Equinties - a legend retires

Gm Equinauts

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HEADLINE ROUNDUP

THE DENOUEMENT

The end of this National Hunt season is set to be climatic as the top trainers are running their top horses in meetings we didn’t expect them to.

Firstly, in search of a first British Trainers’ Title, the Wizard Willie Mullins is sending EL FABIOLO to the Grade 1 Celebration Chase at Sandown on their jumps finale day. 

That should be a mouth-watering clash – one that we haven’t seen since last season’s Arkle – but it’s not the only English-Irish clash happening in the near future as Nicky Henderson’s SHISHIN “will definitely go” to the Punchestown Gold Cup.

He disappointed massively at Aintree as he travelled smartly but found nothing. He still feels upbeat about his chances, as he said: "At Aintree I just think he wasn't quite sharp enough over three miles around there. The gaps appeared a few times for him, but the others were keeping him hemmed in a bit and he really just needed a gear to get out of those holes, which he didn't have. He'll be sharper around Punchestown, though."

Although we give out about the National Hunt programme, Mullins getting close to the British championship has made the last few weeks of the season very interesting.

A LEGEND RETIRES

The Cheltenham card was a good watch yesterday but the day’s action was completely overshadowed by the retirement of Paddy Brennan.

From an on-track experience as reported by Ash Symonds, Brennan gave it the big one as he crossed the line and started posing for photos with fellow horses/jockeys before he even made it into the winners’ enclosure. Although there was no official announcement until a good 15 minutes after he crossed the line, jockeys and trainers came out to congratulate Brennan after the success which told a very vivid story. 

And then, the announcement came in, and so did the widespread appreciation. 

There aren’t many about who were capable of send one over fence like him. His big white smile a testament to his fearlessness - they’re all fake from being smashed out so much.

From IMPERIAL COMMANDER to that infamous day on CUE CARD, he’s provided us with so many memories. Thank you, Paddy, and enjoy retirement. You’re a true legend of the game.

BIG RACE PREVIEWS

15.00 GROUP 3 ABERNANT STAKES

RUN TO FREEDOM is the highest rated with an official mark of 116. Down in grade, he has twice been runner up at Gr1 level. 

SHOULDVEBEENARING is rated 113. One of two horses that have ran recently, the other is MARSHMAN. The Middleham Park lad is tough, Group 1 second last year and don’t forget his good 3rd in the Foret…his Newmarket experience is just a bonus!

COMMANCHE FALLS is rated 112. He was second to GARRUS last year and comes here fresh. SPYCATCHER rated 111, was Gr1 placed in France last year. Generally a very consistent sprinter. He may have liked the ground a bit easier though.

TIBER FLOW was 4th last year, he is rated 110 and may find that this is a deeper race than last year. Record on turf needs some improvement.

MILL STREAM, MITBAAHY and POPMASTER are all rated 109. The former, MILL STREAM has had a wind op. MITBAAHY is in a new camp with Charlie Hills and POPMASTER looks a bit out of depth over 6 furlongs. 

GARRUS is rated 108. Along with MARSHMAN and SAINT LAWRENCE. MARSHMAN in particular has a fighting chance from stall 3, a recent run must have helped his fitness edge. 

SAINT LAWRENCE is a worthy contender, an eye-catching Gr1 placing in France puts him bang there. And GARRUS has the best jockey in the world on board.

MAKAROVA is rated 107. She has a squeak but will be looking for any black type possible. STREETS OF GOLD is on a revival, he’s best watched. 

WASHINGTON HEIGHTS is the lowest rated, someone has to be. A nice trip to Sweden last year when he picked up a Listed race.

Verdict: SHOULDVEBEENARING is the pick. He’s won at Newmarket before. He has had a recent pipe opener. He has been multiple Gr1 placed. He sits highly in the ratings list.

15.35 GROUP 3 CRAVEN STAKES

ALCANTOR is coming over from France and he rounded off his season with a very good second in the Gr1 Criterium International. Last year he looked like a colt who would do well with another winter on his back. This is an uncommon move for Napoleon Fabre to bring one over for an English Classic Trial.

Likely player EBEN SHADDAD by CALYX made a very bright start on debut and then was 3rd in the Gr1 Dewhurst Stakes, arguably the best 2yo race in Europe for colts. Has course form and wears a hood for the first time.

NATIVE APPROACH has been thrown in on his third start. Fitness won’t be a problem considering he’s had two runs this year on the all weather. Looks to be quite raw and green so he’ll learn a lot today.

CAMBRIDGE oddly won at Salisbury on his second start, a track you don’t often see an Aidan O’Brien runner at. At least not his best. Advise to watch today. 

HAATEM ran an impressive 9 times as a 2yo, 6 of those runs were in Gr2 or Gr1 company. The Vintage Stakes at Goodwood was his day in the sun. He may be vulnerable to 3yo improvers.

