Equinties - Lawlor's take two

Gm Equinauts

David Maxwell has featured in this newsletter a lot this week, everyone knows we’re his biggest fan and he’s featuring again now but for a much more sombre note than the usual celebration of a man living his dream.

Yesterday news broke that Festival winner SIMPLY THE BETTS had to be put down due to colic. David purchased the wonder horse with a grand plan in mind - to bag his first Cheltenham festival win.

There’ll be many connected to this horse, past and present, who will be so sad over his passing. We get so connected to these animals.

Poor old David hasn’t had a good week and so, David, if by some chance you’re reading this, our thoughts are with you…

and if we ever bump into you in the City again, the Guinness is on us this time.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

HEN IS IN THE HOUSE

She’s back!

After over 11 years away from training horses under her name, the Gold Cup-winning trainer, Henrietta Knight, is back with runners on a British racecourse as she sends two to Wincanton today. 

The 77-year-old is best known for her work with BEST MATE, the three-time Cheltenham Gold Cup winner between 2002 and 2004, though the legendary operator has been officially away from the game since 2011 when she selflessly took care of her beloved husband Terry Biddlecombe whose health was quickly deteriorating.

This hasn’t stopped her from keeping in the industry though. Over 50 trainers including the mighty Nicky Henderson have been sending horses to her at her West Lockinge base since stepping back from official training duties and she also had the responsibility of buying for big owners such as the late Mike Grech.

Fast forward to today and ZETTABYTE, a former Gordon Elliott-trained horse, is set to be her first official runner in the 13.30, a 2m4f handicap hurdle, a market headed by last time out mega-gamble NIMBUS BOY.

ZETTABYTE was a 70k recruit for Elliott but now runs for Knight still a maiden. He looks useless so Hen will have had to work a bit of her magic on him if he’s to get his head in front today. At 20’s, the market says he can’t.

The second half of her entries list today is BALLYWALTER in the 15.00. A 15-length Irish PtP winner, it took him six attempts to get his head in front. Hen has said “he might improve with age”, which is absolutely fair enough as 7-8yo seems to be a period in horses lives where they really mature both physically and mentally.

Elaborating further on BALLYWALTER, Knight said: "There's a family connection because he's owned by my niece and he'll run in my sister's colours. He's no world-beater but he's a genuine staying type and hopefully he jumps very well. He's always jumped well up until now." 

Best of luck today, Henrietta!

A WILLIE PROBLEM

The exchange market and lack of entries told a story over the last few weeks that something had happened to Willie Mullins’ IT’S FOR ME and yesterday we got wind on X that the six-year-old has suffered a setback, one that makes him unlikely for Cheltenham. 

Simon Munir & Isaac Souede’s exciting novice hurdler beat CALDWELL POTTER at Punchestown in November, two starts before the runner-up won the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Christmas. 

No official confirmation has come forward yet, but his price of 27 on the Betfair Exchange – and lay price of 290 – would suggest he’ll be on the side lines for a few months. Although this is bad news for Mullins, he does still have a few up-and-coming stars to look forward to, notably MISTER POLICEMAN who heads the betting for the 12.42 at Naas.

He was talked up as an Arkle horse for this season, though he only scrambled home at Fairyhouse in November to see off stablemate FEU DU BRESIL – a horse who has let the form down since – which slightly dampened the mood.

Today’s task is a tough one as SA FUREUR was running well behind FACILE VEGA and INTHEPOCKET at Navan before falling and QUILIXIOS put in a huge effort over 2m3f to beat COOL SURVIVOR at Limerick two starts ago before he disappointed on the step up to three miles. 

It is certainly a race to look forward to!

13.42 GRADE 1 LAWLOR’S OF NAAS NOVICE HURDLE

In what is a good weekend of racing, the Lawlor’s Of Naas kicks off an exciting few days at the rescheduled Naas card. When this market first opened up last week for before the race was abandoned, the market was headed by FIREFOX for Gordon Elliott, though his position in the market with ILE ATLANTIQUE has since switched.

That being said, he is looking to extend his four-race winning streak and although the six-year-old may not be one of these ‘sexy’ horses that Racing X latches onto, he deserves a lot of respect.

He beat BALLYBURN over two miles lto who franked the form at Leopardstown when bolting up over 2m4f and he also beat ILE ATLANTIQUE in a bumper at Fairyhouse. Weirdly, he has drifted out to be the second favourite because he has looked classy to date. 

With FIREFOX on the drift, ILE ATLANTIQUE has been the solid market proposition that is apparently working well at home (classic). He had to do the donkey work when he was beaten at Fairyhouse in April by FIREFOX and he has since bolted up in an egg and spoon race at Gowran Park. 

