Equinties - Mullins bingo

Gm Equinauts

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

DELETED TARGET 

Usually, the ‘Willie Mullins Bingo’ term begins to do the rounds on Racing X in the weeks leading up to the Cheltenham Festival but this year we got an early ‘treat’ as IMPAIRE ET PASSE hit the headlines yesterday.

At about 6pm yesterday, Racing X thought they had cottoned onto running plans for IMPAIRE ET PASSE as owner Simon Munir said their Ballymore winner was “in great form” ahead of his trip to Cheltenham on Saturday for the Grade 2 Unibet Hurdle. 

However, three hours later, that tweet was deleted. 

Before the tweet was taken off Racing X, IMPAIRE ET PASSE was quickly cut in from 6/4 to 4/7 with some bookmakers, but by the end of play on Monday evening he was back out to even money with Paddy Power. Furthermore, stablemate LOSSIEMOUTH was cut into 9/4 for the Unibet Hurdle. 

Here’s the issue for Mullins and subsequent ante-post backers of IMPAIRE ET PASSE ahead of this weekend, the boss of Closutton has a few races in the UK with entries, notably the Unibet Hurdle (IMPAIRE ET PASSE, LOSSIEMOUTH, and GALA MARCEAU) and the Grade 2 Yorkshire Rose Mares’ Hurdle over at Doncaster (ASHROE DIAMOND, GALA MARCEAU, and LOSSIEMOUTH).

All of these horses are likely to have a run before the Festival, but they all have multiple different options over the next few weeks. The mares have the option between Doncaster and the Grade 3 Quevega Mares’ Hurdle, though both GALA MARCEAU and ASHROE DIAMOND have seemingly been talked up for Doncaster for a long time, whereas IMPAIRE ET PASSE could take in the Unibet Hurdle, Irish Champion Hurdle, Red Mills, and Limestone Lad or even a step up to three miles for the Galmoy Hurdle.

If we were guessing, LOSSIEMOUTH might come to the Unibet Hurdle to give her good time to rest before the Mares’ Hurdle in March, IMPAIRE ET PASSE is an unknown, and then split the two mares between Doncaster and the Quevega.

But, after all that, we have no clue who goes where and to be quite honest - don’t really care.

LITMUS TEST

As for Trials Day on Saturday, which should be a brilliant card, there will be a few horses staking their Festival claims, notably DATSALRIGHTGINO who has the potential of the Cheltenham Gold Cup or Grand National. 

The 8yo was put up 11lbs for his Coral Gold Cup success to a mark of 159, which would make the Grand National difficult, so Jamie Snowden is looking to assess his options based on Saturday. 

He said: "He's unexposed as a staying chaser and his one attempt at it resulted in him winning the Coral Gold Cup, which was brilliant. He's got to step forward again, but hopefully he can do.

"He looks wonderful and is in great shape. We'll find out if he's up to this."

FERGAL’S FUTURE

It’s no secret the trajectory Fergal O’Brien has been on over the last few years. Since the yard changed focus and brought in a few better horses – and a lot more of them – they have seen a world of success which has included three straight seasons of 100+ winners. 

O’Brien and the whole team at Ravenswell Farm are on an upward curve and are bound to be consistently fighting at the highest level in the near future, and one horse who could do that for them is DYSART ENOS. 

O’Brien and the race planning team have made a point of keeping her away from Graded contests in order to keep her penalty-less for the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival which is why they are running her at Doncaster on Sunday.

She is a general 4/1 shot for her big day in March and looks like a fine figure of a mare who will probably be jumping a fence next season.

CRAMBO is another who is looking to give O’Brien his first Cheltenham Festival success and he is still planning to head to the Stayers’ Hurdle as a fresh horse. 

One of their younger brigade that won’t be heading to Cheltenham in March is TRIPOLI FLYER after his Lingfield bumper success as he is being saved for the Grade 2 bumper at Aintree on Grand National Day. 

NEWBURY PREVIEW

12.50 MAIDEN HURDLE

FASOL is short in the market and reps the formidable colours of Nicholls and BMG owner Bryan Drew (and friend). Fresh from France, that hasn’t stopped many of the young imports Nicholls has raced. Versatile on ground. 

NAVAJO INDY is up next at 9/2. He was a bet for us lto, but bumped into a Venetia horse in her Venetia Wonderland spell of slop winners. He is a full bro to NAVAJO PASS, who was a very nice hurdler. Tom has brought this one back to the scene of his maiden (and only) win Newbury. 

ARTHURIAN FABLE has got to be one of the only 98 rated flat horses not to have won. Bad race planning on Meehan’s part. With Bandy (a good trainer who should have had a winner yesterday!) there are horses better bred for the jumps job today. 

