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Equinties - market makes sense
BGP Capital
December 02, 2025
Gm Equinauts
People might get tired of reading about CONSTITUTION HILL (we’ve talked a bit about him again today) but the racing press do it for good reason,
PEOPLE F*CKING LOVE HIM.
They love him so much, they’d back him against the worlds best flat horse, CALANDAGAN.
We will continue to give the people what they want, chat about CONSITUTION HILL.
Let’s dive in!
HEADLINE ROUNDUP
THE ULTIMATE REPLACEMENT
The fallout from Saturday’s Fighting Fifth, especially in relation to CONSTITUTION HILL, will be longer than typical, a given considering he’s the mot famous horse in training.
For Nicky Henderson, the next few questions, asked repeatedly by hundreds of reports over and over were already going to be fairly obvious, each answer less so.
Does Hendo retire CONSTITUTION HILL? If not, what does he do with him and does he have a replacement for him in the division?
As always, the market has potentially helped us answer these questions.
So, the replacement could be SIR GINO, as Henderson said: “It has crossed our mind over the weekend. I need a race for him around about Christmas. I was thinking about the Desert Orchid on December 27. I've always had that in mind, but we're not making any targets with Sir Gino. We're going to let him take us to when he's ready, rather than us force him to be ready for a day.
"I'm not going to deny that it has crossed my mind over the weekend that the obvious race to start him in, if you're going to start him over Christmas, would be the Christmas Hurdle. It's a possibility but no more."
Henderson has also ruled out immediate retirement for CONSTITUTION HILL, which is good to see but still quite odd that there was still such a strong market move on SIR G. Does that mean the flat for him?
SIR GINO coming back over hurdles is an interesting idea and although that might annoy punters, it’s a sound one for the horse and here’s why.
Henderson speaking so forward about the horse is obviously brilliant because it only means that he’s been doing bits at home, but we can’t forget how serious his injury was.
SIR G isn’t a novice chaser anymore and his only route would be thrust into the Champion Chasing division with only three months to prepare for Cheltenham on the back of a life-threatening issue. Obviously, seeing him win the Desert Orchid, Game Spirit, and Champion Chase this year would be epic, but we know horses (and Henderson) aren’t that simple. They’re not machines, and mixing it straight at the very top may just be too much of an ask, thus making the Christmas Hurdle a sensible place to start.
Given the weak nature the hurdling division has become all of a sudden, the Champion Hurdle scene is prime to have a go at. Most of the horses in it can be asked questions, where as SIR GINO just has the one to answer - his health! And by the sounds of it, that’s not a problem making it all too tempting for Hendo to stick to that route for SIR G with a view of fences next year after a full season under his belt.
We’re sure whatever decision Henderson makes will be the right one (for both horses) as he knows best, but if we were betting on it, we’d guess that Henderson has the Champion Hurdle in mind for SIR GINO.
CALADAGAN CONSEQUENCE
CALADAGAN picked up the Japan Cup in a record time this weekend, but you might not have realised why he was there?
He’s got no nuts. Most horses don’t (they’re a lot easier to deal with without them) so you might think so what? Well, for the top geldings, it restricts them in what races they can run in. For example, the best 3yo geldings can’t run in the Guineas.
And CALADAGAN couldn’t run in the Arc, hence his appearance in Japan.
The no gelding rule was implemented to ensure these races maintained the highest standards with the breeding industry in mind (basically so top colts didn’t get their arses handed to them by geldings lol), but the ironic thing is, this rule has now hurt the Arc.
With CALADAGAN’s absence from the Arc, it means the Arc can’t win Longines World’s Best Horserace award - which means a lot to the French! That award will now likely go to the Japan Cup.
LEAVY CRASH
Remember when Oisin hit the headlines for his car crash in Berkshire? Rumours were ripping through the mill on socials and then the news was finally leaked through a police report. A high status champion jockey who has previously been in hot water for misbehaving is quite clearly the reason it blew up on social media so much (although some would argue it didn’t as much as it should).
Unless you paid a fiver for today’s Racing Post, you probably weren’t aware Joe Leavy crashed his car and is in hospital now.
Hannon’s champion apprentice crashed his car a stones throw from the point Oisin did and like Oisin, Joe and his passengers ended up in hospital. The crash was reported at about 01.30am Sunday morning. No arrests have been made so we shan’t speculate on what they were doing at 1.30am, but but we can imagine Oisin is sitting there wondering why the same heat hasn’t been applied to Joe Leavy.
Joe will be out for a while with a broken jaw and collarbone while the other passengers Bryan Carver and a female are seemingly okay and out of hospital.
RISK ON
Playing a standard stake on todays stat horse doubled with UP THE AGENDA 17.15 paying just over 3/1. Both expected to simply win today.
Hopefully one and done as Southwell looks difficult, so no betting there.
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