Equinties - little impact for stud

Author

BGP Capital
August 15, 2023

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

ACE IMPACT makes his return to racing today in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano…

…which is a baffling decision by Rouget.

Read our thoughts on the race below in todays big race preview.

Lets dive in.

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HEADLINE ROUNDUP

PYLING ON THE ARC DREAM

Following his fair fifth in a hot renewal of the Group 1 King George VI Stakes at Ascot, connections are still prepared to send PYLEDRIVER to the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in October.

The 40/1 shot began his season with a win in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes following his win in the 2022 King George VI Stakes when beating TORQUATOR TASSO, the 2021 Arc winner and 2022 Arc third, by nearly three lengths and because of that, co-trainer William Muir still wants to send him to the season-crowing race in Longchamp.

Muir told the Racing Post: “One of the owners has thrown a little googly in there by suggesting we go straight to the Arc, so we’ll have a chat over the next few days. The horse is in good form though.”

Question to all readers here: do you think he is good enough to win?

In pure facts, he is a winner on good-to-soft twice but has disappointed on soft and he was fairly beaten lto by horses who could reappear in the Arc.

So, if you were the owner of PYLEDRIVER, would you go to the Arc or would you go to a more winnable race?

 

THE BIG MONEY DRAW

Hong Kong has claimed another promising star as Aidan O’Brien revealed that BERTINELLI, his London Gold Cup winner, has run his last race for the yard.

The three-year-old full brother to CITY OF TROY was a good third in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot, a race won by DESERT HERO, who has since won the Group 3 Gordon Stakes at Royal Ascot.

The second from that race, VALIANT KING, was second to VAUBAN in the Ballyroan Stakes, so that form looks very good.

In the same article, O’Brien shared that UNQUESTIONABLE, fourth in Saturday’s Group 1 Phoenix Stakes, will be on the “easy list” having bashed his head into the top of the stalls and lost two shoes on the weekend.

SECOND TILT FOR ELDAR

And finally, the word on the street yesterday is that trainer Roger Varian is considering a tilt at the Irish St Leger with last year’s English St Leger winner ELDAR ELDAROV.

The Dubawi four-year-old has been tried as a stayer in open company this year but has only a seventh in the Gold Cup and fourth in the Goodwood Cup to boast about.

However, Varian is thinking of dropping him in trip and sending him over to Ireland for the €600,000 contest on September 10th, as he said: “I would really like to run him in the Irish St Leger, so it is working out whether he has to run before then. He does have a few options in the next 10 days if he was to run again, or do we go to Ireland with a fresh horse? We just need 48 hours or so to make up our minds.”

If he does go there, there could be a clash against last year’s winner KYPRIOS to think about as Aidan O’Brien is hopeful his star can make a valiant return with less than a month left on the clock.

BIG RACE PREVIEW

GROUP 2 PRIX GUILLAUME D’ORNANO

Jean-Claude Rouget used this race last year as a stepping stone to the Arc for AL HAKEEM but we wouldn't be certain this is the intended route for ACE IMPACT. It looks like he has a lot of speed so both Irish and British Champions Stakes would be more likely.

Todays race lacks the status of an Eclipse or Juddmonte International, so it is a little surprising Jean-Claude has chosen it for his superstar colt. The mile and a quarter event is worth £350k, in comparison the Juddmonte is worth £1m, and unlike the Juddmonte, this race is restricted to 3yo’s only and for ACE IMPACT’s concerns, won’t carry the Group 1 penalty.

Rouget: “I love this race, it’s a Group 1 in disguise… it is not permitted to be a Group 1 because it falls too close to the Juddmonte International at York”.

“The Pattern committee won’t upgrade it but for me it’s a Group 1, with great advantages. The prize money is good, given it’s 80 percent more valuable than it’s status. The horse is very valuable already but it still counts”.

Rouge added: “And I like the race as a springboard for the Autumn. Ace Impact was on the go early in the year at Cagnes but he hasn't had a really busy campaign, and has never really had a hard race. The only time he’s had to really stretch was in the Jockey Club”.

The Prix de Jockey Club was ACE IMPACT’s announcement ion to the world stage when he put in a scintillating performance to power clear by 4 lengths. The performance was backed up with the time as he set a new race record beating SOTTSASS’ time by .27 seconds.

The form also turned out to be very strong with BIG ROCK in second who recently only had INSPIRAL in front of him Gr1 Jacques Le Marois last Sunday (below), fourth FEED THE FLAME won the Gr1 Grand Prix de Paris, fifth EPICTETUS beat NOSTRUM and even eighth CONTINUOUS was 2nd to KINF OF STEEL at Royal Ascot.

The horse his trainer calls Monsieur Sans Souci (Mr Care Free) should have been in the Eclipse and it’s a shame he’s not lining up in the Juddmonte at York but none the less, it’s good to see him back.

The opponent most likely to chase him home is Gr1 winning 2yo AL RIFFA. He made a sedate start to his 3yok campaign after picking up different niggles in the spring. On his seasonal debut he ran okay albeit behind an inferior horse who simply got a good ride. That would have blown the cobwebs off AL RIFFA and O’Brien will be looking for him to improve a stone from that. He’s a big horse who will improve again after today, in our opinion and it won't be easy taking on ACE IMPACT.

VICTORIA ROAD is saddled by Aiden O’Brien, he won the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year beating SILVER KNOTT. We haven't seen him since because he picked up an injury in transport to France so will be ring rusty and has stacks to find.

STRAIGHT by ZARAK won a German Gr2 two starts back beating MR HOLLYWOOD who in turn finished 2nd in the German Derby to FANTASTIC MOON. STRAIGHT went off fave that day and needs to bounce back.

Verdict: We’re really looking forward to ACE IMPACT’s return. It’s such a shame the trainer has picked this easier race over the Juddmonte next week because he could really serve it up to the British and Irish hot shots. This route is actually quite bearish. He’s by CRACKSMAN so never going to be that commercial when he goes to stud and really needs to win a big one beating PADDINGTON…maybe he’ll do it in the Irish Champion Stakes on his next start.

STATS OF THE DAY

The best stay today is for LADY JANE GREY in the 17.05 at Nottingham where Rae Guest is 4 from 7 in these types of raves at track. That said, the fave, BUDDYS BEAUTY looked pretty good last time out and will take some serious topping today if in the same form. We’re betting that.

RISK ON

Balding began to fire up Saturday and we were told STAR RUNNER should win next time. He's getting the squeeze for the 18.30. We quite like Balding’s filly LEAVES OF GRASS too. Small singles and ew double on the pair.

17.05 BUDDYS BEAUTY

Full bet at 2’s. If she’s in the same form as June she’ll take some stopping and prove well-handicapped. Hoping LADY JANE GREY isn't a gamble.