Equinties - Milton's mess

February 27, 2023

Equinties

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Gm Equinauts

Well, despite the prices, the bad reffing, dubious score cards and that 'slip', Tommy Fury beat Jake Paul on points last night.

I'd like to think I won't ever pay for something like this again (and help further line the Paul brothers pockets) but I know I will because what else are you gonna do on a Sunday evening after a bad gamble on an Alan King yak!?

Let' dive in.

Headline roundup

Gamble landed

In a time when Ronan McNally has been surrounding the news for his infamous gambles and handicapping of horses, the master of handicap chases continued to do what he does best on Saturday as KITTY’S LIGHT landed the Eider Chase at Newcastle on Saturday. 

The seven-year-old was off his lowest mark (132) for over two years having finished second in the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase off 140 and Scottish National off 143 last season. 

Williams’ gelding is entered for the Midlands National, but we could be seeing him in the Scottish National instead, a race the stable won last year with WIN MY WINGS. 

Nicholls’ Graded double

It was a double delight for the Champion Trainer on Saturday as he scooped up both the Pendil Novices’ Chase and Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton.

Starting with his earlier success, SOLO was inch-perfect over fences and ground out victory from DATSALRIGHTGINO to land his second Kempton win.

Over an hour later, it was the turn of RUBAUD to bring home the bacon for Ditcheat as the novice bounced back from his Betfair Hurdle disappointment in the Dovecote.

Aintree will be taken in both both rather than Cheltenham.

British juveniles in the mud

It was a punting nightmare for both British backers and Milton Harris on Saturday as Irish raider NUSRET hammered the final nail into this year’s crop of British juvenile hurdlers.

The Joseph O’Brien-trained four-year-old managed to fight off PERSEUS WAY to win well following SCRIPWRITER’s major disappointment - trainer Milton Harris had £1000 EW on with Coral for the Triumph pre-race. Ouch!

NUSRET was the best part of 20 lengths behind both LOSSIEMOUTH and BLOOD DESTINY earlier in the season, the two market principles for this year’s Triumph Hurdle, and he has just kicked the British charge into touch. That is form that us Brits don’t want to see!

NUSRET is unlikely for Cheltenham in two weeks, though he does have an entry for the Triumph.

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Bumper preview

Ayr

Big stat for the Olly Murphy's in this, he's 4 from 5 in Ayr bumpers and really should be 5 from 5 had his last runner got a better ride. The stat is bullish but the money is bearish and he's drifted from 15/8 out to 11/4.

The money is for ESPRIT DU POTIER who hosed up in an okay bumper lto. He gets weight for his age plus a further 7 off for the jockeys claim meaning he's basically running loose. The weight difference here might play a big part in this race.

Crawford bro's send one in GIACOSA. Yard always to be feared in British bumpers and they go with the right blood.

Nick Alexander's horses are in good form and he sends a threat in PRESIDENT SCOTTIE. A half to bumper winner GLOBAL FAME, he was by bumper king FAME AND GLORUY (RIP) so probably better suited to a bumper than this lad but I wouldn't be drawing a line through him.

I don't think the others can beat these four who take the top 4 places in the betting market. Who wins? Well, ESRPIT DU POTIER did do it easily lto but that's now his second rpr under 100 meaning if there was anything above average in this race, he's very vulnerable.

If Olly Murphy's sells off to 4's he might be a dirty ew as the pick to follow the stats.

Today's best stats

A per bumper preview, the most bullish stat today is for Olly Murphy's I AM NO RISK in the Ayr bumper where he's 4 from 5 (should be 5 from 5).

Botti is 2 from this season at Wolves and sends SEXY REXY for the 16.00 who was running on well lto behind a plot job for the Johnstons (big recent form boost). Be warned: this is a 0-55 and anything could be hiding in this.

Risk On

Not much of interest today.