Equinties - Ju

Gm Equinauts

We got it wrong yesterday but that’s horse racing. Our bad.

As long as you factor in L’s with your bank management, don't chase the rainbow and stick to the prog, you can dust yourself off and get it back.

Remember, there's nothing more beta than crying over a bet.

Lets dive in.

BGP FANTASY LEAGUE COMP

We’ve been hyping up the TOTE’s new Fantasy game since we found it. Why? Simply because there is nothing else out there now which can help people cage the betting chimp while maintaining an emotional interest in the big races of the day.

People bet way too much and the Fantasy allows you to get limited risk on, fill your brain up with the dope it craves and still be in the mix for a big win.

If we hit 400 stables, top of the BGP private league get’s a new ‘GM’ cap.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

A taste of someone else's medicine

It could be a good day for George Boughey in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes later, but that would be a welcome turnaround for him after disaster struck his July meeting plans with a medication mix up leaving him runner-less in todays only other Group race at Newmarket, the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes.

SOPRANO, 3rd in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, was withdrawn from the contest yesterday after she was given medication meant for another horse.

The medication given to her was to treat a similar looking horse for an ulcer, something that is allowed to be used, but contains substances that are prohibited in the system of a racehorse only on the day of the race.

Highclere MD Harry Herbert has said “it's simply a staffing error on this occasion it's embarrassing for George and it's a shocker for the fillie’s shareholders, but we have to turn the page and move on”.

Kitt’s under the bus

Well, Dylan Kitts has well and truly been thrown under the bus. I mean he’s stupid for getting caught but wow.

This newsletter expressed our view on the situation; he was under instruction. The only thing he did wrong was be terrible at acting.

The trainer and owner are to blame, end of.

BIG RACE PREVIEW

14.25 GROUP 2 DUCHESS OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES

STAR OF MYSTERY is from a great female family and by KODIAC. Dam was a Listed winner over 6f, she’s turning out to be one of Sheikhy Mo’s best mares having produced ALTHIQA who was a dual Grade 1 winner, MYSTERIOUS NIGHT who won a Grade 1 at 2 and was group placed and now this filly who a listed race on her last start by 4 lengths.

PERSIAN DREAMER looked very good on debut and then ran a touch disappointing on her second start over 5f on quick ground. She bounced back to run a good race over 6f at royal Ascot and can hopefully build on that. Ground might be a bit lively for her (unless Prosser has anything to do with it)

WOODHAY WONDER only cost 26,000gns, she looks a nice filly so it was a good buy although it will be hard for her today unless she has improved a lot since her second run. She already improved 17lbs on RP ratings from her debut to her second start and the trainer doesn’t over face them early on. Interesting contender but looks up against it.

THANKSBUTNOTHANKS is by first season sire TEN SOVEREIGNS. She flashes her tail when she’s at the business end which doesn’t always fill us with confidence as she may be keeping a bit back for herself. This is a good chance for some place black type.

Verdict: STAR OF MYSTERY has all the right credentials but no price.

14.40 GROUP 3 SUMMER STAKES 

SWINGALONG is the short priced fave for this at 15/8. She was a big priced winner of the Gr2 Lowther Stakes at York, important from a betting perspective that she has already proven herself on the Knavesmire. A mighty 3rd in the Gr1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot recently proves that she has trained on from 2 to 3 years old.

MAMMAS GIRL is the highest rated filly in the contest, her win in the Nell Gwynn at the start of the year was impressive. The form hasn’t worked out particularly well, but she oozed a bit of class up the rail… the trouble is she's done nothing since.

ROYAL ACLAIM won the City Walls Stakes over 5f at York this time last year and was made the 5/2 favourite in the Gr1 Nunthorpe a month later. She has been put in her place after running 6th in the Gr1 and is on a revival mission.

GALE FORCE MAYA hasn’t looked like herself this year. However she has won a Listed race at York and a couple of Class 2 handicaps at the track.

