Equinties - marine down

Gm Equinauts

Yesterday was a mad day for ante-post punters and we have no shame in saying we’re very smug to have not dipped into the futures markets this year as undoubtedly we’d be carrying L’s right now.

A quick heads up as to our plans for next week, there will be no newsletter next Monday as we prep for Cheltenham. We will aim to get the newsletter out each morning for the Festival no later than 11am.

We will also do some big giveaways for our Fantasy league winners.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

THE INEVITABLE 

The exchanges told us a story yesterday before the news even broke but Seven Barrows put everyone out of our misery as he confirmed that CONSTITUTION HILL will not run in this year’s Champion Hurdle.

But let’s be honest, it was quite clear old CONNY wasn’t running anyway (and people still wanted to back him at 2/1 instead of going to therapy). 

The blood tests came back to Nicky Henderson as unsatisfactory and as such, he is not running in the feature race of the Tuesday. 

This, ultimately, caused many get well soon messages, and because Cheltenham is the place you want to see the best against the best, it is gutting news he won’t be there next week.

He’s seemingly not been right all season and that doesn’t bode well for his future. The Freak of National Hunt racing has only been seen once this year, that was his demolition job at Kempton in the Christmas hurdle. 

Nicky is going to have a job deciding what to do with him from here. 

Now he is out of Tuesdays big race, it looks very much like a freebie for STATE MAN who will probably win if he stands.

Fans are calling for LOSSIEMOUTH to turn up to give STATE MAN a race instead of a procession but that really wouldn’t make sense for Mullins who looks to have two certainties in the Champion Hurdle and the Mares. 

That said, they are teasing the media with the idea. 

LOSSIEMOUTH isn’t the only one who could be rerouted to the Champion Hurdle as Gordon Elliott wants to pop at STATE MAN with IRISH POINT. 

Would he have more chance of winning a Stayers over a Champion? Yes, obviously.

MORE BAD NEWS 

Although they say bad news comes in three’s, we only experienced two bits of Festival-ruining information yesterday (we are so lucky!) as MARINE NATIONALE was also ruled out of Cheltenham. Although Barry Connell said on record that he was in top order and had been working well, a mere 48 hours earlier the trainer found his stable star to be lame and the vet was called in. 

The vet broke the bad news to Connell that he had a “suspensory strain” though “it's not a tear and it's minor”. This upset a few on Racing X!

This has blown the Arkle picture wide open as the 1-2 from the Irish Arkle, IL ETAIT TEMPS and FOUND A FIFTY share the betting at 7/2 a piece. Lots are making cases for a few at a price, and even Ruby Walsh thinks MASTER CHEWY can outrun his odds.

ANTE-POST

With these two bits of news dominating racing media yesterday, not much else was came out which is worthy of including. Well, the only thing is that SEDDON, last year’s Plate Handicap Chase winner, could still turn up to the Festival. 

However, it does bring ante-post betting into the limelight. Again. We’ve long said that ante-post betting is a tough, tough game. According to OddsChecker roughly 10% of Cheltenham ante-post accas had CONSTITUTION HILL in them (we think it’s more) and god knows how many also had MARINE ‘the good thing’ NATIONALE in them as well.

We don’t do much ante-post betting here (although we were supposed to post one Saturday but we’re quite enjoying the drift right now, 14’s out to 16’s for no reason), though it can work at times (we were lucky):

But too much can change. You could want good ground at the Festival, like HEWICK, or you could want really soft ground, like TEAHUPOO. There are too many variables required for a perfect bet, which time can have a huge impact on, this week being a case in point - recent events are enough to put a punter off ante-post punting for life.

If you fancy one ante-post and genuinely see it going off so much shorter on the day, then that’s the value you’re getting for it to survive until flag fall and to still be in rude health.

Therapy for those talking about GAELIC WARRIOR for the King George before the DRF!  

As much as it is a massive, massive shame that both CONSTITUTION HILL and MARINE NATIONALE aren’t at the Festival, it hammers home that these horses are not machines. There is no guarantee they will make the race you want them to run in. There is no guarantee that they will get their desired ground. There is no guarantee the pace of the race will suit them. Take it all one step at a time and try to have all the info available to you before placing a bet.

YOUNG BLOOD

NEWCASTLE BUMPER

This is a really tough bumper with a fair few horses bred for the job. 

LAWRENNY is a weak fave. Bred to love the mud, he doesn’t really hold winners form thus far - this will be his third run now. Maybe he’s a big horse who has taken two runs to get cherry ripe? He will be in the mix. 

We anticipated the Easterbys would back theirs - they always do, and mostly with success tbf! The sire would put us off but the dam side offers hope. 9’s into 4’s suggests they’re expecting him placed at the very least. 

FOREST BLAZE is by KAPGARDE who produce good bumper horses. Dam side suggests better ground needed though? 

LONG TIME LISTENER is by new sire TELESCOPE who is a bit hit and miss. Second dam shows winners so could be anything. 

Walfords second runner is BATTLE BORN LAD. If there are doubts about the ground for his other runner FOREST BLAZE, there aren’t for this one - mud loving pedigree. Just depends if he’s any good! On pedigree alone we think he’s better (for this race) that his shorter priced stable mate. 

MY FAVOURITE SISTER is a half to Cheltenham winner THE REAL WHACKER. Girl against the boys on debut is never easy but she’s clearly got the best pedigree in the race and will like the ground. Not sure if the yard have ever won a bumper? Certainly haven’t in the last 5 years anyway. That’s not to say they don’t try in them - two have placed in bumpers this week. 

The others on pedigree or form will struggle. 

Verdict: the horse to watch is MY FAVOURITE SISTER for Neville who will be looking to win the Gold Cup with  her half brother THE REAL WHACKER next week. If this girl is anything like her half brother than she could win this tough heat. Depends if she is ‘ready’ for today or will she be looked after for bigger days ahead. Of the boys we’d probably side with BATTLE BORN LAD.

RISK ON

Two bad yokes yesterday who massively underperformed versus what was expected of them, no excuses there and apologies for that. We need winners this week. We have one Saturday - probably will be one big bet and done ahead of Tuesday.

We’ll have an ew play on the bumper pick BATTLE BORN LAD with eyes firmly on THE REAL WHACKERS sister for later down the line, to see if she shows anything. Walford’s was 10’s at the time of writing this morning - has been backed into 5.0 exchange, this means our theory suits the money down. Ew play.

15.32 LAZY SUNDAY

Now she isn’t a gamble like last time out, in fact the complete opposite. We backed (in her ‘Gold Cup’) and she fell when about to hose up, so this drift is a concern but we can’t see why she won’t be trying here? Okay, she has top weight against the boys but she’s the best horse in the race, definitely gets the trip and will love the mud when others won’t. The money has come for Venetia’s, in fact it’s shouting he’s going to hack up- tbf the yard is in top form again but trip and ground are a big concern. LAZY SUNDAY is this price for one of two reasons - either she’s not off or the connections behind her are butt hurt after the last failed gamble. It’s probably the former but we’re hoping its the latter (if she was ours, she’d be trying) so we’re going to play her small stakes/lunch money at 6/1 win only. If she comes no where - she’s not off and being saved for an easier mares race where she will she most definitely be handicapped to win. Do not play this horse if you’re going to be upset she has a quiet run.

15.50 GEORDIES DREAM

Has the best recent form and todays conditions will suit on pedigree. Likely to pop up soon and today looks the day. 11/10.

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