Equinties - mixed reviews

Author

BGP Capital
November 27, 2023

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

A lot of action to cover and a lot of big (under) performances to make sense of, but first…

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HEADLINE ROUND UP

MEMORIAL FOR BRASSIL

Yesterday’s Grade 1 John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase looked to be one to savour ahead of its start time at 14.30 with two main contenders in Cheltenham Gold Cup winner GALOPIN DES CHAMPS and Punchestown Gold Cup winner FASTORSLOW out to settle some unfinished business. 

The race brilliant in both spectacle and the reaction it caused.

It was Punchestown Gold Cup winner FASTORSLOW who got it done, fairly easily in the end, to prove the doubters, the bookies and the Willie Mullins fan boys that his Punchestown victory was certainly NO fluke. 

Starting with the winner (before we get onto the reactions), absolutely nothing can be taken away from FASTORSLOW and if anything, he should be given plenty more credit than he has already received owed to the manner of his wins. 

He didn’t have any hiccups at his fences, jumping like a stag and travelled at a high cruising speed over a shorter trip than he’s used to, with after burners to boot. 

The books, who gave him away at 9’s for that race have now squeezed him into 5/1 for the Gold Cup in March and it looks like the Savills at Christmas is next on the agenda for him. 

Right, now let’s talk about GALOPIN DES CHAMPS. 

As usual, Racing X was full of opinion:

The suggestion that last years Gold Cup has taken it’s toll is easy enough to come to tbf, as bar ROYALE PAGAILLE, the form line has taken some huge knocks.

And it’s not like we haven’t seen big races take it’s toll before - the ALTIOR vs CYRNAME battle at Ascot back in ‘19 a case in point - those two were never the same again.

But, whatever anyone thinks, it’s mere speculation. We’re best to leave the theory down to the two who know best - Mullins and Townend. No one was more concerned than Willie Mullins and Paul Townend with Paul commenting GDC felt lifeless under him. 

He didn’t jump well during the race and when asked to pick up, he didn’t find much on the approach to the last and after the last. Willie had said that in the build up to the race he was in good order - an off day maybe? 

Let’s not forget, these big horses are so hard to get fit so it’s expected he will come on for that blow and will almost certainly upped in trip back to three miles. Let’s not write these horses off just yet.

Also, his last two losses have come thanks to FASTORSLOW. There’s an easy argument that FASTORSLOW could just be Ireland’s new jumps monster!

Knowing our like he will be… and we got him beat in the Ultima! 

FUEL TO THE ‘GOLD CUP’ FIRE

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS’ defeat at Punchestown was not the only shake-up to this year’s Gold Cup market as BRAVEMANSGAME was beaten for the second time this season in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase adding fuel to both the speculation that the Gold Cup has lefts its mark and the ante-post market. 

ROYALE PAGAILLE, who boasts an incredible record around Haydock, was the horse who put up the fight to Paul Nicholls’ stable star with the Grand National winner, CORACH RAMBLER, a staying-on third and last year’s winner, PROTEKTORAT, a distant fourth. 

This run is slightly different to GALOPIN DES CHAMPS as BRAVEMANSGAME was race-fit and Nicholls reported in the week that he was in brilliant form, so, as the boss of Ditcheat said post-race, there were “no excuses” for the run. 

He travelled like his usual self, but didn’t find anything for pressure and in honesty, it was a fairly weak performance. He will still head to the King George and has just over a month to rest and recuperate which puts him in a different situation to what he had to do 12 months ago.

Both the losses of GALOPIN DES CHAMPS and BRAVEMANSGAME have opened up the market for this year’s Gold Cup with GDC a general 10/3-shot, BRAVEMANSGAME at 16/1, FASTORSLOW at 5/1, and GERRI COLOMBE now 4/1.

NEW DAWN

Sticking with Haydock, one of the standout performances away from the Graded action was the success of GREY DAWNING in the £50,000 Graduation Chase over 2m5f. 

Like a lot of his chasing stablemates – notably SAIL AWAY who runs this weekend at Newbury – the gallant grey jumped with authority to put aside GAILLARD DU MESNIL, the Grand National third, and APPLE AWAY, a Grade 1-winning hurdler.

GREY DAWNING was well-fancied by connections to run well in the Sefton Novices Hurdle that APPLE AWAY won before coming down at the ninth and he was good on his reappearance at Exeter behind STAY AWAY FAY and THE CHANGING MAN in a time where the Dan Skelton stable were a bit out of form. 

The Grade 2 Hampton Novices’ Chase at Warwick on Classic Chase Day – a race won by THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE and NEXT DESTINATION in the past - has been highlighted as a potential target for the progressive six-year-old. 

SHREWD MOVE  

Shadwell Estates have decided to relocate the entirety of their British stallion roster from Nunnery Stud in Norfolk to Beech House Stud in Newmarket. 