JULIET SIERRA is rated 101 and the mount of Rossa Ryan. The Beckett trained filly was 5th in the Gr1 Cheveley Park Stakes as a 2yo, she had SWINGALONG just in front of her. Connections tried a mile at York for her seasonal debut and it was a disaster. Running too free. A drop in trip looks ideal today and she’s the fly in the ointment from an each way angle.

Verdict: SWINGALONG was third in the Gr1 Commonwealth Cup last time out, which was the same finishing position of FLOTUS who won this race last year. SWINGALONG ran a good race in the Fred Darling at the start of the year and holds course form, she could take some beating. JULIET SIERA may be overpriced dropping back in trip and could hit the frame.

The filly who is doing our head in this morning is MAMMAS GIRL. We’re probably biased because we gambled her on debut but although looking good on her seasonal debut at HQ, she's been so below par since. We’ll be sick if she wins now back to 6.

15.35 GROUP 1 FALMOUTH STAKES

This year's Falmouth Stakes is a very interesting contest for a number of reasons, one of them being the inclusion of rising star filly VIA SISTINA at the top of the market. She has been an absolute revelation as a 5yo for George Boughey having landed the group one pretty Polly just 13 days ago.

Newmarket is expecting rain before and after racing today, something Boughey will be very pleased to see, but the step down in trip to a mile, her first ever run at the trip, opens her up to being potentially vulnerable.

One you could take her on with is REMARQUEE for Ralph Beckett. Although her first starts this season were on soft ground, she acquitted herself usefully last time out in the Coronation Stakes on quicker ground to finish an unlucky second to TAHIYRA and with a clearer run (translated as a lack of door shutting from the winner) she arguably could have won.

At her distance of a mile, the money has started to flow in from her at 4 to one.

The supplemented horse of the race is NASHWA, a filly for John and Thady Gosden who won the Prix de Diane just over a year ago. That seems a long time ago now, however, as her recent efforts in defeat have been well below par performances, back on turf should suit, but the return to a mile seems like a Hail Mary from connections to spark improvement.

We won't look at the other horses as we feel this is really only a two horse race.

Verdict: Read this verdict carefully if playing - the race could be very ground dependant. The bet here really depends on what old Prosser has been up to overnight. If the ground goes soft with all the rain forecast, then undoubtedly VIA SISTINA is the bet.

But, big but, if the ground remains firm, the ew play on REMARQUEE is suggested to take on the hotpot. KINGMAN could quite easily sire a Group double with REMARQUEE and CRACK OF LIGHT over in Longchamp.

16.10 CLASS 3 MAIDEN STAKES (YOUNG BLOOD)

The right people are moving size on EMPEROR’S STAR and have squeezed this colt into odds in what is, on paper, such a tough race. Pedigree offers nothing on the immediate dam side, you have to look back to the second dam to find the good ones. Money says he’s obviously flying but short enough given what the oppo look like.

Next in the market is Varian’s 260k horse WARM SPELL. Remember this one:

We were given the heads up before his debut that he was very smart. He ran green, finishing a fine second behind one of Amo’s Royal Ascot horses - so form well and truly boosted and you can expect him to improve a bundle for that. A bit like the fave, you have to go to the second dam to find anything useful but we know this horse is good.

Like most of Balding’s debutant's ARABIC LEGEND will most likely need the run but one to track. He’s by DUBAWI out of a good mare. Close to being the smartest ped in the race.

Verdict: Some real size movers are on this Godolphin fave and the whispers are hard to ignore. Baldings has a lovely pedigree but might need the run. At 7/2 we’d be tempted to do a filthy ew on WARM SPELL so at least you cover most of the loss if this fave can't be beat.

STATS OF THE DAY

No stand out stats today.

RISK ON

There’ll be a couple of plays tweeted for the slop at Chepstow and we think you won't go far wrong with the preview horses for chimp acca’s or the Fantasy. Single is:

15.15 SYMBOLOGY

Cox is on fire and this girl is by rocket sire HAVANA GREY and a half to EL CABALLO. On pedigree is standout in this race. Blood play only so 7/4 half bet.

EL CABALLO has won for us plenty so why desert his half sister (who on pedigree could be better):

Todays lev for a bet should be EQUITY LAW at 11/10 in the 18.20.