The other pedigrees to note are Skeltons full brother the LAC DE CONSTANCE in BE AWARE and Derham’s THE BLUEBERRY ONE by mighty BLUE BRESIL and out of a fast ground winning more for the same owner/breeder. 

Verdict: we’re going to stick with NAVAJO INDY. He’s won here before, race fit and jumps like a buck. 9/2 looks an ew to nothing.

13.25 MAIDEN HURDLE II

The second division of the hurdle see’s the form horse of all the entries top of the market in INTO THE PARK. Last seen running well behind EPATANTE’s niece JOYEUSE. That could work out good form. 

When the market speaks for Lavelle’s horses, you listen. TWO TO TANGO is being well backed here. Emma knows the family well have trained the mum and all the half siblings. Despite being winners dam side, they’re of a lowly rating so you’d think this lad has limited ability but will win handicaps. 

Skeltons is well bred but might need the experience. Connections have landed a couple of big gambles recently, last one in NURSE SUSAN, so watch the market. 

Hendo’s has average form and drifting - telling. 

Jeremy Scott’s horse are running well and bumper winner DIESEL LINE has the ability to run well should he jumps better. 

The rest look to be ones for handicapping.

Verdict: INTO THE PARK ran well against two well bred horses with weight allowances. With his experience and evident ability, should be hard to beat today at 10/3.

14.00 JUNIOR NOVICE HURDLE

We’ll keep this one short and stick with the basics - find the best bred as most towards bottom of market can’t win (bar KADIWO who looks like he’s out for ‘education’). 

The best bred is KALIF D’AIRY for Gary Moore. The yard love collecting pots here and if this lad takes to jumping (he’s bred to) then he could bolt up in this against a weak fave.

Verdict: We’re all over KALIF D’AIRY here at 8’s.

14.35 NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE

A big, muddling field, we’ll highlight the more interesting ones only. 

It’s rare for Newbury shareholder Hendo to not come away with a winner and the market suggests he has one of the better chances here with market leader BLAIREGOWRIE. We think the market has this wrong though and is one to take on. Moderate form and moderately bred. 

Lavelle’s KINGS THRESHOLD went off fave for his chase debut at Kempton and should have got closer to the winner but for Bellamy letting the race get away from him in the home turn. Up in trip, he should be the fave for this and looks good at 11/2. 

If we’re finding the horses the market has wrong st the top of the market, what about towards the lower end of market? 

Well, OFF TO A FLYER is very interesting. Drops in class and steps up in trip which should be a benefit (won over three miles over hurdles). He was an expensive £180k point winner who now now looks reasonably well-handicapped on recent form within the last year.

Verdict: On form we like Lavelles KINGS THRESHOLD. Tizzard’s could be a speccy big priced play for this who like that sort of thing. 

15.10 is a mine field. No interest in this race. 

15.45 is limited value with Moore’s taking the majority of the market in a 6 runner race. Moore’s could be hard to beat if in same form as his last Newbury romp. 

BUMPER

A tough one to read, we’ll stick the best bred.

Heading the market is DOCTOR KILDARE. The market says this is Hendo’s Newbury winner today. Well related and well backed 3’s into 15/8. Owners like targeting bumpers.

KAP BOY is a lto newsletter winner. Carries a pen on that basis.

JURANCON looked very good lto at Chepstow beating a good field. Surprised he’d drifting.

JOB is a well bred and getting a bit of market attention - 20’s into 11’s. Will have to leave his bumper form behind but with the right trainer to do that.

Verdict: The market is shouting for Hendo’s DOCTOR KILDARE and on breeding he looks a machine. The danger is JURANCON.

RISK ON

A couple of plays today below. We will watch the market for Moore’s KALIF D’AIRY - if he drifts, he’s not winning. If he gets backed, he could sh*t in.

12.5 NAVAJO INDY & 13.25 INTO THE PARK

Small 17/1 ew double.

14.45 NO TACKLE

Pedigree pick here. The horses above him aren’t as well related as this one and we feel there is more to come over fences. His mum was a good chase winner, his ill fated half bro was rated 130 and if you look to second dam, his page is littered with chase winners. You’ll have to ignore his last run but a Llewellyn horse won recently having been pulled up. Webber’s horse the danger and getting backed. NO TACKLE is 10.0 on the machine. He either wins or comes out the back so win only.

16.20 DOCTOR KILDARE

Word is he’s a bit small but works well. That doesn’t matter too much in bumpers, don’t forget OCEAN WIND was tiny! He gets loads of weight and might be hard to peg back against the bigger field.

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