The one worrying thing would potentially be the step up in trip. He didn’t see out his race against FIREFOX when it looked like he had everything done and dusted. He looks a very exciting one, but FIREFOX is ahead on the score sheet.

Another thing to note ahead of today is the potential Cheltenham races of the top two in the market. If one of these two wins, they will probably book their ticket to the Ballymore (which will no longer be called the Ballymore as they have pulled their sponsorship from the race.

If ILE ATLANTIQUE fails to fire or gets done for pace, the Albert Bartlett might be brought into the equation but if he wins, one could speculate that BALLYBURN would be the elected Supreme horse after seeing sustained money for the opening contest of the Festival on the exchanges over the last few days. 

At bigger prices, there are three horses with proven Graded form from this season. AN TOBAR disappointed a few not to win the Grade 1 Royal Bond at Fairyhouse in December, though the winner, FARREN GLORY, has franked the form at Aintree as he looked like a winner before falling and the second, KING OF KINGSFIELD, beat MIRAZUR WEST in a maiden hurdle since. 

It’s a similar case for LECKY WATSON who also placed in a Graded race, though this one occurred when second to SLADE STEEL in a Grade 2 at Navan. 

He travels well into his races but his jumping slightly lets him down and he’d need to step up here. CROKE PARK is a Graded winner having won the Grade 3 Monksfield Novice Hurdle at Navan in November, though the form is a bit sketchy. 

He looks like a ready-made Albert Bartlett type, so he could run well here without getting his head in front.

Verdict: The likes of DEATH DUTY, ENVOI ALLEN and BOB OLINGER have won this in the past, monsters. The market tends to get this race spot on, 8 favourites from the last 10 running’s of the race have won. The market, currently, is siding with ILE ATLANTIQUE instead of FIREFOX but we think FIREFOX is a better hurdler than ILE ATLANTIQUE who looks a long, scopey chaser in the making.

MEYDAN FRIDAY 

There is a FEAST of racing today, not just in the UK and Ireland, but under the sun in Meydan too and we’ve picked out 3 horses to keep any eye on:

MANY A STAR in the 13.30 is coming here off the back of a win at Goodwood, a track he loves. Up 3lbs for that win but looks like a solid each way play at 11/2.

STARLUST in the 15.50 is going to be hard to beat. Last seen chasing home BIG EVS at the Breeder’s Cup, he beat ARRAY (Mill Reef Winner) at Kempton and didn’t disgrace himself when 5th in the Gr1 Middle Park. 7/4 for a win bet seems the right price.

HIGHBANK 17.00 is probably Buick’s best chance of the night, although Buick seems to be in the winners enclosure fairly frequently when he is riding at Meydan. Highbank’s brother, Bay Of Poets was second at Meydan in a Gr2 and HIGHBANK could follow suit. Still lightly raced, this Kingman gelding who cost 750k at Tattersalls is one to follow. 11/4. 

YOUNG BLOOD

WINCANTON BUMPER

Nicholls’ RICKETY BRIDGE has seen a big sell off from fave out to 2/1 allowing Hendo’s CENTREOFATTENTION to get all the attention top of the market.

CENTREOFATTENTION is by the same sire as connections monster JERIKO DU REPONET, CHOEUR DU NORD. Nicely bred dam side with a mix of flat and NH pedigree. Nothing wrong this one.

RICKETY BRIDGE is related to BIG BUCK’S. Starting to look a little exposed in bumpers but that form is good enough to win this race should the money for the fave be wasted.

BEN SOLO for racings smoke show Rebecca Curtis is a half to TOP DOG who was a very good bumper winner. Big chance if Curtis has him revved up for it. She has only won 2 bumpers from 39… so we’re not sure she will?

Olly Murphy’s is a big price given yard are 2 from 2 in Wincanton bumpers. Nothing wrong with ped - watch the market. has to be a reason he is big? His two winners here were very short odds.

Verdict: The money is telling for Hendo and JP’s CENTREOFATTENTION who is by a sire Nicky has been purring over (did he have this one in mind when waxing lyrical?). Could be a monster but that’s guessing. On pedigree, the best horse for this race is BEN SOLO and boy oh boy would we love for this horse to win…just so we can see Rebecca’s face on screen.

RISK ON

We’ll watch the Wincanton bumper market before deciding to play.

15.07 SUNDAY SOLDIER & 15.30 CALL THE DANCE

Weirdly enough these two have finished together for the forecast in a bumper. They’re the horses to beat in thier respective races today. Double pays 5/2.

There might be another play posted to X @equinties.

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