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Equinties - markets for a pro
BGP Capital
March 03, 2026
Gm, Equinauts
The Cheltenham markets are wide open and with the deep liquidity available, they are there to be taken advantage of…
If bet the right way.
Let’s dive in.
HEADLINE ROUNDUP
MARKETS FOR A PRO
The Cheltenham Festival remains the pinnacle of jumps racing and one of the biggest betting spectacles in the sporting calendar… blah blah blah.
It hasn’t felt like that for a long time. It’s simply been the Willie Mullins parade. But the mood in the markets heading into this years Festival feels markedly different from last year.
Last year, punters were faced with markets headed by short-priced favourites – many odds-on – that Blogger certified ‘this will not be beat’ banker.
Whilst some delivered (think LOSSIEMOUTH, KOPEK DES BORDES and DINOEBLUE), the Festival also delivered huge spectacular upsets, with punters taking to their wheelbarrows to carry out the pieces of their broken hearts, and not the cash loads they were intended for.
2026 is exciting. This years racing has depth and for a long time, the most genuinely competitiveness across almost every race for whilst there were seven odds-on favourites across the 28 races – the joint-highest total in the last decade alongside 2021 and 2024, this year, the picture has slipped.
Bar, FACT TO FILE in the RyanAir, the markets represent what the bookmakers are calling ‘seriously competitive’. We bet they’re licking their lips!
The shortest horses are OLD PARK STAR in the Supreme, LULAMBA in the Arkle, THE NEW LION in the Champion Hurdle, MAJBOROUGH in the Champion Chase and TEAHUPOO in the Stayers (how!?). Even where favourites like OLD PARK STAR and LULAMBA sit below 2/1, very credible arguments can be made for the field of live dangers at single-figure odds looking up at them.
The competitiveness of this years Festival can be seen in the RyanAir market. FACT TO FILE was electric last time out and no one will forget how he sauntered to victory in last race on the bridle, but is still a backable price!
Why the change? Several factors have combined to create a more balanced book but the most obvious one is we, as punters, don’t now who the new superstars are yet. With the likes of CONSITUTION HILL out and GALOPN DES CHAMPS seemingly on the decline, it’s the turn of the youngsters, the LULAMBA’s and KOPEK DES BORDES’ who are all so very much unxposed.
Those of you looking to play the “naps of the week” perm’s, you’re gonna go bust quickly if you don’t play smarter.
There is absolutely NOTHING wrong with the lotto acca’s as long as they are staked relative to your bank size and typical single bet - in proportion, tiny. You really want to be chucking beer money at them, something so small you don’t need to record it or remember it.
This is the year of the singles and ew doubles. The pro’s way.
Wait for the day too. Read the newsletter in the morning, take a view and then pull the trigger before the race. Don’t worry too much about the prices this year, they will change but they’re likely to do in your favour - bookmakers will want to be competitive and with the nature and depth of this years racing, prices will be pushed out in a bid for more business.
In short, this is your year to play like a pro and get a Festival up on the bookmakers. It is going to be a feeding frenzy and your bets will be taken so make sure they count. Be clinical in execution, bet less but when you do, bet the singles or ew doubles for they are what hurt the bookmakers most!
SIR MARK
It’s not a big one for Sir Mark, so to speak, but we always wish the Plot King a happy birthday every time it comes around - happy 78th birthday, Sir Mark!
Here’s one of those ‘classic’ Sir Mark stories:
MARINE DOWN
MARINE NATIONALE is OUT of the Cheltenham Festival!
The horse, whose trainer Barry Connell couldn’t help but bad mouth the opposition, has been struck down by a sore neck the week before the Festival. For many, he was seen as a good thing owed to the jumping frailties of his market rival MAJBOROUGH.
This leaves the market now dominated by MAJBOROUGH at 4/5 with L’EAU DU SUD in tow at 100/30.
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