Equinties - l'Arc takes shape

Gm Equinauts

Newmarket is a good three hour drive from Berkshire if there’s even the slightest whiff of traffic on the M25 and so immediately we were in danger of entertaining a conversation about every single possible scenario and outcome possible of Ranger’s race the whole way.

Questions such as ‘do you think he just wins?’, ‘it’s a big field, who else is well handicapped?’, ‘back to a mile will suit'…right?’, ‘he’s definitely bouncing at home yeh?’ and ‘what did you say he’s working to again?’ might have been on repeat for the entire journey had we not knocked it on the head.

By talking about it and asking the same questions over and over over, you’re only looking for confirmation bias for your own horse but what good is that when you have absolutely not control of the outcome?

You’re best to just not think about it and to trust the process, trust the trainer and trust the horse and enjoy the day out.

So obviously we talked about the race the whole way down.

But what a waste of breath…

RANGER THUNDERBOLT(ED) UP!

He looked in trouble half way with Stott at the pump early ( having sweated up in the pre’s, we wondered if he was too revved for the occasion) but when they got to the front that’s where they stayed. He’s a big, powerful galloper who simply stays and once he got to the front, he didn’t let anything past him.

A proper performance. Well done, Ranger. Now…go make some money at the sales!

Now, let’s dive in.

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Try it through UK MEDS, use discount code EQUINTIES10 and thank us later.

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HEADLINE ROUNDUP

ARC DRAW

Yesterday morning saw the stalls for this year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe allocated and a few sets of connections have seen their hopes diminish in their fingertips as a result.

Notably, HUKUM is the one who is seemingly disadvantaged by this year’s draw as he will break from stall 14 - only six horses have won the Arc from a double-figure stall since the year 2000 and generally, being drawn lower is better.

He drifted out to 6/1 after the news as did SIMCA MILLE in 15 (14/1 out to 25/1), though the confidence behind favourite ACE IMPACT continued to grow after he was given stall eight.

The Arc countdown is nearing its conclusion and what a race it could be.

RACE PREVIEWS

13.50 LISTED ROSEMARY STAKES

Shaggas has won this race three times in the last 10 years, the race normally going to a Newmarket based trainer and a healthy field of 12 has created an interesting, competitive renewal today.

COPPICE was once thought of as a 1000 Guineas horse for the Gosdens before she bombed on her second start and their sights were set lower. She won this year’s Sandringham Stakes at Royal Ascot off a mark of 97 and has been highly tried in Group company since. She finished fifth on her next start in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes on her next start when ahead of the likes of PROSPEROUS VOYAGE, RANDOM HARVEST, and NEVER ENDING STORY which is form that could be good enough to win a race like this in calmer waters today.

QUEEN FOR YOU is another who represents the Gosdens and has hit the crossbar a few times this season. She ran into a back-to-form HEREDIA last time out when quietly fancied by her owner Philippa Cooper and looks to have a preference towards better ground based on her second at York in May and fifth in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes when behind TAHIYRA. Her form therefore reads well, as it does for SILVER LADY.

SILVER LADY was just a neck behind QUEEN FOR YOU on her last start on the Listed Oaks Farms Stables Fillies’ Stakes in May (the newsletter tipped the winner in SOUNDS OF HEAVEN) . She hasn’t been seen since then but the HIGHLAND AVENUE half-sister won fto this season so should be respected off this long break.

The one that has seen some money at the bigger prices is Dermot Weld’s TARAWA who has raced six times this season. The best of her runs came in the Group 1 Irish 1000 Guineas when’s staying-on fourth behind stablemate TAHIYRA and a case can definitely be made for her chances.

Of the rest, ASTRAL BEAU is a good horse in this company but probably wants soft, POTAPOVA would need to find a bit and AMEYNAH could take a step up to this level based on her maiden victory last year but us yet to get her head in front this season.

Verdict: A fillies and mares only race means this isn’t one to get stuck into as they can be so hit and miss with their form. POTAPOVA placed behind QUEEN FOR YOU lto at Sandown but probably would have stayed on either upsides or in front of her with a clear route making her over priced today but she’d prefer slower ground. We really don’t have a strong fancy in this and see the boys in blue are smashing theirs… they look like they could have a good day.

14.25 GROUP 3 DUBAI STAKES

A hotly contested race this year with 3/1 4/1 the field, it looks wide open.

SWEET MEMORIES has improved with each run, she’s a lightly raced daughter of SEA THE STARS, won lto on soft today will be on good to firm, that’s the question mark.

RUNNING LION has done well this year at a level, she bolted up in Listed company at the start of the year beating SUMO SAM who has good form but I think improved a lot this year since that run (and in atrocious conditions). Stepped up in trip today which looks like it will suit and the quick surface should be ok for her.

SEA THEME is another lightly raced daughter of SEA THE STARS. Her form is good for this level winning a Listed lto, she needs to improve but that his highly likely considering she’s only had 3 runs.

NOVOKAI has been found wanting in Group 1 company like her 7th place lto, this is more her level today and she’s a big player on her runs at this level. She bolted up at Newmarket two starts back in a Listed but the form is questionable. Place claims.

TIME LOCK is one of 4 FRANKEL’s in the race, she won a Listed race at Craon lto. She’s going the right way but may find one or two of these too good today.

AZAZAT is a daughter of CAMELOT, trainer does well with his horses he travels over so has to be taken seriously. Any market support before the race will be telling but looks like they are just chasing black type.

VEIL OF SHADOWS by FRANKEL is a consistent type but just falls short in this company, the step up in trip will hopefully squeeze out some improvement for connections.

