Equinties - Kempton gamble lands!

Gm

I've decided I'm going to start each edition of this newsletter with a 'letter from the CEO' style opening. This effectively gives me free reign to ad-lib the fuck out of this and give you a nice little insight into what's going on in the beautiful minds of the geniuses that are BGP Capital (and absolutely make up excuses for bad bets) leading me nicely onto...

WHAT THE FUCK WAS YESTERDAY ABOUT?

You knew we were close to a big day yesterday. I know you knew that. Do you know how I know you knew that? I could feel your pain on Twitter.

We didn't have one bit of negative feedback on those punts yesterday because it was quite clear to see we were on the right horses.

Your emotional chimp: "We weren't on the right horses you dick, we lost" 

The rational human: ‘yeh but they were all the best horses, and all SHOULD have won’.

If I went back in time, I wouldn’t change a thing. Okay, I might chuck William Pyle off but I’d 100% be backing those horses in those races, every day of the week. The A* setup was there just without the yield. That's trading. It’s one of the easier days to manage emotionally because we weren’t far off at all, ultimately meaning you don’t end up with the anxiety and anger derived from questioning your entire ability to pick fast, fluffy brown animals steered by tiny humans for money. You’re just a little butthurt because you know things should have gone your way. Your ability to turn negatives (the result) into positives (fuck me, I was close to a pay day – my methodology/info must be bang on) is a crucial part of emotional intelligence and consequently long-term ability to win.

Headline roundup

FOX fights Dog

Yesterday’s last race of the day saw a Finn dog selection, Famous Dynasty clash with the book's biggest gamble for months, I DOUBT THAT at Kempton. The latter picked up the victory, having been backed in from roughly 33/1 to be sent off as the 11/4 favorite and was trainer, Jimmy Fox’s, first winner since 2019. PROPER GAMBLE. Laughably, Bet365’s Pat Cooney believed market weakness was the reason for the movement and tried to give punters a bum steer away from it: 

Godolphin’s new strategy *cough cough*

Epsom Deby's successor, Adayar, will miss next month’s Coronation Cup so the Godolphin team can spread out their success?

Well, no. Godolphin’s tactics aren’t that ‘calculated’, ADAYAR has been spotted coughing so has been assigned a new target further down the line in the shape of the Prince of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot. Stablemate Manobo has subsequently shot into favouritism ahead of Pyledriver and Alpinista.

Further news:

Harry Skelton’s better half, Bridget Andrews found out that she had broken her neck in three places yesterday, two weeks on from the fall that had caused the injury.

More wallets were opened at the Doncaster Spring Sale, with Harold Kirk splashing £250,000 on a horse called Porthill for the great man, Willie Mullins. The horse in question is a Flemensfirth four-year-old out of a Presenting mare. Woof!

Irish trainer, Kieran Cotter, has been fined a total of £35,000 by the IHRB after an inspection of his yard revealed some “serious misconduct” had occurred.

Worth a read:

Quotes to note

“She remains exciting, and the best is yet to come.” - Holly Doyle’s husband on MY ASTRA.

“I have never been as strong as this.” - Wesley Ward commented on his Royal Ascot Battalion whose headline act is the daughter of US Navy Flag, LOVE REIGNS who will run in the Queen Mary Stakes. WW has won this race 3 times since 2015 and has had 3 second-place finishes.

Today's best stats: 

The last 4 winners of the 13.00 have all went off at an SP of 6/4 and shorter. Gamble horse, CLEAR THE RUNWAY is short af and the trend says he obliges.

14.50 see’s Dave’s ex-driver and Varian team up on fave. ASRAABB. Trainer/jock combo win > 1 in 3 at track.

Not favoured in the market to follow up, but Hughes and Pogson team up again on MARAJMAN in the 14.40 having won lto. Hughes is 5 from 8 for yard all time.

Sarah Humphrey is 2 from 4 in handicap chases at Market Rasen and sends RAILWAY MUICE to do the job today in the 15.40. The horse has not long been with Sarah, joining in September last year but has found a new depth to his ability having won 4 of 8 races for new connections.

18.15. Appleby lands >1 in 3 with 3yo's at Sandown and although the yield to £1 stakes wouldn't be enough to get out of bed for, stats say DECIDUOUS wins.

Haggas couldn’t be in better form and has only one runner today, MY PROSPERO in the big Listed race at Sandown. He lands well over 1 in 3 Listed and Group races at the course and sends a horse from a family he’s already successful with this week being out of MY TITANIA and a half bro to yesterday’s winner, MY ASTRA. (My Titania was bred by Sunderland Holding owned by the Tsui family who are responsible for breeding super sire, SEA THE STARS. What a family).

Stronge and Ray Dawson have a very bullish sr of 50% together at Chelmsford and team up on LAKE SAND who needs to find form again in the 19.35.

Risk On

Aside from being a good stat, I think MY PROSPERO is a full bet today and backed him last night at 11/4 after stupidly pussying out of the My Titania double I’d been thinking about all yesterday.

We’re looking at one more bet today which will be posted on Twitter otherwise the equine markets looks quite bearish for getting risk on.

Don’t force bets. It's better to protect the bank for another day.