Equinties - leaderless

Author

BGP Capital
June 12, 2024

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

Last week’s ‘A Look Ahead’ section picked out STRUTH at 16/1 who went off 5/1 and finished third. Another good result to the ante-post collection to provide solid momentum for this week’s section and the race we are focusing on is the six-furlong £100,000 handicap at York on Saturday.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

A LOOK AHEAD

15.35 YORK - this race is restricted to 3yo’s so the nature of the contest is for unexposed types, and ELMONJED fits that profile. His granddam (SHABIBA) won a Listed race over a mile and is a half-sister to the Meydan five-furlong Group 2 winner ERTIJAAL, so this trip is in the pedigree. He stepped into handicap company lto on his seasonal debut and finished sixth under a fairly easy Jim Crowley ride, so he’ll improve for it. Chris Hayes takes the ride which is interesting.

WOODHAY WONDER has won his last four runs, so where is his ceiling? Connections ran him in the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes last season and finished third of four; STAR OF MYSTERY, the second, won a Meydan Group 2 and placed behind CALIFORNIA SPANGLE in the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint at the start of this year to frank the form.

PERSIAN DREAMER, the winner, also finished a good fifth in a hot renewal of the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes after that, so WOODHAY WONDER could continue to improve off 98.

Speaking of WOODAY WONDER form, TREFOR was second to him at Newmarket in April off 77 and is now rated 82 having won a Class 3 handicap at Windsor in June. He could well continue to improve, but his one run on soft ground was poor and if the predicted rain comes (which it should) then that may play against him.

JAMES’S DELIGHT has top weight to shoulder and his mark of 102 is probably steep enough as he’s been well-beaten in Group 3 and Listed company this year. He has his mark thanks to two decent handicap wins, but this could be one step too far.

ORNE is the other horse racing off 102 and he might just have better form in the book as he was second to INISHERIN (Guineas fifth) and ahead of VANDEEK (Middle Park winner) in the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes on his last start. That was a step down to six furlongs for the first time in his career and it was on soft ground, so he would probably want softer ground to make it a test of stamina having run behind BRACKEN’S LAUGH over a mile earlier this season.

Have you heard of Geoff Oldroyd before? He’s certainly a smaller trainer in the game as his last win came 100 days (six runners) ago, but he has a nice one with POCKLINGTON.

The 3yo by BLUE POINT has a nice pedigree as his dam (LADIES ARE FOREVER) won a Listed race over five furlongs and he comes from the family of the once-119-rated HOOF IT. Beating ARMY ETHOS at Newcastle in March is good form as the second was second to RIVER TIBER at Royal Ascot last year, so he could be a player here.

Of the biggest prices, HM The King & HM The Queen could have a strong challenger here with SERRIED RANKS. The LAND FORCE gelding won a handicap at Goodwood as a juvenile off 84 where he beat STARLUST (now rated 114) and ZOULU CHIEF (now rated 97). Now rated 83, he made a good reappearance at Sandown in April and bred by the late Queen, he is out of PACK TOGETHER who placed in a Listed race over seven furlongs.

Verdict: Ground will be important to some but we think ELMONJED is versatile and we refuse to believe his career is over so early. He got absolutely slammed in the market at York lto but didn’t go a stride. We’re going to forgive him and hope he comes on (a lot) for that last time out run. 8/1.

FRANK(EL) PLANS 

GUN OF BRIXTON led all the way in a smart looking maiden at Saint Cloud yesterday. One to put in the tracker.

Trained by Andre Fabre who’s easily one of the best trainers in the world. This lad was a 200k yearling at Arqana in Deauville. From the family of EMILY UPJOHN, HARZAND, BIG ROCK and HURRICANE LANE.

Talking of or mentioning BIG ROCK. Christophe Soumillon will now be in the controls for Royal Ascot. The connections will be doing the rain dance over the weekend, if any rain does come he’ll be a serious player in the Queen Anne, especially off his run from on Champions Day over course and distance.

BLUE ROSE CEN is a mega French filly coming over for the Prince Of Wales. Dual Classic winner in France last year. She made an encouraging seasonal debut in the Prix d’Ispahan, the extra furlong at Royal Ascot will help. Another ride picked up by Soumillon who has taken over from Aurelian Lemaitre, her usual rider who had ridden her every time she hit the track.

Currently 20/1, and with the field likely to chop up she rates a smashing each-way selection.

BHA LEADERLESS

Well, Julie Harrington will step down as BHA chief executive at the end of 2024.

We don’t usually delve into this side of racing in the newsletter because it’s the worst part about this sport, but it’s a fairly sizable event which will have ramifications for the future of the sport, so as Norm says - we’ll dip the toe in.

The former CEO of British Cycling came into her current job in January 2021 and had the unenviable task of tackling the fallout of Covid-19 as well as falling racecourse attendances, a growth in small runner races, and the change in whip rules.

Premierisation and the sport’s overhanging issue with the upcoming gambling review have also occurred during her time at the helm, so she has had a busy time of it.

So, the big question on everyone’s lips is has she been a good leader of the BHA?

Many of you reading this will think it is a cut-and-dry answer of “no”, but it’s more complicated than that.

Horse racing is currently facing its biggest identity crisis since the years of Red Rum’s National, and okay, that’s not all due to the BHA’s actions - we have been under threat from a changing world and the rise of groups similar to Animal Rising for a few years have put the sport under more public scrutiny. And fair play to the BHA for their response in dealing with it.

Oddly enough though, there been some instances of self-harm. No activist groups involved, just the ageing BHA beating themselves up in their own committee meetings.

Strict whip rules and the removal of of sauna’s didn’t sit well with the jockeys, and the jury is still out on ‘Premierisation’ as falling racecourse attendances continue to plague horse racing. Just take this year’s Epsom Derby meeting and, most notably, the 2024 Cheltenham Festival.

There is a mountain of problems that racing has to solve, and unfortunately, Harrington had not shown enough in her two-and-a-half years at the BHA to suggest that she would make the necessary changes to heal our sport.

So, who will take charge next?

The Jockey Club announced that Nevin Truesdale would step down as their chief executive at the end of the year earlier this week, so he could step in, although the likes of Matt Hancock (of all people!), Josh Apiafi, and Matthew Imi are joint favourites with Truedale to take over.

We think racing needs their own Bernie Ecclestone to take back control of the deals with the racecourses and the bookies who each take far too much away from the sport.

BIG SHOES TO FILL

And finally, after the heavy topic of Julie Harrington, we’ll go back to a more light-hearted subject.

The topic in question is a horse with a pedigree to die for as ZILFEE, the SEA THE STARS half-sister to ENABLE, is making her debut in the 17:40 at Kempton tonight.

The Juddmonte homebred is a three-year-old and is making her debut over 1m3f, which is interesting, but her pedigree is stamina-focused as her dam (CONCENTRIC) won a Listed race over 1m2f and she is a full-sister to DERAB who placed in a Listed race over 1m2f.

ZILFEE will be the fifth progeny of CONCENTRIC to hit the track since ENABLE was born and none have hit the same heights as the Group 1 winner by NATHANIEL, so she isn’t guaranteed to be a world beater just because of her pedigree.

However, if you can’t get excited for horses like these, then should you really be in the game?

RISK ON

The place bets on the singles yesterday provided good damage limitation as the first bumped into one and the second was given a shocker of a ride. But we move one. Pedigree bet today:

16.43 SAMI BEAR

One of the few in this race bred for NH. On a good mark. Gordon hasn’t had a winner for a while and doesn’t tend to target this time of year but he can get a winner at the track and this horse needs summer ground. 9/2 ew.