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Equinties - matter of fact
BGP Capital
December 18, 2025
Gm Equinauts
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Let’s dive in!
HEADLINE ROUNDUP
MATTER OF FACT
It was never a certainty that FACT TO FILE was always going to head to Leopardstown, but it made sense. With GALOPIN DES CHAMPS still yet to be seen this season, he looked like the number one Willie Mullins horse for the Savills Chase at Christmas. After all, he did finish second in the race last year:
And then there’s GAELIC WARRIOR, who looks to be going to Kempton at Christmas. They were 1-2 in the John Durkan, and it makes sense to split these two good horses up.
Well, this theory has gone down the toilet, as Frank Berry and Willie Mullins has confirmed FACT TO FILE will be targeted at the King George.
There are a few angles to this, but firstly, the move is nice for racing fans. We get to see FACT TO FILE vs GAELIC WARRIOR vs JANGO BAIE vs THE JUKEBOX MAN vs DJELO.
Holy mackerel, what a lovely race. As for why they’ve made the decision, that’s the thinker.
Is Mullins that worried about Dan Skelton’s lead in the British trainers championship that he wants to send two bullets to Kempton? Does he want to win it that bad for the third year in a row? Probably not. It may be a consideration, but Mullins cares more about what race is right for the horse, and it seems like connections think the King George is better for him.
Patrick Mullins said: "They're both 100 per cent. I ride Gaelic Warrior at home and he's come out of the John Durkan every bit as well as he did going into it. From what we can see, they've both bounced out of the race. I think with Willie, anything is possible, but the King George looks the ideal race for them both.
"I wouldn't mind, however, seeing Gaelic Warrior at Leopardstown over three miles in the Savills Chase. I rode him there over two miles last season and thought he ran well.
"It's a dry track, but I just don't think he was quick enough at that trip. While his record there suggests he's not at his best, I wouldn't rule him out over three, but that's just my guess.
"They're two fantastic horses and you'd pinch yourself to have them. They're two fantastic races, and we'll have to see how everything is."
How GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is recovering from his early season setback also has to be considered. Having talked about him as a possible for Tramore on New Year’s Day, the same race that AL BOUM PHOTO won plenty of times, he now seems to be on course for the Savills, which has to be a positive. Maybe they are happy sending him and a combination of NICK ROCKETT, GRANGECLERE WEST, and I AM MAXIMUS, but would you want to back GDC first time out after his known setback? You’d have to be brave, for sure.
JP McManus is also definitely a factor. INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN is going to the Savills, and he should be a much better horse at Christmas. The benefit of a run, three miles, and improved stable form should seem him go better. For this reason, and due to the fact that JP has never won the King George, this could also be the reason why he’s going, and the more we look at it, the more this theory probably holds water.
If Mullins isn’t overly bothered on which race he goes to, he may as well side with a guy like JP and his wishes.
Anyway, we now have a cracking race to look forward to at Kempton. How will the Savills look? With a returning GDC, INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN, and maybe even FASTORSLOW, it could be quite competitive without it having a very short favourite. Lovely.
GOOD FORM
The general consensus from Friday at Cheltenham was that OLD PARK STAR was a fair tool… in a good way. Some people even started making CONSTITUTION HILL comparisons. Steady on.
The one main question from the day was about the form? KINGSTON QUEEN sets a fine standard, but OUR BOY STAN disappointed, and so did MINELLA MARATHON.
Yesterday, however, he got a bit of a form boost, as UN SENS A LA VIE bolted up at Ludlow:
He’s a pretty smart horse who was probably a touch overhyped in the early parts of this season. He went off 5/2 for the Grade 2 won by FORTUNE DE MER at Cheltenham in October, and he then lost at Kempton last month. The Twisters have certainly given him plenty of running so far this year (classic), but yesterday seemed to get his season back on track, and they have some lofty targets for him. Willy Twiston-Davies said: “It was all very straightforward and I’m sure when he gets a faster pace and something to carry him along we’ll see even more improvement. He's a lovely horse to have and he's got a lot of talent.
“The William Hill Hurdle at Newbury looks a contest that would really suit him, and we’ll work back from that. It’s a race we’ve won before with novices Splash Of Ginge and Ballyandy."
