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Equinties - King's contest
BGP Capital
November 24, 2025
Gm Equinauts
Last weekend was for the punters. Like, seriously, those punting days where all the good things just do their job?
Cherish them.
Let’s dive in!
HEADLINE ROUNDUP
KING’S CONTEST
When weekends like that of the last one happen, it’s nice to take a step back and just appreciate how good we’ve had it.
Seriously, we had GREY DAWNING win the Grade 1 Betfair Chase on the bridle, FACT TO FILE and GAELIC WARRIOR served up a superb John Durkan, JANGO BAIE announced himself as a proper King George chance, THE JUKEBOX MAN is also off to Kempton, and LOSSIEMOUTH kicked off her season in great style.
Wonderful stuff.
The main storyline from this weekend revolves around the King George, because we saw five potential runners over the last two days. Let’s start with GAELIC WARRIOR and that John Durkan.
As it should, the race is getting its plaudits, and it went pretty much how we thought it would when we half-previewed the race on Thursday. INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN and FASTORSLOW massively needed it, which left GAELIC WARRIOR and FACT TO FILE to lock horns. Somehow, GAELIC WARRIOR got back up to dethrone FACT TO FILE even though he made all and was a bit of a sitting duck in the home straight.
Both horses are STACKED with ability, we know that but this just further shows how good GAELIC WARRIOR is and has always been. Remember that performance in the Faugheen a couple of seasons ago? Yep, he’s always been a future world class three-miler in the making.
So, King George. It’s funny that this year is the year that we’ll get to see him at Kempton, as it really should have been last season, but connections got it in their heads that he was a two-miler due to his Arkle win, when he really wasn’t. Fair enough, we all make misjudgements, but this again shows just how good he is as he was able to win an Arkle over two before winning an Aintree Bowl over three 13 months later.
He is just a very, very solid option at this stage for the King George. Right-handed, speedy enough track, rewards high cruising speed, race-fit, good form in the book. Bosh, bosh, bosh, bosh, bosh.
Will FACT TO FILE join? That’s still up in the air, and Willie Mullins hasn’t committed to anything. We think a lot will depend on how GALOPIN DES CHAMPS comes back from his setback. We imagine that FACT TO FILE could stay in Ireland for the Savills, to be honest.
There is a small thing to note. That was a very hard race for both of them, and they could well feel some effects of it when Christmas comes around. It’ll be hard to know when betting them, obviously, but it’s worth mentioning anyway.
One day before the John Durkan, the British challenge stated their claims for the King George thanks to THE JUKEBOX MAN and JANGO BAIE.
There’s no negativity to through at any of the potential King George horses that ran this weekend because they all performed well, and that’s the same for TJM and JANGO BAIE.
They both travelled well, were far too good for the field, and looked very smart in everything that did. Both sets of connections also think the world of them, and unlike GAELIC WARRIOR and FACT TO FILE, we know that both are definitely 100% going to Kempton at Christmas.
It’s hard to have a strong preference for one or the other based on this weekend, because they will both come on for it, and in JANGO BAIE’s defence, the Nicky Henderson yard probably still has a question or two to answer regarding their form.
But, it was hard not to be seriously taken back by JANGO BAIE. He’s thoroughly unexposed over staying trips, and the field he beat was solid, even if a few did blow up. THE JUKEBOX MAN probably didn’t beat a field that was amazing, yet it’s hard to knock what he did on the whole.
The ante-post market has certainly made an opinion on the two, as JANGO BAIE is 4/1 and THE JUKEBOX MAN is 6/1 for the King George.
Either way, these two were very good this weekend, and if they take on GAELIC WARRIOR, FACT TO FILE, FASTORLSOW, and maybe even BANBRIDGE at Kempton, what a race that could be.
ON THE STEEL
Not many horses win Grade 1s on the bridle. Usually when they do, they win by 10 lengths, hard-held, because they are simply the best.
GREY DAWNING’s success in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase was different. His opponents, ROYALE PAGAILLE and HANDSTANDS, were keeping him honest down the home straight, but he almost just taunted them, laughing in their faces as their jockeys rowed away and Harry Skelton sat motionless.
It was simply a great ride from Skelton. Last year, he maybe asked too much too soon, and that’s why he didn’t get home, but this year, he kept him right on the ball and allowed him to save enough when it mattered.
It was as great effort from the horse. Dan Skelton was as keen as you could be about one in the Betfair Chase, and he won like a good thing, fair and square. Now, connections can dream of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and Dan said: “He did everything I expected and more. He's been absolutely brilliant. I thought he was going to put up a big performance and he did just that. It's an amazing day.
"I came away from this race last year thinking it was the one that got away. We came back this year hoping the ground would be different and we'd get a different result and he's come back better. We always knew he would get better and better.
"He definitely stays the trip and last year he had such a hard race in this, but he hasn't this time. There'll be one run in between and it will probably be the Cotswold Chase, providing the ground isn't too bad. He can't go right-handed and I may even take a trip to Ireland for the Savills Chase, although I wouldn't be afraid if I had to go straight there.
"I'm not saying he should be favourite for the Gold Cup and he's got to climb the ladder again, but after that performance they'll be looking at us, thinking we're players."
Above all else, he is another addition to what could be a great Gold Cup scene this year. Him and all the King George runners could well show up in March, and we’d have another good Gold Cup to add to the list of great renewals. He does like Cheltenham a lot, in fairness, so that’s something he has in the locker.
As for the Savills, we think he won’t go there. With Skelton wanting as much prize money as possible in the UK, why would you go into the Irish’s back yard and take them on?
Go to the Cotswold and wait until March for a pop at GALOPIN DES CHAMPS. Simple.
Anyway, GREY DAWNING is a super nice horse, and he is very likeable. He’s honest, and he can definitely place in a Gold Cup. 16/1.
WEEKEND EYE-CATCHERS
KABRAL DU MATHAN – SATURDAY 13.15 HAYDOCK
Yes, we are putting KABRAL DU MATHAN, a horse who bolted up by 12 lengths, as an eye-catcher, but we have reason to do so. He was very good, and we think he is a potential Stayers’ Hurdle horse. Dan Skelton also thinks the same, as he said: "We're lucky to have inherited him in such good shape and hopefully he's a horse who can continue to progress as he goes up in trip.
"I think he'll go to the Relkeel and if he did well in that he'd go straight to Cheltenham. I think he's a potential Stayers' Hurdle horse." After he won at Kempton last year, he looked a bit special, and he’s now won over 2m3f having been campaigned over two miles last season. He is so unexposed now, and with the Stayers’ Hurdle scene looking a bit open, he could break through. He’s quite nice, and we’re excited about him going forward.
HORACES PEARL – SATURDAY 14.25 HAYDOCK
Another who could be one for Cheltenham (if they plan him correctly) he HORACES PEARL. He has been campaigned like a nice horse for Fergal O’Brien, and this was his first run of the season. He ran over three miles for the first time, and he ran okay, but he maybe didn’t see it out. Whether this was stamina or fitness, who knows, but he still travelled with promise for a while. He has a mark of 135 which should drop by Tuesday. He’s definitely got a handicap in him, and if he does stay (would like to see them try again with him), he could well go down the Pertemps route with him. Intriguing.
RISK ON
A good punting day Saturday, today we only like one:
13.25 HANSARD
Not far behind JP’s on best hurdle form and he’s ready to go today. If Hendo’s takes to fences second time he could just be too hard to beat, but given he didn’t first time, and the fact he may have targets ahead, Moore’s seems a great value play at 9’s.
