Bar the rare anomaly, his months runners are well in the two digits, averaging around 50.
Naturally, his strike rate in December is lower owed to the sheer volume of runners and he clearly likes to use December as part of his training programme where he can get a good blow and some crucial experience into his runners ahead of their spring/summer campaigns. This is proved when looking at the month of his most successful strike rate. In 2025, January saw his highest strike rate with 1 in 3 winning (bar June when had an unusually low number of runners). January was his best strike rate in 2024 too operating at a massive 42%.
So, Mullins fans. Fear not. This is all part of his grand plan and the time to back his horses is in the new year!
Let’s dive in!
HEADLINE ROUNDUP
LULAMBA WALKS THE WALK
You’d have to be the Grinch to think this start to the jump season hasn’t been proper. Monsters have been unleashed and their clashes have left us wanting more (apart from the Fighting Fifth, of course) and as such, the Cheltenham markets are also formulating nicely, if not irrationally in some cases.
Last weekend a case in point where Nicky Henderson was one man who added to the theatre, both for reasons on and off the track.
Let’s start with his runners at Sandown, and how their seasons might be shaping up. LULAMBA is the obvious horse to put under the microscope first, as he was very good in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase.
His stumble after the first jump was hair-raising, and a few more of his early jumps probably lacked perfection, but there was a lot to like about what he did after the sixth fence. Nico de Boinville had enough of sitting at the back, and he moved him up to challenge BE AWARE. They had a nice little ding-dong ahead of the Pond Fence, but after then, the Triumph Hurdle runner-up showed his dominance to win impressively.
His next races could be interesting, as it’s probably unlikely that he goes to Kempton at Christmas. The Kingmaker would have to be an option, though Hendo did mention the Game Spirit at Newbury, and this is the race SIR GINO was going to run in last season before his setback.
Hendo also mentioned that he’d like a run before a potential Game Spirit tilt, but the Kingmaker is on the same day as the Game Spirit, so it’s one or the other. Hendo was quite supportive of the Windsor Winter Millions meeting last year, so could he run him in the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase in January before the Kingmaker/Game Spirit?
If not, there aren’t many other options, and one would suspect the ground could be soft at Windsor.
Either way, he is quite a smart horse, as if you needed reminding. That Arkle picture is sexy, and it’s no foregone conclusion for KOPEK DES BORDES by any means. LULAMBA and ROMEO COOLIO are proper.
Speaking of SIR GINO, it will be the Christmas Hurdle for him later this month, as Henderson all but ruled CONSTITUTION HILL out of a hurdles spin at Kempton.
Henderson said: “He [SIR GINO] did school this week and we did jump hurdles and it’s the first obstacle he has jumped since his issue
“I think the Christmas Hurdle is probably the right option and we know Constitution Hill is not going to go there, I think.
“Therefore the race is wide open and it could be a nicer way to start Sir Gino off on this new expedition. What happens after that, I have no idea.”
And on CON HILL, he said: “I would say a mile and a half would be fine for him but I would have to find the race for him.
“I would say going on the Flat is one way of going about it and it’s a very difficult conundrum. To be fair, the dust needs to settle down a bit more.
“He is a horse who everyone likes and we have to do our best. We’re well aware of the position we’re in after what has been happening and we have to think it out very carefully.”
All the talk about CON HILL maybe having another go over hurdles seems to be all but gone. Saying that, Henderson does seem nicely bullish about SIR GINO, and we’d have it odds-on that if he wins the Christmas Hurdle, the first words out of Hendo’s mouth after will be “he’s a Champion Hurdle horse this season”.
Considering how prestigious the Champion Hurdle is, as well as the complexity of targeting the Champion Chase with little preparation and SIR GINO’s age (five, six next year), it all makes sense to go down the Champion Hurdle route.
Finally, what does Hendo do with JONBON now?
He’s on a decline, isn’t he? It’s sad to say this, as he has given us some wonderful memories in the past, but he is probably 7lbs below his best, and when IL ETAIT TEMPS is doing what he’s doing, it makes the prospect of winning a Champion Chase pretty unachievable. So, with this in mind, there’s only one thing Hendo can do. Step him up in trip.
Races like the Ascot Chase are there to have a go at, and then you could miss Cheltenham and make the Melling at Aintree his Gold Cup. The Clarence House in January would be probably a soft race to pick up as well, so maybe he could go there next and stick at two miles, but he likes Ascot, so why not take a stab at the Ascot Chase? Either way, he’d probably have a tough time of things in the Champion Chase or Ryanair, especially at a track he’s maybe not in love with.
Love you, JONBON.
CHASING GREATNESS
So, we’ve covered Hendo’s big guns, especially in the two-mile chasing scene, both novice and open company. What about the Irish?
