Equinties - a Kingman is Queen of the sales

Gm Equinauts

Racing X went wild after this run yesterday:

And straight away we posted this comment:

Now, this wasn’t to take anything away from what was quite clearly a very nice performance, visually, but what it wild is everyone racing to the ante-post markets to try and back him for Cheltenham.

A very quick look into the race suggests the race was nothing more than a walk over. That’s the perspective we think many punters will miss, blinded by the ease of his victory.

IROKO was 2/1 last night for a bad race. Nicholls’ French import was always one to take one. That was your bet, not a specualtive play on a race in 5 months time when he’s going to be running in a bog vs 20 others, 6 trained by big Willie.

Don’t get us wrong, we’d love nothing more than to see more British trainers taking on the Irish at our own Cheltenham - but patriotism and excitement for a nice horse needs to be levelled if you don’t want to be liquidated.

Now about the horse. The Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero-trained five-year-old will have learned plenty around the stiff test of Warwick so naturally we can’t wait to see what he does next.

Post-race, many were calling for him to potentially step up in trip for a tilt at the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day, however, connections said the opposite and are flirting with the idea of dropping him back down in distance. His pedigree is all 2miles.

With a horse like IROKO, who has a good level of class, he could have plenty of options going forward so it's not a bad thing that they are able to have a debate like this.

Don’t forget: After giving away the Vegas trip last weekend, don’t miss our next prize - a £500 John Lewis gift voucher to help with your Christmas shopping.

Let’s dive in!

Our sponsor UK MEDS are the only online pharma-distributor to have the fat loss jab OZEMPIC in stock ever since Elon Musk tweeted about it creating a shortage.

Use code EQUINTIES50 for £50 off and free delivery.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

HANDICAPPING

The National Hunt season is here to stay for a while and some prestigious handicaps are set to occur over the next few weeks, none more so than the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham next Saturday, a race that is set to see THE REAL WHACKER begin his season. 

Having earmarked the Edinburgh Gin Chase and Colin Parker Memorial Chase as potential starting points, trainer Patrick Neville is now looking to start his stable star off in handicap company back at the same course he won three times around last season.

Another valuable handicap on the horizon is the Coral Gold Cup, a race that will be without BOWTOGREATNESS as he has suffered a setback. Last seen when second to MIDNIGHT RIVER at the Aintree Grand National meeting, the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase is a race he could be targeted for.

BIG PRICED MUMMA

SAUTERNE sold for $4.2million last night at Fasig Tipton, along with 24 other mares selling for over a million.

The KINGMAN filly had won the Gr1 Prix Du Moulin this term, beating the QEII winner BIG ROCK but also hit the frame in the Pouliches, Prix Jean Prat and Prix Rothschild.

Bred by JP Dubois, who also bred and owned ONESTO, she was sent through the sales ring without meeting her reserve and brought back for €130,000.

The owners tried again to sell her, this time at the Goffs London Sale, but they obviously wanted more than the 1.2 million euros she passed in for. Her dams sister is STACELITA, a champion in France and also produced a champion in SOUL STIRRING who was Frankel’s first Classic winner.

ANOTHER YEAR?

More breeding news as yesterday saw Coolmore release their stallion roster for 2024 with the likes of LITTLE BIG BEAR, PADDINGTON, and THE ANTARCTIC as some of the new additions, but one name that was not on the list was AUGUSTE RODIN. 

Connections have yet to make a public announcement on the future plans for the recent Breeders’ Cup winner, and with the recent declarations of stud fees for 2024, one can assume he is either staying in training or he will stand in Japan.

AUGUSTE RODIN is a special prospect for the breeding world, something Aidan O’Brien said himself as he said: “He brings the two continents together and there won’t ever be another one of him.” Breeders are already “looking for him” and “the lads are under pressure that way”, so this won’t be an easy decision for Coolmore.

According to his words in the Racing Post, the decision on his future will be made in the next week to ten days. 

As for the rest of the Coolmore stallion book, WOOTTON BASSETT’s fee is up to €200,000 from €150,000 after the successes of KING OF STEEL and BUCANERO FUERTE whereas PADDINGTON was introduced at €55,000.

More:

YOUNG BLOOD

Our bumper previews haven’t really missed yet, only Olly Murphy’s last Saturday letting the bull run down. There are two bumpers to assess today, one for the girls and one for the boys:

16.10 WARWICK 

GRANNY HAWKINS is joint fave at 5’s - a price suggesting the market thinks this is wide open. her blood is a proper NH pedigree and is a full sister to two winners (one bumper winner). Her dam side suggests better ground would be more ideal but given the way she finished lto, she’s a live contender.

MARMALADE TIME is interesting, not so much for her pedigree, more for her trainer, Mel Rowley. Mel’s horses always try. Nearly every single horse she currently has at her yard, who have been with her as a novice, have either all won or gone damn close (the one’s who didn’t are no good). BLUE BEACH, LATITUDE, MAXCEL are recent bumper winners and FINAL SHOT, VAL DANCER, TIKITOV, IDEALES VILLERETS have all placed at big prices. A fine effort for a yard who don’t have the best amo so you can be damn sure MARMALADE TIME will be running for her life today.