The 230-acre Beech House Stud already has the recently-retired MOSTAHDAF as one of its residents, however, he is set to be joined by BAAEED and MOHAATHER in a place that once had CREPELLO and ST PADDY as inhabitants.

Explaining the reason for the move, racing manager Angus Gold said: “We found that having the stallions in Norfolk was just too far for potential clients to go as it was at least an extra half an hour up the road. If people were in town for the sales or the races they did not have the time to visit Nunnery Stud, so hopefully moving the operation to Beech House will work better.”

YOUNG BLOOD

 

15.50 LUDLOW

This is an incredibly interesting, but equally tough bumper to read with lots of nice enough pedigree’s on display made harder by the fact they’re all girls.

In typical Noel Fehily syndicate fashion ASMINE BLISS has been smashed up to fave from 10’s. Took three goes to win her point and her pedigree, despite several winners in the immediate dam side, is fairly moderate.

METKAYINA is an Irish raider - probably come over to try land a weak race, this isn’t it. Race fitness on her side though.

JENA D’OUDAIRIES is drifting 4’s out to 7’s which is interesting because she has one of the nicer pedigree’s in this. Dam was placed in two bumpers and JENA is a half to a flat and jumps winner. Ignoring drift, she’s a live contender and Nicholls farms bumpers (landed our Saturday NAP).

Harry Fry’s ARMATHIA is by CITYSCAPE who often produce massive, slow ground gallopers. Things could happen a little too quickly for this girl today but her experience will help.

The Skelton’s are repped by CHATTY CHICH who is a half to the yards good horse LE MILOS. Another big drifter, 5’s out to 8’s. On blood, she’s another live contender with Nicholls’.

There are better pedigree’s than BING BELLE, she doesn’t have a chance.

SOLID SILVER reps plot king SMP. Was gambled lto at Lingfield (aw bumper), she’ll get done for lack of stamina again today.

Fergal hasn’t been hitting bumpers like he did last year and this girl ran poorly on debut. Related to a load of winners, she should improve with time but probably not the one to be on today.

RED PANDA brings a fascinating story to this race. She is the first daughter of the darling of Charlie Longsdon’s yard, SNOW LEOPARDESS. Everyone who knows racing, knows SNOW LEOPARDESS. A beautiful grey who has picked up Listed and Graded wins in all disciplines - bumpers, hurdles and chases including the famous Becher chase.

She was only running in March, last seen finishing just out the places in Cheltenham’s XC and now only 8 months on, her first daughter RED PANDA makes her much anticipated debut today.

Check this out. It’s not often you see mum and daughter working together, a remarkable and rarely seen event in horse racing:

Very unusual! Fox-Pitt’s Grand National runner works on the gallops alongside her daughter

It is virtually unheard of to have a racehorse galloping next to their daughter, but Snow Leopardess, who caught the nation’s imagination in the run up to the 2022 Grand National, and her filly, Red Panda, have proven that it is possible

RED PANDA is the standout pedigree in this race.

TWYFORD’S DIAMOND might be too slow for this race, she is pred for fences over a lot further than todays test.

ARCADIAN ROSE is massive price given her trainer and pedigree. She’s by a sire who loves producing bumper winners and she is related to PROTEKTORAT. Nice page for this race, and at 40’s, it demonstrates the depth of this race.

The 5 others, on pedigree, might all struggle.

Verdict: Several have strong chances in this, it’s probably the deepest bumper we have previewed yet. Ignoring prices (which isn’t always a good idea in bumpers) the shortlist is JENA D’OUDAIRIES 8/1, RED PANDA 20/1 and ARCADIAN ROSE 40/1 with the final vote going to RED PANDA to keep up the family tradition. In the above article, Charlie openly expressed her backwardness, but that was in October ‘22 so one year on, we’re gambling on the chance she is more forward with another summer on her back. A hedge might be needed but the market will organise itself at 15.40 and will provide more clues as to which filly in this carries the most expectation- it will most likely be Nicholls’.

TODAYS BEST STATS

This section was on fire last week. There are only two meetings on today with only one standout stat for Henry Daly in the 13.40. Henry hasn’t had a runner in this race for 5 years but did win it in ‘16 and ‘17. Today he goes for the long awaited hat trick with BRAGANZA BAY 7/1.

RISK ON

We’ll have a small, speculative play on RED PANDA in the bumper with a further small stake on the below single:

12.35 THE FAMOUS FIVE

We’ve always backed Venetia’s this time of year, in fact, we nick named this time of year Venetia Wonderland…but for some reason, we completely missed the early departure of the Venetia train this season and as a result, missed most of her winners. So as not to miss them all, we think this expensive lad is worth a wager today. A 250k recruit from France, he’s been markedly dropped in trip which suits on pedigree. There are reasons to take on the others. Small bet on a tricky days racing at 5/2.

We think KATEIRA in the 14.35 is leverage. She got stuck in the mud lto but before that looked class. She is the best horse in this race today, by a long way.

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