He’s rated 125, and he may get a few from the handicapper for that. To be fair, even if he isn’t Grade 1 quality, he could do some serious damage if a mark in the high 120s. He has to be on the William Hill Hurdle shortlist.
It’s also nice to see him give a bit of substance to the form of OLD PARK STAR. Hendo almost seemed a bit reserved in his chat after Friday’s win, almost as if the performance came as a major shock, which is never a huge positive but the lads at Sevenbarrows are all over him for the Supreme. We were at the Queens Arms this week, Hendo’s local pub in Lambourn and several of Hendo’s work riders were in there telling everyone to get on!
Anyway, a bit of a form boost to back up what our eyes said is nice, and we do hope that OLD PARK STAR can be a horse who gives the Brits a fighting chance in the Prestbury Cup…After all, BAMBINO FEVER didn’t do much to enhance her rep earlier this week, so the division doesn’t look overly strong right now!
NO CHELTENHAM
And finally, another performance to highlight from yesterday was the one of KADASTRAL at Newbury for Dan Skelton, and the way he’s planning this horse going forward is indicative of what he’s like as a trainer.
It’s easy to tell that he’s come through the Paul Nicholls camp. He’s competitive, he’d die for his horses, and he’s happy to come along ‘slowly slowly’ with them if needs be, but he also has something that Nicholls has probably lacked over the last few years.
He’s really not afraid to have a go, and he doesn’t put any unnecessary pressure on the horse.
That may seem silly, as horses can’t feel pressure, but horses like MYDADDYPADDY have done the talking on the track, rather than through the mouth of his trainer. From minute one, Skelton has said he’ll be a Supreme horse, and he’s obviously excited by him, but with the same measure of reservedness we saw Hendo display with his one.
As for KADASTRAL, even with three months to go until Cheltenham, Skelton has all but ruled out Cheltenham for him, because he doesn’t think he’s the type of horse for Prestbury Park at this stage of his career. He said: “He's a very talented horse. We've seen a lot of improvement, but I'll look after him now.
"I don't think you'll see him at Cheltenham – he's more likely to wait and go to Aintree. That's not because he's not Cheltenham standard – I feel he is – but he's a tall and narrow horse, and the right thing to do is to tread carefully as a novice hurdler."
Skelton knows his onions, and it is pretty good to see him thinking this far in advance. It would be easy to plan this horse to Cheltenham due to his ability, but if he’s not the right horse for the place, you’ve got to let your ego go away and do what’s right for the horse.
Anyway, KADASTRAL looks like a decent one, and LEGAL WEAPON (2nd) will probably get a nice handicap mark to exploit this season.
KRIPTICJIM and TRIAL BY JURY were also quite nice in the next race. The whole day at Newbury seemed full of good horses, and the form of these races could look quite good by the end of this season.
BLUE BRESIL
NH sire BLUE BRESIL sadly passed away yesterday at the age of 20yo.
He produced the NH world beaters in CONSTITUTION HILL and ROYALE PAIGAILLE but also had many progeny filling the fields in many of the big handicaps we watch day in and day out. If you’re a regular punter, we’re quite sure you’ll have bet plenty of his son’s and daughters.
He will be sorely missed in the sire ranks and his passing makes you wish CONSITUTION HILL still had his tackle on!
Luckily, his roster over in Ireland was so strong we will continue to be represented on track for many years to come.
RISK ON
GOLDEN VIEW… that is all!
It was always going to be a brave bet against the well fancied and heavily punted Varian horse but we knew how good Godolphin’s lad was and there are a few more to come…
Exeter will be bottomless today but the racing is quite hard other than THANYOUANDPLEASE in the 15.00 who we think can be used as lev for another bet.
Eyes on a potential gamble on ALDERLEY CHARLIE in the 14.30. Janes might be tough to beat but trainer Polly Grundy landed a big gamble with the mare of her runner… at Exeter too.
Our only play today is:
20.30 DIGUB
Shaggas bookends Chelmsford tonight with two by SEA THE STARS and although we think they can both win, this girl is preferred for the single. She’s now stepped up in trip, unexposed and bred to be well handicapped if this mark. Shaggas in form. 11/4 a standard stake.
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