MARINE NATIONALE, IL ETAIT TEMPS, and MAJBOROUGH were their main Champion Chase contenders heading into this weekend, but in which order they sit has probably changed. After the Tingle Creek, IL ETAIT TEMPS is now the ante-post favourite for the Queen Mum, and this is very well-deserved based on what he did at Sandown on Saturday.
Everything just seemed a bit effortless. Now, whether this is because of JONBON’s potential regression and L’EAU DU SUD’s slight underperformance, who knows, but the move he made after the pond fence was very nice, and then he just won like a very good horse.
There are very few negatives about IL ETAIT TEMPS’ Champion Chase chances other than his Cheltenham credentials. He is 0/3 at Prestbury Park, but in fairness, one came in the Triumph Hurdle and the other was in MARINE NATIONALE’s Supreme. The final one occurred in GAELIC WARRIOR’s Arkle, but he was still a sound third.
We wouldn’t be in a rush to write him off in Gloucestershire, but the question is still there to ask.
It’s fair to say that MAJBOROUGH was Willie Mullins’ number one for the Queen Mum this year. At least, that was the general consensus, and the market agreed. It was a fair stance to have, and for some people, it still is, as he was a very smart novice who comes from that red-hot Arkle form. You know, the Arkle that had JANGO BAIE, ONLY BY NIGHT, and L’EAU DU SUD in it.
Unfortunately, after yesterday, we’re all scratching our heads a little bit as he was beaten in the Grade 2 Hilly Way Chase by FOUND A FIFTY.
Let’s look at some positives first. His engine looked fine and FOUND A FIFTY was a race-fit horse. We imagine MAJBOROUGH will come on for it plenty by the time he runs at Christmas, so form could definitely be reversed if they meet again. That being said, his jumping has to be a big concern with a view to being a Champion Chase horse, and this is something Mullins admitted post-race.
Mullins said: “I was disappointed with his jumping. It didn’t hold together going down the back and he paid the price for that. I was hoping he'd jump a lot better. But there you are, it’s a bit disappointing, but hopefully he can improve for later in the season.
“I’m hoping that run will bring him on. He just needs to improve his jumping to be competitive at that level. We'll look at Christmas with him if he recovers well from this race.”
Add yesterday into the equation alongside his Arkle jumping and there is a clear answer to MAJBOROUGH. When he’s put under pressure, his jumping falters, and that’s not what you need in a Champion Chaser. It will be hard enough to back him with confidence this season if he takes on fellow Champion Chase candidates, and this is why IL ETAIT TEMPS is a better horse for the Queen Mum than him.
As for MARINE NATIONALE, we haven’t seen him yet this season, so there’s not too much comment to make. We imagine he’ll come on for his first run of the year, and Barry Connell will be on the hunt for nicer ground, which can’t be guaranteed around Christmas time. He is still a massive player in March, but IL ETAIT TEMPS adds another element, for sure, and if we were having a bet in the race right now, IL ETAIT TEMPS would be our idea of the winner.
WEEKEND EYE-CATCHERS
PRESLEY - SATURDAY 15.21 CHEPSTOW
If you’re a weekend subscriber you’ll know we backed this lad on Saturday. He should have won easily but was given way too much to do. Should win the right race next time out.
LISNAMURRICAN - SUNDAY 12.42 HUNTINGDON
Writing these eye-catchers, we’ve realised there weren’t many at Sandown at Aintree this weekend. Maybe the best horses ended up winning? At Huntingdon, two horses caught the eye in novice/maiden hurdles with a view to handicaps, and the first is LISNAMURRICAN. Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls have always thought plenty of DRACO MALFOY, so to be beaten by him who has clearly improved for obstacles is not the worst thing at all. The front two pulled well clear, and while he may be a short enough price on his next start in a novice/maiden, he LISNAMURRICAN looks like a smart type for Hendo.
RISK ON
A blank day Saturday, but we feel a little aggrieved with the ride on Skelton’s bumper horse! Dust down, stick to the process (and don’t chase).
We thought we’d have our own Christmas gamble today but despite her going to run to her merit, she is going to need a bit more work to get over the line in front so we will wait to back her. We’re going to tick all the boxes:
Today we’re playing:
13.45 DISGUISEDLIMIT
Yard form a slight worry but this lad looks the one to be on in this race. He’s very, very well bred and ran on eye-catchingly last time out. Despite the yard form, they target Muss and have sent their runners a long way to compete today. 6/4 a full stake.
15.25 SMART CASUAL
Half stake on this lad who we have backed before. He got chinned in this race two years ago and December seems to be his time of year albeit without ever winning. he will love, love, love the ground and surely had to get his head in front soon - should be today. 7/2 a half bet.
19.30 TWILIGHT MADNESS
Scooted up last time off a low mark and he remains well in for connections who are going for the AW bonus. 5/4 deserving of a full stake.
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