SONS AND LOVERS - made a very bright start to his racing career on his sole start last year at the track. He came on the outside with the spinacre up and win on the line. The form looks solid enough and all being well he has strengthened over the winter. Interesting contender. 

CHAMPAGNE PRINCE by LOPE DE VEGA o/o a Gr3 winner who stayed well. Outsider of the field and might lack the experience to really knuckle down today. First time on grass and stepped up to pattern company, this is a fact finding mission.

Verdict: Very difficult to separate EBEN SHADDAD and ALCANTOR but the latter looks a horse who can develop a lot from 2 to 3 and he already achieved a lot as a 2yo. Interestingly NEW BAY’s progeny boast a 19% s/r at the track. Let’s hope this Fabre horse shows up better than yesterdays disappointment.

CHELTENHAM

15.50 LISTED MARES’ NOVICES’ HURDLE

12 will head to post for the Listed Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, but the race could be all about GOLDEN ACE who is a warm favourite to repeat her success from the Festival. The form of that race is strong as two horses – BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD and JADE DE GRUGY – have won Grade 1s since, and the third, BIRDIE OR BUST, is a decent horse. She hasn’t raced on good ground before – and she has to give a penalty away – but she’s going to be tough to knock here. 

It’s 1/2 about the favourite and then 12/1 the field in here, and WYENOT is one of them at the EW prices. She has won three of her last four and even won by 19 lengths three starts ago; bar her pulled-up effort at Lingfield in January, she has shown plenty and she comes from a strong family.

The horse who won that Lingfield race was ASTON MARTINI, though she disappointed at Sandown in Grade 2 company. She’s won twice on good ground, one of them at today’s distance, and he is a half to the 135-rated LANDRAKE. She also comes from the family of RULE THE WORLD, so she is a half-decent horse.

TAKE NO CHANCES has pieces of form that make her interesting. She was third to DYSART ENOS off level weights in a Listed bumper at Market Rasen and QUEENS GAMBLE in second. She was also second to ZAIN NIGHTS, who won comfortably yesterday, and that second to THE DOYEN CHIEF has worked out. Dan Skelton knows what he has at his disposal and he wants as much prize-money as possible.

GO DANTE has had a good season for Olly Murphy this season and he is improving, so that can only bode well for his younger sister LITTLE MISS DANTE, though Olly Murphy has applied a first-time tongue tie. She’s been lightly raced since the start of December, but she has raced in smaller events and this is a big step up.

At the bigger prices, MICKS JET won on this card last year and was last seen bolting up at Musselburgh.

Verdict: With those in behind a much of a muchness, the forecast options are confusing meaning GOLDEN ACE should be a distance job. 4 lengths is evens.

THE BUMPER

This is a good bumper.

GETURGUCCION posted the top rpr when finishing 2nd to a Derham horse who was expected to win that day. The form to beat.

ANNO POWER looked good when winning at Ascot. Not related at all to ANNIE POWER but by a sire w is producing good bumper winners. A half to Mullins’ LECKY WATSON so a high headroom in terms of future rating.

ASIAN STAR is a half to Asian master who finished 4th in the Supreme. Ran in the same point as GETURGUCCION and it reads like she would have beaten her?

I’VEMADEUPMYMIND reps the formidable Pauling team. a bit to find with the op two in market.

LAGERTHA ran against the boys at Newbury lto. Dam has produced nothing of note yet though.

MISS GOLDFIRE’s bumper form hasn’t been working out that well.

PLANTAROMA is well thought of and gets her ground today. Has a squeak at a place on this better ground.

The horse to note at a bigger price is PRECIOUS JEAN who is related to BRANDY LOVE and TOPOFTHECOTSWOLDS. The sire means she’d probably appreciate more cut and an obstacle but shouldn’t be discounted.

Verdict: Skelton’s is interesting given what the half bro did at Cheltenham this year. First time out at Cheltenham would be an issue for another trainer but Dan knows how to get them ready. ASIAN STAR 4’s ew is the pick which might look silly after the race owing to the clear standard King’s sets but they were level when Skelton’s stacked it in a point so perhaps that’s the clue!

RISK ON

OTTOMAN FLEET really should have been a big bet yesterday, that Dubai fitness this time of year can’t be beat. Talking of fitness, we’ll side with SHOULDVEBEENARING ew who has the race fitness on his side (plus reasoning in above preview) and:

16.25 ROYALE MARGAUX

We backed this horse this time last year in this race. She’s been waiting for the ground and reps a yard in smoking hot form. Scary the fave is odds on and she only ran last week, this will be a tough race - we’ll hope she lacks the energy to get up the hill today. 7/1 ew.

Small 32/1 ew double.

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