BABY SHALLY won a weak point. She’s by a great sire for bumpers but her dam side let’s her down. One to take on - good as she’s short in the market.

LET IT RAIN for the Skelton’s might be interesting. Pedigree first dam limited but she’s a full to WHISPER. If this girl is anything like WHISPER then she wins. Watch the market, currently 9’s.

DROMLAC JURY has a lovely pedigree, arguably best here, and has been squeezed from 16’s into 15/2. Owned by PLANSINA’s owner, a little mare who has been so good to us, she is supposed to be a very nice horse for later down the line. She’ll only win today on natural ability - not for her being targeted for it.

Fergal targets bumpers so always upgrade his chances but GIVER THE HOLLIE’s pedigree leaves a bit to be desired for this race. Handicapper down the line.

One of Paul Nicholls’ ex-wives, Georgina (lovely woman) runs a JUKEBOX JURY (same sire as DROMLAC JURY). Out of a half to MASTERMINDED. Needs to improve but can do and is a contender for a trainer who, like her ex will target these races.

CHOOCH is a half to a Hendo bumper winner. DOYEN’s are hard gallopers. Over priced at 14’s - any support should be noted.

Surprising CANDY PAINT is drifting so much, Newland does well in the few bumpers he has runners in but 50’s says no. The rest will struggle.

Verdict: Skelton’s could be useful as could Tom Symonds’ but we’ll go with an unusual pick today combining both pedigree and yard intentions, and thats for MARMALADE TIME. She's a great bet in this race. At 7.0 on the exchange, she a good self made ew or a 6/4 single to place top 3 on the books.

16.25 CHEPSTOW

JACOBIN is strong fave at 7/4 but his pedigree is a little opaque. He’s by a new sire who has had a good start over in France with his first runners. Dam side brings some mud loving winners to the page. Complete unknown but we would be wary of taking on in this ground if he doesn’t drift.

I SEE THE SEA is the pedigree pick and would be the verdict pick if from a yard who cared about bumpers. He’s been in training since spring and has been schooling very well over obstacles, our thoughts are this is a prep for jumping.

ROCKING MAN is being squeezed because Sam Thomas has been killing it in bumpers recently. Another new sire we’re not too familiar with, but the grand sire MONSUN who produced good bumper winners. Proper French ped, will make a nice jumper but not sure he’s as well bred as some of the others Sam has sent out.

MOUNT GAY RUN is an expensive recruit for the McNeill family but his pedigree doesn’t suit this race.

Skelton’s CATCH HIM DERRY will get stuck in the mud.

THE CYPRIOT is an interesting runner for Evan Williams. His bumper record and training reputation suggests he doesn’t care for these race’s but a deeper look suggests this isn’t quite true. For instance many of his horses have gone relatively close in previous running’s of this race to be exact, and in all he has a 10% strike rate in them (not far away from his 12% hurdle streike rate). Simply put, Evan just hasn’t got the fire power like other yards to win bumpers which is why today is interesting. There aren’t many runners in this race and THE CYPRIOT definitely has the pedigree to win at 11/1. Given JP’s (with the unknown pedigree) is 7/4, I’d rather take a chance at 11’s.

KING ROLY can’t win.

Verdict: Let’s be clear - the market is obviously expecting BIG things from the Nicholls hot pot. But, despite what the market is shouting, we’re going to take a chance on THE CYPRIOT at 11/1. It’s not a strong selection with the strong fave’s pedigree such an unknown and Sam Thomas having his ready to run for their life but it is the pedigree pick.

TODAY’S BEST STATS

The only stat horse yesterday went odds on in running at the last, having gone off 5/1 but just got done for a bit of speed on the flat by a nicely bred Moore horse. Todays stats are:

13.05 UNION FAG is a stat and also features as the main play today. Big Don is 5 from 9 in juvenile hurdles races at course.

Nicholls is 2 from 2 in Chepstow bumpers this year, 13 from 32 in all and has won the 14.25 the last two times he’s had a runner in it. Runs two today, check the bumper preview above. JP’s looks his best chance.

RISK ON

One bad bet yesterday, he went heavy odds on in running (due to Harry’s front running ride) but completely blew up. We will NOT be following him as he isn’t quite perhaps as good as we thought he was. Our bad. A bit annoying given we thought we were owed a winner from Monday, but the bookies don’t care for your feelings.

Today we’re playing a fairly confident selection in:

13.05 UNION FLAG

Despite being by a flat sire, he jumped impeccably at Cork against a better field than today and should prove a cut above the rest. Dam side brings much needed stamina vs others who lack it. 7/4.

To join the Weekender’s club and be in with a chance to win the £500 John Lewis git voucher, simply subscribe for £1 a week!

Become a paying subscriber of Premium to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

A subscription gets you:

• • The weekender edition (Mon-Fri still free)
• • The weekends best bets
• • That warm fuzzy feeling inside knowing the intern gets fed
• • Only £1 a week!