Equinties - lining up for Frankel

Gm Equinauts

The team behind this newsletter are a man down this week but we’ll still try give the people want they want and knock it out the park.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

BUBBLE BURST

There were a few people in the industry hoping that a certain GALA MARCEAU would lay down a marker in the Grade 3 Quevega Mares’ Hurdle yesterday at Punchestown. 

Even trainer Willie Mullins was bullish about the 2/7-shot pre-race as he thought she would be hard to beat, but she could only manage a remote third as HISPANIC MOON won for Henry de Bromhead. 

Although this was a disappointment, take nothing away from the performance of the winner as she is a good mare. On her first start of the season, she put lengths between herself and RIOGA CHOICE - a mare that was running well in a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse last season behind ASHROE DIAMOND before falling - so she has ability. 

She was cut into 16/1 for the Mares’ Hurdle after yesterday and could be a lovely outsider.

As for GALA MARCEAU, we have seen on multiple occasions that horses have a tough time transitioning from a juvenile season to open company. Maybe this is the case for her as her last two runs haven’t been great, so there will be an element of caution surrounding her before backing her again.

FRANKEL PLANS 

Juddmonte’s stud plans for FRANKEL were released yesterday and there are a few interesting ones on the list. The first one of note is that CONCENTRIC, the dam of ENABLE, will visit the legendary stallion. They have produced one offspring to hit the track before - PORTRUSH - who raced twice and won once. 

Amongst the other coverings includes TEONA, a 4,500,000gns purchase from the Tattersalls December Mare Sale, SPECIAL DUTY, the dam of Frankel's stakes winner and Middle Park runner-up TASK FORCE, and BIRD FLOWN, the dam of Irish 2,000 Guineas and Phoenix Stakes winner SISKIN. 

More on his mating plans: https://www.racingpost.com/news/ 

In what is an interesting race for a Thursday, STAFFORDSHIRE KNOT heads the market at odds-on for Gordon Elliott in the Grade 3 Novice hurdle.

We’re not interested in this race as a betting prospect, to follow the success (or not) of the ex-Caldwell horses. 

Bought for €510,000 at the Caldwell Construction Dispersal Sale, he bolted up like a good horse at Down Royal against inferior rivals and he has plenty of ability. 

He comes from the family of MANY CLOUDS so this step up in trip to 2m5f should work in his favour. 

Let’s check what he has to beat…

With conditions set to be soft over 2m5f today, LARGY HILL is a proven stayer in a field like this. 

He was pushed out to win at 1/2 over three miles having failed to win over 2m4f over hurdles - he isn’t one of the top Willie Mullins novices and he has drifted out since the markets opened. 

Much like STAFFORDSHIRE KNOT, Mullins’ STOKE THE FIRE was visually impressive on his debut for the yard over hurdles. 

But further like STAFFORDSHIRE KNOT, the field he beat was nothing special, but his ex-Flat campaign puts him in a good place and he has proven himself on heavy.

The final horse at a single-figure price is MAHON’S WAY. Having raced just three times under rules in the Cheveley Park silks, he has form with MIRAZUR WEST when third to him in a bumper in March 2023. 

MIRAZUR WEST is a big talking horse and has since bolted up in a maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse last month, so that form could be quite good and the market might be telling on his chances.

RISK ON

A good winner for Young Blood yesterday as we sided with the trainer who beat our bet Tuesday.

15.15 LAZY SUNDAY

We think it’s a favourites day at Lingers today and this stinks. He’s chucked in on old form and won this race last year. Trainer hasn’t had a winner for a year(!) but it could be plays like today that pay the bills… This horse has never won on soft or heavy but he’s bred to enjoy the slop and should win today if fit.

15.45 MAJOR FORTUNE

Leverage at 8/11.