VOODOO QUEEN by FRANKEL looks to be going the right way and was a very cosy winner lto in a Listed beating ONE EVENING off level weights. It’s good form as SEA THEME who’s much shorter in the betting beat ONE EVENING by a head getting a lot of weight from her. Leading player today on the ground they’ve been waiting for:

Verdict: Another girls race - something we loathe to get too heavily invested in, but purely on a pricing differential, VOODOO QUEEN is too big. Her form lines with ONE EVENING put her ahead of SEA THEME who is a third the price. She will go on the ground as shown in previous runs and is the ew play. NOVAKAI is the main danger to all. Two options if you’re playing with money or the Fantasy.

15.35 GROUP 2 DUBAI JOEL STAKES

Fair play to the new Indian owners of CHINDIT, they’re still racing him. Only seen last week when winning in Listed company, he’s back out quickly today for this Group 2 and is weak fave.

He’s been a brilliant race horse and is deserving favourite today but might just be vulnerable to younger and fresher legs today.

MALJOOM makes his reappearance having been last seen back in June of last season. He lost his unbeaten record to three top horses in the St James’s palace Stakes which is brilliant form but the lay off is a worry for this stamina testing mile race. Even if back to his best, he falls short on form through MY PROSPERO and CHINDIT in the Lockinge.

In that Lockinge race MUTASAABEQ was well beat by both CHINDIT and MY PROSPERO putting him down the list for today. MIGHTY ULYSEES looks just short of a Group 2 too.

At a bigger price EPICTETUS is interesting. His 5th in the Prix du Jockey Club form looks very good and his Goodwood win was class. Nothing went right for him lto and the pricing is ignorant to that. Plus the quicker going is a bonus.

Verdict: Only 6 in the race so really you’re going to need to find the winner. We think MALJOOM is one to take on given his absence. We’ve landed on EPICTETUS at 15/2.

17.20 LISTED GODOLPHIN STAKES

The Listed Godolphin Stakes is headed in the market by a Godolphin-owned horse as NEW LONDON is hoping to land his first W of the year.

Formally a Group 1 Irish St Leger second and Group 3 Gordon Stakes win last season, he has yet to replicate that form and a seven length defeat lto in the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Berlin on good ground wouldn’t fill anyone with confidence.

The unexposed LIONS PRIDE is next in the market following his third in the Listed August Stakes at Windsor lto, a race won by CANDLEFORD who reappears today. The half-brother to COURAGE MON AMI had plenty of chance to win lto and still didn’t want to go by CANDLEFORD, so an improvement on that run would be needed but it’s hard to see that for reversed.

As for CANDLEFORD, he’s been a solid runner for Shaggas who relishes good ground and was a good second to BAY BRIDGE lto at Kempton, so his form is beginning to stand up.

At a price, BLANCHLAND looks the one who could improve to hit the frame for Jane Chapple-Hyam. He has only hit the track once this season when a poor - yet well-backed - eighth of nine in the Listed Fielden Stakes.

Despite this, his length defeat at the hands of FLYING HONOURS and his two-length win over THE GOAT last season is enough to suggest he could be a player.

Verdict: NEW LONDON ran in a Group 1 lto so they obviously think a lot of him. A smart 2nd in the St Leger last year makes him undoubtedly the one to beat.

YOUNG BLOOD

15.00 GROUP 2 ROCKFEL STAKES

SHUWARI is by NEW BAY, another smart filly for the Sangster family who cost 80,000gns from Ballylinch Stud. Her form last time out has been had some boosts, FALLEN ANGEL has won the Moyglare and SOPRANO was an unlucky 3rd in the Dick Poole just drawn on the wrong side.

YLANG YLANG was a 1.5million guineas yearling from Newsells draft. By FRANKEL, she looked very promising beating VESPERTILIO at Leopardstown in the Silver Flash Gr3. She then finished last in the Moyglare, VESPERTILIO was 2nd, but all of Aiden’s in that race were 7th, 8th and last. Bug?

CARLA’S WAY has been frustrating, well backed in the Albany and the Prestige behind DARNATION, (tbf DARNATION has since helped the form as she won the Gr2 May Hill) but she always seems to find one or two too good.

SPIRITUAL was bred by Ballylinch Stud, would have been in the same paddock as SHUWARI. By INVINCIBLE SPIRIT, she is from the family of Yorkshire Oaks Winners HELLENIC and ISLINGTON. Gosden always puts a nice filly in here and he had COMMISSIONING win this last year off 1 run.

ALSHINFARAH is NOBLE MISSION for Shadwell who are having a great year. This filly was 3rd in a Gr3 in France but had to get racing a long way out, drops back to 7f today, she will bring that experience today.

ZENJABEELA and MARCELA are up against it and CAROLINA REAPER is overpriced for those long shot eachway/place bets but will likely find the competition too good.

Verdict: YLANG YLANG was 4/1 which was a bit crazy and has been sensibly tightened by the books. We can always forgive one bad day at the office and the fact VESPERTILIO was 2nd in the Moyglare suggests YLANG YLANG would have gone close to FALLEN ANGEL, who ties in with SHUWARI. Long story short, at the prices YLANG YLANG is the pick, SHUWARI is very good and there isn’t a great deal between them at this time although one is trained by a genius and ridden by a genius. We’ll go with the geniuses.

STATS OF THE DAY

Only one stat today:

16.40 BILLY NO MATES won this race in ‘20. Tends to do all his winning or placing under a rating of 75 which he’s on today, running on ground he needs.

RISK ON

Sick of saying it this week but boy it’s tough today. We really like NEW LONDON in the 17.20 Dubai Stakes but short enough.

No stand out bets today so we’ll be playing the Tote Fantasy today. Protect your betting bank on tough day and join us in the BGP league using code: QHZ36G

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